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Today's NRL Grand Final Predictions - Roosters vs Knights Ultimate Guide for all Value Betting Tips
The 2026 NRL Grand Final features the Sydney Roosters as favourites against the resilient Newcastle Knights, who reached the decider after several close wins. This comprehensive guide analyses every major betting market: the smartest plays on line and total points, top tryscorer picks, Clive Churchill Medal predictions focusing on Sam Walker and Kalyn Ponga, and best Same Game Multi options. Whether you’re seeking safe bets or chasing huge odds, this all-inclusive preview highlights recommended strategies, key stats, and the various bookmaker promos available for the showpiece event.
- Full betting guide for Sunday's NRL Grand Final between the Roosters & Knights
- We've put together our best bets for the GF in one ultimate tips page
- Predictions include Line, Total Points, First & Anytime Tryscorers, Clive Churchill Winner, SGMs & more
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The biggest game of the NRL season has arrived, with the Sydney Roosters and Newcastle Knights set to battle for the 2026 premiership at Accor Stadium on Sunday night.
We've covered the Grand Final from virtually every betting angle throughout the week and this is where we're bringing our leading selections together in one place. From the match line and total points to anytime and first tryscorers, the Clive Churchill Medal, Same Game Multis, longshot value SGMs and bookmaker specials, this is our ultimate betting guide to the GF.
The Roosters head into the decider as favourites, but Newcastle have won three consecutive sudden-death thrillers to reach the Grand Final. The Knights' three finals games have all been decided by 1-12 points and produced 36 total points or fewer, while four of the last five meetings between these teams have been decided by four points or less. At the same time, Sydney arrive with serious attacking firepower after winning their last two finals by an average margin of 26 points.
So how will Sunday night's premiership decider play out? We've got you covered with our best NRL Grand Final betting tips across every major market.
NRL Grand Final Tips - Four Main Plays
These are our four leading plays for the Grand Final, covering the line, total points and two anytime tryscorers.
| Bet | Market | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle +7.5 | Line | $1.87 | CrownBet |
| Over 42.5 | Game Total | $1.91 | BetRaven |
| Dominic Young | Anytime Tryscorer | $2.45 | Dabble |
| Daniel Tupou | Anytime Tryscorer | $1.95 | Neds |
Newcastle +7.5 gives us some insurance in a fixture that has regularly produced tight finishes, while Over 42.5 provides a contrasting angle to the historically low-scoring nature of NRL Grand Finals.
On the tryscoring front, Young has scored 23 tries in 26 games this season and crossed in six of his last seven, while Tupou has scored 15 tries in 17 games, including at least one in each of his last six night games in Sydney.
For information on how we landed on the four above tips, you can read our full Roosters vs Knights betting preview.
NRL Grand Final - First Tryscorer Tips
First tryscorer betting offers much bigger prices, and we've identified three players ranging from one of the competition's leading finishers to a $34 forward longshot.
| Player | Market | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Nawaqanitawase | First Tryscorer | $7.50 | BetRaven |
| Fletcher Sharpe | First Tryscorer | $13.00 | Dabble |
| Lindsay Collins | First Tryscorer | $34.00 | Neds |
Nawaqanitawase has been one of Sydney's biggest attacking threats, scoring 20 tries in 22 appearances this season, including five across his last three games. Sharpe provides the value option from Newcastle's backline after scoring 13 tries this season, with eight of those coming as either the first or second try of the match.
Collins is the genuine longshot at $34. The Roosters prop has already crossed against both Cronulla and the Dolphins during this finals series, while he also scored for Queensland in the opening State of Origin game earlier this season.
Read more at our dedicated NRL Grand Final First Tryscorer Tips page.
NRL Grand Final - Clive Churchill Medal Predictions
We're concentrating on two of the most influential players in the Grand Final for the Clive Churchill Medal.
| Player | Market | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walker | Clive Churchill Medal | $4.50 | BetRaven |
| Kalyn Ponga | Clive Churchill Medal | $7.00 | Dabble |
History points strongly towards the game's key playmakers. Four of the last five Clive Churchill Medals have gone to either a halfback or fullback, while 36 of the previous 40 winners have come from the victorious team.
That puts Walker and Ponga firmly in the conversation. If Sydney justify favouritism, Walker should be heavily involved in directing their attack. Conversely, it's difficult to envisage Newcastle completing their remarkable finals run without Ponga producing an influential performance from fullback.
For more reasoning behind these two selections, check out our full Clive Churchill Medal Predictions page.
NRL Grand Final - Best Same Game Multis
We've put together four CrownBet SGMs for the Grand Final, ranging from a $5.50 margin and total-points combination through to a $101 longshot built around three anytime tryscorers.
| Same Game Multi | Legs | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime Tryscorer SGM | Dominic Young 1+ Try; Daniel Tupou 1+ Try; James Tedesco 1+ Try | $10.00 | CrownBet |
| Anytime Tryscorer Longshot SGM | Jermaine McEwen 1+ Try; Siua Wong 1+ Try; Sam Walker 1+ Try | $101.00 | CrownBet |
| Margin/Total Points Double | Roosters 1-12; Over 42.5 Points | $5.50 | CrownBet |
| Result/Tryscorer SGM | Knights +7.5; Dominic Young 1+ Try; Daniel Tupou 1+ Try | $7.50 | CrownBet |
The idea is to provide different levels of risk rather than forcing every Grand Final angle into one oversized SGM.
Looking for more stats for your own SGMs? We've compiled 35+ of our favourite trends & player stats that relate to this Sunday's showpiece.
NRL Grand Final - Best Value SGMs
For those wanting to chase substantially bigger odds, we've also built five longshot Grand Final SGMs around specific match scenarios. These aren't simply collections of unrelated legs - each is designed around a particular way the Grand Final could unfold.
| Value SGM | Key Scenario | Odds & Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Chooks In A Close One | Roosters 1-12, Under 50.5 + Tupou, Young & Wong 1+ Try | $126 @ Picklebet |
| Cherry On Top | DCE Try/Clive Churchill + Under 50.5 + Nawaqanitawase & Toia 1+ Try | $162 @ Ladbrokes |
| Roosters Blowout | Roosters -19.5 + Under 50.5 + Walker, Toia, Young 1+ Try + Walker Clive Churchill | $375 @ Ladbrokes |
| Longshot Tryscorers | Sharpe First/Second Try + McEwen & Collins Anytime | $501 @ Dabble |
| Knights Complete Fairytale | Knights 1-12 + Under 50.5 + Best, Manuleleua & Tedesco 1+ Try + Ponga Clive Churchill | $814 @ Neds |
The $126 Chooks In A Close One is built around arguably the most conventional result: Sydney winning by 1-12 in a relatively controlled Grand Final. Six of the last seven Grand Finals have been decided by a 1-12 margin, while four of the last five Roosters-Knights clashes have been decided by four points or fewer.
At the other end of the spectrum, the $375 Roosters Blowout assumes Newcastle's exhausting finals campaign finally catches up with them, while the $814 Knights Fairytale backs Ponga and company to complete their extraordinary run with another narrow victory.
For all the key stats & reasoning behind these selections, check out our full threading the needle NRL Grand Final Same Game Multi special.
NRL Grand Final - Betting Promos & Specials
Bookmakers have also released a substantial range of Grand Final-specific markets beyond the traditional match odds.
Daily Dabbles + Clive Double ChanceBet on the NRL Grand Final with DabbleBet Here
The dabble.com.au referral code is BETSAU. 18+. T&Cs apply.
Unibet's Featured NRL Grand Final SpecialsBet on the NRL Grand Final with UnibetBet Here
18+ only. T&Cs apply. Stay in Control. Gamble Responsibly. Think! About your choices. Call Gambling Help on 1800 858 858 or visit www.gamblinghelponline.org.au.
CrownBet's NRL GF Featured SGMsBet on the NRL Grand Final with CrownBetBet Here
The Crownbet referral code is BETS. 18+. T&Cs apply. Chances are you're about to lose.
With everything from conventional line and tryscorer betting through to triple-figure longshot SGMs, there are plenty of ways to approach the final NRL game of 2026.
Our dedicated NRL Grand Final Betting Specials & Promos guide breaks down the leading offers from each bookmaker.
Verdict
Our four best bets for the key NRL Grand Final betting markets can be found below.
Knights +7.5
Line
$1.87 - 3 Units
Crownbet is built for the Big Moments
use referral code BETS
The CrownBet referral code is BETS. 18+. T&Cs apply. Chances are you're about to lose.
Daniel Tupou
Anytime Tryscorer
$1.95 - 2 Units
Take it to the Neds Level
Register with code BLACKBOOK
The Neds.com.au code is BLACKBOOK. 18+ only. T&Cs apply. THINK. IS THIS A BET YOU REALLY WANT TO PLACE? Set a deposit limit.
Sam Walker
Clive Churchill Medal Winner
$4.50 - 1 Unit
Newest Australian Bookie
Referral Code: bets500
The BetRaven referral code is bets500. 18+. T&Cs apply.
Mark Nawaqanitawase
First Tryscorer
$7.50 - 1 Unit
Newest Australian Bookie
Referral Code: bets500
The BetRaven referral code is bets500. 18+. T&Cs apply.
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