Andrey Rublev vs Sebastian Baez ATP Bastad Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Rublev to grind out another three-set win
Andrey Rublev faces Sebastian Baez in a highly anticipated ATP Bastad quarterfinal. Baez previously upset Rublev in 2022, but Rublev rebounded by claiming the 2023 title. Both players arrive with inconsistent form, with Rublev on a three-match losing streak and Baez looking to recapture early-season momentum. Despite Rublev’s struggles, prediction favors him to prevail in three tight sets, with Baez expected to win at least a set and the match likely exceeding 22.5 games. Streaming is available via Unibet for fans eager to watch the action.
- Andrey Rublev vs Sebastian Baez predictions for Friday's ATP Bastad quarter-final
- Rublev struggling for top form, has dropped 1+ set in last nine matches
- Rematch of 2022 Bastad semi-finals, which Baez won in straight sets
- The match is scheduled to start around 11.00pm AEST on Friday July 17
Andrey Rublev v Sebastian Baez Live StreamWatch live online at bet365 > Tennis > ATP Bastad. T&Cs apply.
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Andrey Rublev vs Sebastian Baez ATP Bastad Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Andrey Rublev continues his pursuit of a second Swedish Open title when he comes up against Sebastian Baez in the quarter-finals in Bastad on Friday.
Both players have advanced to the final in Bastad, with Baez actually upsetting Rublev before finishing runner-up in the 2022 edition. The Argentine defeated a host of great players during that run, including Fabio Fognini and Dominic Thiem.
Meanwhile, Rublev made amends for that loss by surging all the way to the title in 2023, taking out Alexander Zverev and Casper Ruud along the way.
It makes for an interesting tussle on Friday with a spot in the semi-finals up for grabs.
Rublev hasn't been playing well lately - he arrived in Bastad on a three-match losing streak before edging out Andrea Pellegrino 7-6(3), 6-7(7), 6-3 in his opener. That means Rublev has now dropped at least one set in nine consecutive matches.
Baez is coming off a solid straight sets victory over Jesper de Jong in the second round and the Argentine is always a very tough competitor on the dirt.
With Rublev's recent track record of dropping sets, I'm backing Baez to win a set and for the match to exceed 22.5 total games. Smaller stake on Rublev to prevail in another three-setter.
Rublev vs Baez Stats & Trends
- Rublev has lost three of his last four matches
- Rublev has lost 1+ set in his last nine matches
- Rublev has won seven of his last 10 quarter-finals, with three defeats coming vs top five players
- Baez has a 4-0 record in quarter-finals in 2026, but a 1-4 record in quarter-finals vs top 20 players
- Baez has seen Over 22.5 games in two of his last three best-of-three set matches
Rublev vs Baez Head To Head
| Year | Winner | Event | Round | Surface | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Sebastian Báez | Bastad | Semifinal | Outdoor Clay | 6–2, 6–4 |
Andrey Rublev Form Analysis
- 2026 Record: 22-13
- ATP Bastad Record: 7-2
- Current Ranking: No. 16
- Career-High Ranking: No. 5 (2021)
Rublev has put together a respectable 2026 campaign, but the consistency that once saw him challenge the game's elite hasn't quite been there. The Russian remains entrenched around the top 20, yet he's struggled to generate the momentum needed to climb back towards the top 10.
His strongest result came with a runner-up finish in Barcelona, while he also reached the semi-finals in Hong Kong, Doha and Dubai. A quarter-final appearance at the Rome Masters further highlighted his ability on clay, although he hasn't converted those deep runs into a title.
The Grand Slams have proven frustrating. Rublev exited in the third round of the Australian Open, reached the fourth round at Roland Garros before falling short and suffered a surprise opening-round defeat to Roman Safiullin at Wimbledon.
Arriving in Bastad on a three-match losing streak, Rublev was forced to dip deep in order to grind out a three-set victory over World No. 139 Andrea Pellegrino. Rublev wasted three match points in the second set before completing a 7-6(3), 6-7(7), 6-3 victory in two hours and 33 minutes.
Sebastian Baez Form Analysis
- 2026 Record: 19-15
- ATP Bastad Record: 7-3
- Current Ranking: No. 56
- Career-High Ranking: No. 18 (2024)
Baez put together a superb start to the season, but his form has tailed off over the last couple of months and he'll be determined for a deep run here to generate some positive momentum again.
Indeed, the Argentine won his opening seven matches of the season, including reaching the Auckland final, while he also made semi-finals in Buenos Aires and Santiago.
However, Baez couldn't find his best tennis on European clay, losing six of his last seven matches on the dirt before an opening round defeat at Wimbledon.
Returning to Bastad, Baez struggled in a 4-6 6-4 6-1 opening round win over World No. 1360 Max Dahlin, but produced a much-improved performance to defeat an in-form Jesper de Jong 6-4 6-2 to make the quarter-finals.
Rublev vs Baez Live Stream
Watch and bet on Andrey Rublev vs Sebastian Baez live tennis from Bastad.
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Verdict
Rublev isn't at his best, so Baez can win a set and push this Over 22.5 games. Will still back Rublev's forehand to hit him out of trouble in a three-set victory.
Baez
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Rublev 2-1
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