Holger Rune vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Perricard the value bet in R16 showdown

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Mon 06 Oct 2025 23:45

Andrew Hendrie 06 Oct 2025

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Holger Rune vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard predictions for Tuesday's ATP Shanghai R16
Perricard beat Rune in the Basel semi-finals last year
Perricard is coming off the biggest win of his career over No. 4 Fritz in his last match
Rune has never been past the R16 in Shanghai & his last three defeats have come vs players outside the top 65
The match is scheduled to start around 5.30pm AEDT on Tuesday October 7

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Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (Photo by Getty Images)

Holger Rune vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard will be targeting his first ever Masters 1000 quarter-final when he faces World No. 11 Holger Rune in the R16 in Shanghai on Tuesday.

Holger Rune vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Head To Head
Holger Rune Form
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Form
Live Stream

It's been a tough season for Mpetshi Perricard after his breakout 2024, but the big-serving Frenchman is finding some form again in Shanghai, advancing to the R16 of a Masters 1000 event for the first time and registering his maiden top 10 victory after taking out Taylor Fritz in the previous round. Mpetshi Perricard is showing no signs of any discomfort in the brutally hot and humid Shanghai conditions and I think he's the value bet in this matchup against Rune, who has notoriously struggled with fitness and physical issues in the past.

Rune has been well below his best for the better part of the last two years now and he's had a fortunate draw so far in Shanghai, facing the horrendously out-of-form Sebastian Baez and Ugo Humbert, with the latter a player he has a 5-0 record against (his best matchup on tour). Mpetshi Perricard beat Rune en route to the biggest title of his career last year in Basel and he's looking in similarly dangerous form. Happy to back the giant-serving Frenchman with a +2.5 start and outright.

Head To Head

Currently locked at 1-1. Mpetshi Perricard was a 7-6 6-4 winner in the semi-finals of Basel last year before Rune returned serve in the R64 of the Canada Masters earlier this year, prevailing 7-6 6-3.

Holger Rune Form

It's been a strange old season for Rune - he's registered a 33-20 record and has shown glimpses of his best tennis, but overall, the consistency just hasn't been there.

Rune's best tennis is good enough to be ranked inside the top five and for him to compete with the likes of Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, but he hasn't been able to display it week to week.

The Dane's best moments in 2025 have been an ATP 500 title in Barcelona and a runner-up finish in Indian Wells, while he also made the R16 at the Australian Open and Roland Garros. However, Rune also suffered first and second round exits at Wimbledon and the US Open respectively, while his last three defeats have come against players ranked outside the top 65.

Rune came into Shanghai following a quarter-final exit in Tokyo to No. 86 Jenson Brooksby, but he's getting the job done so far, taking out Sebastian Baez and Ugo Humbert in straight sets to reach the R16. The 22-year-old has never been beyond this stage in Shanghai.

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Form

Mpetshi Perricard comes into this contest with a negative 16-21 record at tour-level for the season, but he did take out a Challenger title in Bordeaux which has helped him maintain a ranking inside the top 50.

After a huge breakthrough in 2024, Mpetshi Perricard has only been able to win back-to-back matches at three tour-level events this season - but he could be regaining some form again in Shanghai.

After a second round exit in Chengdu and opening round loss in Bejing, the 22-year-old is playing some of his best tennis of the year in Shanghai to make the R16 of a Masters 1000 for the first time.

Mpetshi Perricard opened his campaign with a straight sets win over Luca Nardi before recording the biggest victory of his career, upsetting World No. 4 Taylor Fritz 6-4 7-5, firing 12 aces and not facing a single break point.