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Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights NRL Grand Final 2026 Tips - Knights To Keep It Close

Ryan Tucker

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Fact Checked by Jeremy Darke

Last updated: Fri. 02 Oct. 2026 14:52

Ryan Tucker 02 Oct. 2026

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Roosters are favorites, but Knights +7.5 offers best value due to close matchups.
Expect a high-scoring game - take total points over 42.5.
Best anytime tryscorer picks: Dom Young (Knights) & Daniel Tupou (Roosters).

Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights NRL Grand Final 2026 Tips

Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights, NRL Grand Final 2026 - Expert Prediction (Updated)

Twelve months ago Newcastle were holding the wooden spoon. On Sunday night they run out in a Grand Final. The Roosters should finish the job and lift premiership number 16, but a 7.5-point head start is too many to hand a Knights side that has spent the last three weeks proving everyone wrong.

Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights, NRL Grand Final 2026 - Expert Prediction (Updated)
Head to Head Stats
Sydney Roosters Form Analysis
Newcastle Knights Form Analysis
Sydney Roosters v Newcastle Knights Team News & Team Lists

This is the classic experience versus belief Grand Final. The Roosters have Trent Robinson, who is 3 from 3 as a Grand Final coach, and a spine of James Tedesco, Daly Cherry-Evans and Sam Walker. Newcastle have just one player in their 17 who has ever played in a Grand Final, Dane Gagai. On paper that gap is huge, and it is the main reason the Roosters are the right pick to win.

The question for bettors is not who wins though. It is whether the Roosters can win by 8 or more, and history says that is harder than it looks. Since 2019, only the 2022 Panthers have started as 7.5-point favourites or bigger in a Grand Final and covered. The Roosters were 7.5-point favourites against Canberra in 2019, won 14-8 and still failed to cover. Grand Finals are pressure games, and pressure games tend to stay tight.

Newcastle's finals run points the same way. They have played three straight sudden-death games and won all three, beating South Sydney 20-10, the Warriors 12-10 at Eden Park and then Penrith 22-14. The Penrith win was the one that should change how this team is viewed. The Knights were down to 12 men from the 36th minute and still kept the Panthers scoreless for the entire second half. A side that can defend like that with 12 does not usually fold with 13 on the biggest stage.

The head-to-head backs it up. The Roosters have won the last 6 against Newcastle, but 4 of the last 5 were decided by 4 points or fewer, including a 23-22 field goal win in Round 21 when the Knights were missing Kalyn Ponga and lost two more players during the game. Ponga, Bradman Best and Dane Gagai are all named this time.

Take Newcastle +7.5 and the Game Total over 42.5. Dom Young and Daniel Tupou are the anytime tryscorer plays.

Only the 2022 Panthers have started as 7.5-point favourites or bigger and covered in a Grand Final since 2019, while the 2019 Roosters won 14-8 as 7.5-point favourites and missed the line.
4 of the last 5 Roosters v Knights games have been decided by 4 points or fewer.
Newcastle have won three straight knockout finals and held Penrith scoreless in the second half with 12 men.
Both 2026 meetings cleared 42.5, and 2 of the last 3 Grand Finals have gone over the number.
Dom Young has scored in 4 straight games and has 5 tries in 3 games at Accor Stadium this season.
Daniel Tupou has scored in 2 straight games and 3 of his last 4, and is the Roosters' best aerial target.

Head to Head Stats

The Roosters have won the last 6 games against Newcastle, but this has been a much tighter rivalry than that record suggests. Across the last 5 meetings the average margin is just 4.6 points, and 4 of those 5 games were decided by 4 points or fewer. Newcastle would have covered a 7.5-point start in 4 of those 5 games.

The two games this season showed both sides of Newcastle. In Round 7 at Allianz Stadium the Knights led 24-12 at halftime behind a Fletcher Hunt hat-trick, before the Roosters piled on 26 unanswered points to win 38-24. In Round 21 at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle led 16-10 in the second half and were level 22-22 with seven minutes left before Daly Cherry-Evans kicked a 77th-minute field goal. Both games went over the Game Total on offer here.

Sydney Roosters Form Analysis

The Roosters have found form at exactly the right time. Before the last fortnight they had lost 4 straight, including a 19-12 qualifying final loss to Penrith, but they have since hit back with a 46-10 demolition of Cronulla and a 36-20 win over the Dolphins at Suncorp Stadium in the preliminary final.

Mark Nawaqanitawase has been the headline act, with 5 tries in his last 3 games, including a 90-metre intercept to open the scoring against the Dolphins. He plays his final rugby league game on Sunday before heading to rugby union in Japan, and it is also Daly Cherry-Evans' last NRL game before he joins Hull FC. There will be plenty of emotion in the Roosters camp.

Sam Walker is back from his syndesmosis injury and Victor Radley is available after taking the early plea, so the Roosters are close to full strength. The only concern is Connor Watson, who failed a HIA against the Dolphins and needs clearance to play. The Roosters also have two extra days to prepare after playing on Friday night, which is an edge in a fourth straight week of finals footy.

Newcastle Knights Form Analysis

Newcastle's run has been remarkable. They finished 7th, lost their last two regular-season games to Manly and the Warriors, then won three straight sudden-death finals, conceding just 34 points across the three games.

The preliminary final win over Penrith was the best of the lot. Sandon Smith, who came through the Roosters system, scored twice and kicked three goals, including a late intercept and 80-metre run to seal the game. The Knights were down to 12 men from the 36th minute and still held the Panthers scoreless in the second half.

The cost of that game is Phoenix Crossland, who has a four-game ban for the hip-drop on Nathan Cleary. Harrison Graham, who covered at hooker in Round 26, is expected to start. Newcastle also have less time to recover after playing on Sunday, but this group now has a self-belief it simply did not have earlier in the year, and with Kalyn Ponga, Bradman Best and Dominic Young all in the side, they have enough strike to trouble the Roosters' edges.

Sydney Roosters v Newcastle Knights Team News & Team Lists

Sydney Roosters Team News: The Roosters are unchanged from the side that beat the Dolphins in the preliminary final. Connor Watson has been named on the bench but must be cleared by an independent neurologist after failing a HIA at Suncorp Stadium. Benaiah Ioelu, Tommy Talau and Egan Butcher are the extended squad. Lindsay Collins will play his 150th NRL game.

Newcastle Knights Team News: Phoenix Crossland misses through suspension, with Harrison Graham expected to start at hooker after filling the role in Round 26. One of Diesel Hagan, Kyle McCarthy or Elijah Salesa-Leaumoana will be added to the six-man bench. Dane Gagai is the only Knights player with Grand Final experience.

Full Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights Team Lists

Verdict

NRL 2026 Grand Final

Take Newcastle +7.5 and the Game Total over 42.5. Dom Young and Daniel Tupou are the anytime tryscorer plays.

Newcastle +7.5

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