Valentin Vacherot vs Tommy Paul ATP Shanghai Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Paul to knock out defending champion
Defending champion Valentin Vacherot faces Tommy Paul in the third round of the ATP Shanghai Masters. While Vacherot has proven his Shanghai triumph in 2025 was no fluke, pressure is on to defend his title and ranking. Paul, coming off a dominant win in his opener, is favored to edge out Vacherot if he maintains that form. The article forecasts a close match but gives the advantage to Paul to eliminate Vacherot and end his undefeated run at the tournament.
- Valentin Vacherot vs Tommy Paul predictions for Monday's ATP Shanghai R3
- Paul has won 21 of 32 matches on outdoor hardcourt, tipped to edge this
- Vacherot under pressure to defend title & ranking points
- The match is scheduled to start around 11.00pm AEDT on Monday October 12
Valentin Vacherot v Tommy Paul Live StreamWatch live online at bet365 > Tennis > ATP Shanghai. T&Cs apply.
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Valentin Vacherot vs Tommy Paul ATP Shanghai Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Tommy Paul is backed to take out defending Shanghai Masters champion Valentin Vacherot when the pair square off in the third round on Monday night.
Vacherot put together one of the most extraordinary runs in tennis history last year in Shanghai when he came from qualifying and ranked outside the top 200 to win the title.
The Monegasque has done a good job of establishing himself on the main tour over the last 12 months, proving that title was no fluke and returning to Shanghai at No. 14 in the world.
However, this time he's the hunted and under immense pressure to defend his points, with a defeat here sending him out of the top 30.
Paul has generally been very solid throughout 2026 and is a tough competitor to face when under pressure - he gives you nothing and is one of the best athletes on tour.
The American bounced back from a poor first round loss in Tokyo to ease past an in-form Adolfo Daniel Vallejo in his Shanghai opener and looks to have regained his mojo.
This should be a close contest, but the jury is out on how Vacherot handles the pressure. If Paul plays like his did in his opening match, he should edge this.
Vacherot vs Paul Stats & Trends
- Paul has a 11-4 record in his second match of tournaments this season
- Paul has a 9-6 record vs higher-ranked opponents this season
- Vacherot has a 8-9 record vs top 20 players
- Vacherot has seen Over 21.5 games in seven of his last eight matches
- Paul has seen Over 21.5 games in four of his last six best-of-three matches
Vacherot vs Paul Head To Head
This will be the first career meeting between the pair.
Valentin Vacherot Form Analysis
- 2026 ATP Record: 24-16
- ATP Shanghai Record: 8-0
- Current Ranking: No. 14
- Career-High Ranking: No. 14 (Oct 2026)
Despite battling a foot injury for a sizeable portion of 2026, Vacherot has done enough over the last 12 months to ensure he remains inside the top 40 - even if he loses this match.
Vacherot's best result came at home in the Monte Carlo Masters, where he beat the likes of Lorenzo Musetti, Alex de Minaur and Hubert Hurkacz to reach the semi-finals.
The 27-year-old has been consistent at the slams, making the third round at the Australian Open, Wimbledon and US Open, but he had to withdraw from Roland Garros with that aforementioned foot injury.
Vacherot got back to some of his best tennis last week in Tokyo when he beat Arthur Fils on his way to the semi-finals before going down to Jiri Lehecka. Returning to Shanghai, Vacherot improved to 8-0 at the tournament with an opening 6-4 7-6(5) dispatch of Sebastian Baez.
Tommy Paul Form Analysis
- 2026 ATP Record: 40-18
- ATP Shanghai Record: 5-2
- Current Ranking: No. 18
- Career-High Ranking: No. 8 (2025)
It's been a great overall season for Paul after niggling injuries disrupted his 2025 campaign - he needs just three more victories to eclipse his previous record of 42 wins in a year.
Paul has won 21 of his 32 matches on outdoor hardcourt this year, while he's also made four ATP finals, winning the title in Houston and finishing runner-up at Delray Beach, Hamburg and Queen's Club.
The American had a decent summer at home, making the Cincinnati Masters quarter-finals before a R16 finish at the US Open, going down to Carlos Alcaraz.
Paul was well off the pace to launch his Asian swing as he won just three games in a shocking first round loss in Tokyo to Alejandro Tabilo, but he appears to have got back on track after sending Vallejo packing with a dominant 6-2 6-2 victory in his Shanghai opener.
Vacherot vs Paul Live Stream
Watch and bet on Valentin Vacherot vs Tommy Paul live tennis from Shanghai.
You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > ATP Shanghai with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.
Geo-restrictions apply, you'll need a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours to gain access. 18+ terms and conditions apply.
Verdict
This should be a close contest, but I'm backing Paul to eliminate the defending champion.
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