Alex de Minaur vs Daniil Medvedev Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Medvedev the value pick in Shanghai quarters

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Fri 10 Oct 2025 00:27

Andrew Hendrie 10 Oct 2025

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Alex de Minaur vs Daniil Medvedev predictions for Friday's ATP Shanghai quarter-final
Medvedev leads the H2H 7-4, winning seven of the nine hardcourt meetings
De Minaur is 13-24 vs top 20 players at Masters 1000 level
De Minaur has lost four of his six previous Masters 1000 quarter-finals
The match is scheduled to start at 9.30pm AEDT on Friday October 10

Expired

Daniil Medvedev (Photo by Getty Images)

Alex de Minaur vs Daniil Medvedev Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Another battle is on the cards for Daniil Medvedev as he comes up against Australia's Alex de Minaur in the Shanghai Masters quarter-finals on Friday night.

Alex de Minaur vs Daniil Medvedev Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Head To Head
Alex de Minaur Form
Daniil Medvedev Form
Live Stream

It promises to be an enthralling contest, with a place in the Shanghai semi-finals on the line. De Minaur has been at his ultra-consistent best since transitioning back onto hardcourt, reaching at least the quarter-finals in five of his last six tournaments - and they've all been at ATP 500 level or higher. Meanwhile, Medvedev is desperate for a resurgence after a nightmare season and he's demonstrated a noticeable improvement in both form and attitude since changing his coaching setup and arriving in Asia.

I believe this will be an energy-sapping affair, but for me, Medvedev holds all the value here. De Minaur is a genuine top 10 player these days, but the fact remains he still struggles in big moments - he's 13-24 at Masters 1000 level vs top 20 players and has lost four of his previous six quarter-finals at this level. Medvedev has beaten the Aussie seven times before and he's back in the right frame of mind - the Russian is a great chance at the upset here.

Head To Head

Medvedev leads 7-4 and has won seven of the nine previous meetings on hardcourt. De Minaur was an easy 6-2 6-2 winner on the clay of Monte Carlo in their lone 2025 clash, but Medvedev wasn't at the races that day.

Alex de Minaur Form

De Minaur continues to rack up the wins and has become just the third player behind Carlos Alcaraz and Taylor Fritz to register 50 match victories in 2025 - and the first Aussie to do so in a single season since Lleyton Hewitt in 2004.

Unsurprisingly, the Australian's best work has come on hardcourt - although he did have a nice breakthrough on clay in Monte Carlo, where he advanced into the semi-finals.

But, for the most part, de Minaur has enjoyed the bulk of his success on hard - he's made quarter-finals at the Australian Open and US Open, along with capturing his 10th career title at the ATP 500 event in Washington.

Positioned strongly to qualify for his second straight ATP Finals, de Minaur has by and largely cruised into the Shanghai quarter-finals, beating Camilo Ugo Carabelli, Kamil Majchrzak and Nuno Borges in straight sets.

Daniil Medvedev Form

It's been a wild season for Medvedev - he's compiled a 33-20 record, but was in very danger of dropping out of the top 20 until a recent reversal in form and attitude.

Sensing the need to make drastic changes, Medvedev split with his long-time coach Gilles Cervara and linked up with Thomas Johansson.

Medvedev is already seeing positives in the decision - he's won his last six completed matches, with his only defeat coming in the Beijing semi-finals when he was forced to retire against Learner Tien.

The Russian didn't need to wait long for revenge, outlasting Tien in a gruelling three-set thriller, prevailing 7-6(6), 6-7(1), 6-4 to return to the Shanghai Masters quarter-finals.

Medvedev - the 2019 Shanghai champion - and Novak Djokovic are the only former Masters 1000 and World No. 1s left in the draw.

Live Stream

Watch and bet on Alex de Minaur vs Daniil Medvedev live Shanghai Masters tennis from Shanghai.

You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > ATP Shanghai with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.

Geo-restrictions apply, you'll need a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours to gain access. 18+ terms and conditions apply.

Verdict

Alex de Minaur v Daniil Medvedev

Medvedev's pricing here is due to his horror 2025 season - but I think he's back on an upward trajectory, meaning he could be great value here.

De Minaur still struggles in big occasions and the chance to make a Masters 1000 semi-final is certainly important. I'm backing Medvedev, with added value in three.