Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Berrettini Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Demon to edge Berrettini & make Vienna semis

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu 23 Oct 2025 23:43

Andrew Hendrie 23 Oct 2025

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Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Berrettini predictions for Friday's ATP Vienna quarter-final
De Minaur has won 10 of his last 12 indoor matches
De Minaur has a tour-leading 39 match wins on hardcourt this season
Berrettini has lost all three of his quarter-finals in 2025 vs top 20 players
The match is scheduled to start at 10.30pm AEDT on Friday October 24

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Alex de Minaur (Photo by Getty Images)

Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Berrettini Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Alex de Minaur continues his bid for the Vienna title and valuable points for ATP Finals qualification when he comes up against former top 10 player Matteo Berrettini in the Erste Bank Open quarter-finals in Vienna on Friday.

Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Berrettini Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Head To Head
Alex de Minaur Form
Matteo Berrettini Form
Live Stream

It's been yet another ultra-consistent season for de Minaur - nobody has more match wins on hardcourt than the Aussie (39), while he's positioned strongly in seventh spot in the ATP Race for the year-end finals in Turin. De Minaur has navigated a pair of Austrian wildcards to reach the last eight in Vienna, but faces a considerable step up in class against Berrettini, who continues another comeback from injury as he seeks to get back to the upper echelon of tennis.

There's no doubt Berrettini has the ability to win this match - he can basically topple anyone at his best. However, fitness concerns continue to plague the hard-hitting Italian and coming off a three-hour battle with Cameron Norrie in the previous round isn't ideal. I expect Berrettini to make this very competitive, but de Minaur's fitness and overall consistency should give him the edge.

Head To Head

Berrettini leads 3-1 and won their most-recent meeting 7-6 6-3 in the Miami Masters quarter-finals earlier this year.

Alex de Minaur Form

De Minaur comes into this contest with a 52-19 record on the season and maintaining his ranking inside the top 10 at No. 7, just one spot off his career-high.

As mentioned, nobody has more tour-level wins on hardcourt this season than de Minaur's 39, with the Aussie picking up his 10th career title in Washington, along with making the quarter-finals of the Australian Open and US Open and finishing runner-up in Rotterdam.

The 26-year-old continues to get the most out of his abilities, but taking that next step and consistently challenging for Masters 1000 and Grand Slam titles has to be the goal now.

But first and foremost, de Minaur will be looking to make it back-to-back Vienna semi-finals. He's been untroubled so far in the Austrian city, defeating wildcards Jurij Rodionov and Filip Misolic in straight sets.

Matteo Berrettini Form

It's been yet another injury-riddled season for Berrettini, who heads into this clash with a 17-15 record on the year and down at No. 59 in the world - a far cry from his highest-rank of No. 6.

Berrettini just can't seem to catch a break as far as injury are concerned - he missed both Roland Garros and the US Open, while he was bundled out in the opening round of Wimbledon.

The Italian's best result in 2025 came at the Miami Masters, where he enjoyed a good run to the quarter-finals, beating de Minaur before falling to Taylor Fritz in three.

Berrettini has already beaten one Aussie this week in Vienna, taking out Alexei Popyrin in straight sets in the opening round before a marathon 7-6(6), 6-7(9), 6-4 victory over Norrie to secure his spot in the last eight.

Live Stream

Watch and bet on Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Berrettini live Erste Bank Open tennis from Vienna.

You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > ATP Vienna with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.

Geo-restrictions apply, you'll need a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours to gain access. 18+ terms and conditions apply.

Verdict

Alex De Minaur v Matteo Berrettini

Berrettini has won three of the four previous meetings between the pair, but his fitness and injury concerns in 2025 leave him as the underdog here.

De Minaur can grind all day long and won't give away any cheap points - it won't be a walk in the park by any means, but the Aussie should prove too strong.