Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul ATP Vienna Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Paul can challenge Alcaraz in quarter-finals

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu. 29 Oct. 2026 23:05

Andrew Hendrie 1 hour ago

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul predictions for Friday's ATP Vienna QF
Alcaraz not at his best; Paul can snatch a set & push match Over 21.5 games
Alcaraz still favoured to survive a close match in three sets
The match is scheduled to start around 1.00am AEDT on Saturday October 31

Carlos Alcaraz v Tommy Paul Live StreamWatch live online at bet365 > Tennis > ATP Vienna. T&Cs apply. Watch and bet Starts in To use the Live Streaming service you will need to be logged in and have a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. Note, under Australian law, Live Streaming is exempt from Parts 3 and 4 of the Broadcasting Services (Online Content Service Provider Rules) 2018.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul ATP Vienna Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Carlos Alcaraz remains below his best, so Tommy Paul is tipped to win a set and extend this Vienna quarter-final clash over 21.5 total games on Friday.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul ATP Vienna Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Alcaraz vs Paul Predictions & Best Bets
Alcaraz vs Paul Head To Head
Carlos Alcaraz Form Analysis
Tommy Paul Form Analysis
Alcaraz vs Paul Live Stream

I think Alcaraz is vulnerable in Vienna - he's been able to dig himself out of some tricky situations, but Paul is in great form this week and has beaten the Spaniard twice before. Paul is sneaky good indoors, while Alcaraz has yet to fully prove himself in these conditions at this time of the year.

Take Paul to win a set and push the match Over 21.5 total games as the two main plays, with Alcaraz prevailing in three offering some value.

Alcaraz vs Paul Predictions & Best Bets

Bet	Odds	Reasoning
Over 21.5 Games	$1.85 @ BetRaven	Alcaraz has seen Over 21.5 games in four of his last five matches, while Paul has gone over this total in five of his last seven. Four of the last five BO3 meetings between the pair have also seen 22+ games
Paul To Win A Set	$2.00 @ CrownBet	Alcaraz needed to save four set points vs Basilashvili in R2 & was also involved in a tiebreak vs Khachanov in R1. The Spaniard dropped sets vs Munar & Michlesen in Tokyo & lost vs Bergs in Shanghai - he's far from convincing at the moment
Alcaraz 2-1	$3.80 @ Dabble	Paul in great form, crushing Rublev & Darderi in straight sets this tournament, while he's 4-0 in his last four ATP indoor QFs - the American can make a real match of this, but Alcaraz has won the last six meetings - including at this year's US Open - and remains the favourite to advance

Alcaraz vs Paul Head To Head

Paul leds this rivalry 2-1 once upon a time, but Alcaraz is currently on a six-match winning streak.

Year	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2026	US Open	Round of 16	Outdoor Hard	Carlos Alcaraz	6–4, 6–3, 6–4
2026	Australian Open	Round of 16	Outdoor Hard	Carlos Alcaraz	7–6(8–6), 6–4, 7–5
2025	Roland Garros	Quarterfinal	Outdoor Clay	Carlos Alcaraz	6–0, 6–1, 6–4
2024	Paris Olympics	Quarterfinal	Outdoor Clay	Carlos Alcaraz	6–3, 7–6(9–7)
2024	Wimbledon	Quarterfinal	Outdoor Grass	Carlos Alcaraz	5–7, 6–4, 6–2, 6–2
2023	ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati	Round of 16	Outdoor Hard	Carlos Alcaraz	7–6(8–6), 6–7(0–7), 6–3
2023	ATP Masters 1000 Canada	Quarterfinal	Outdoor Hard	Tommy Paul	6–3, 4–6, 6–3
2023	ATP Masters 1000 Miami	Round of 16	Outdoor Hard	Carlos Alcaraz	6–4, 6–4
2022	ATP Masters 1000 Canada	Round of 32	Outdoor Hard	Tommy Paul	6–7(4–7), 7–6(9–7), 6–3

Carlos Alcaraz Form Analysis

ATP 2026 Record: 35-5
ATP Vienna Record: 5-1
Current Ranking: No. 3
Career-High Ranking: No. 1 (2022)

Injuries have taken their toll on Alcaraz this season, but his interrupted schedule could prove a blessing in disguise as he enters the biggest European indoor swing of his career feeling refreshed and determined to finish the year strongly.

The Spaniard has shown encouraging signs since returning from a wrist injury, reaching the US Open quarter-finals before capturing the title in Tokyo. However, his comeback hasn't been entirely smooth, with a straight-sets defeat to Zizou Bergs in the Shanghai Masters Round of 32 briefly halting his momentum.

Alcaraz responded positively in his Vienna opener, overcoming Karen Khachanov 6-4, 7-6(5) in a competitive encounter. The 23-year-old was particularly impressive behind his first serve, winning 35 of 44 points, and showed his composure after failing to serve out the match at 5-4 in the second set. Despite that setback, Alcaraz regrouped to claim the tiebreak and secure his place in the next round.

The seven-time major champion also faced problems in the second round against Nikoloz Basilashvili, who was in good form having won 14 of his last 17 matches at all levels. Alcaraz raced through the opening set, but squandered a break lead in the second and ultimately had to save four set points in the ensuing tiebreak before closing out the 6-1, 7-6(11) victory.

Tommy Paul Form Analysis

ATP 2026 Record: 46-20
ATP Vienna Record: 3-3
Current Ranking: No. 14
Career-High Ranking: No. 5 (2025)

It's been an underrated season for Paul - he's won a total of 46 matches, which is four better than his previous best in 2024, with only Alexander Zverev, Jannik Sinner, Daniil Medvedev and Alex de Minaur winning more matches in 2026.

Paul is making a late push for the ATP Finals, but he would need the upset here over Alcaraz and then a deep run at the Paris Masters, all the while hoping other results go his way.

But the American can only control what's in front of him and he's done that impressively this week in Vienna.

After opening with a 7-5 6-2 blitz of Andrey Rublev in the opening round, Paul continued his destructive form with a 6-1 6-1 demolition of Luciano Darderi to advance into the quarter-finals.

It's all part of a very consistent stretch of form for Paul - he's made the Cincinnati quarter-finals, US Open fourth round, Shanghai quarter-finals and Lyon semi-finals over the last couple of months.

Alcaraz vs Paul Live Stream

Watch and bet on Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul live tennis from Vienna.

You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > ATP Vienna with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.

Geo-restrictions apply, you'll need a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours to gain access. 18+ terms and conditions apply.

Verdict

Carlos Alcaraz v Tommy Paul

Paul can make this a tricky match for Alcaraz, but the Spaniard is still favoured to prevail in three.

Over 21.5

Total Games

$1.85 - 2 Units

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Paul

To Win A Set

$2.00 - 2 Units

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Alcaraz 2-1

Set Betting

$3.80 - 1 Unit

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