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Alex de Minaur vs Alex Molcan ATP Shanghai Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - De Minaur under injury cloud

andrew-hendrie
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Last updated: Fri. 09 Oct. 2026 00:15

Alex de Minaur faces Alex Molcan in the ATP Shanghai Masters second round amid fitness concerns, having retired with a groin injury during the China Open final. De Minaur has struggled for form this year, while Molcan arrives in decent shape after recent strong showings. Given De Minaur’s injury and Molcan’s proven ability to compete at this level, the article recommends backing the Slovakian with a +4.5 game handicap and over 19.5 total games, with smaller bets on Molcan to take a set or win outright.

Andrew Hendrie 09 Oct. 2026
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  • Alex De Minaur vs Alex Molcan predictions for Friday's ATP Shanghai R2
  • De Minaur forced to retire in China Open final earlier this week
  • Molcan a tough competitor and beat de Minaur in only previous meeting
  • The match is scheduled to start around 7.00pm AEDT on Friday October 9
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De Minaur Molcan


Alex de Minaur vs Alex Molcan ATP Shanghai Tips, Prediction & Live Stream


Alex de Minaur retired with a groin injury a few days ago in the China Open final and question marks linger over his fitness ahead of this Shanghai Masters second round clash with Alex Molcan on Friday.

De Minaur has been below his best for most of the year and just when it looked like he might be building some positive momentum, disaster struck.

The Aussie felt something wasn't right towards the end of the first set of the China Open final against Novak Djokovic on Tuesday and promptly pulled the pin.

De Minaur said he was scheduled to get scans before competing in Shanghai, but even if he gets the all clear I'm not convinced he's ready to compete - it had to be something fairly serious for the Demon to retire in a final.

Molcan is absolutely no mug either. The Slovak has been ravaged by injury problems over the last few years, but at his best, he's a top 30 talent. He has made at least the quarter-finals at two of his last three ATP events and has two top 10 wins under his belt - along with an upset of De Minaur a few years ago.

Even if De Minaur was fully fit, I don't think this would be an easy match.

So given the circumstances, I'm going to take a punt on Molcan - main play is the Slovak to cover a +4.5 start with Over 19.5 total games, with smaller stakes on the underdog to win a set and the match.
  • De Minaur has failed to cover a -4.5 line & seen Over 19.5 games in six of his last seven best-of-three ATP matches
  • Molcan has a 7-2 record in opening rounds at tour-level this season
  • Molcan has won 1+ set in seven of his last nine matches

De Minaur vs Molcan Head To Head

Molcan leads 1-0, winning their only previous meeting on the clay of Lyon in 2022.

YearWinnerEventRoundSurfaceScore
2022Alex MolcanLyonSemifinalOutdoor Clay7-6(2), 6-2

Alex de Minaur Form Analysis

  • 2026 ATP Record: 40-19
  • ATP Shanghai Record: 5-4
  • Current Ranking: No. 9
  • Career-High Ranking: No. 5 (July 2026)

De Minaur has won 40+ matches for the fifth straight season, but overall, it hasn't been a great year for the Aussie.

The 27-year-old won the title in Rotterdam, finished runner-up in s-Hertogenbosch and reached the Australian Open quarter-finals, but failed to make it past the R16 of the other three slams.

After a lean period, de Minaur bounced back with a run to the China Open final last week - but his level still wasn't great.

De Minaur battled through the early rounds before benefitting from a retirement by Hubert Hurkacz in the semi-finals. The Aussie was then forced to retire himself in the final against Djokovic with a groin injury.

Shanghai hasn't been the happiest hunting ground for de Minaur - he was 2-3 at the tournament before last year's run to the quarter-finals, where he went down to Daniil Medvedev.

Alex Molcan Form Analysis

  • 2026 ATP Record: 15-10
  • ATP Shanghai Record: 1-0
  • Current Ranking: No. 84
  • Career-High Ranking: No. 38 (2022)

Molcan is competing at the Shanghai Masters for the first time in his career and he made a winning start, coming from a set down to topple young Italian prospect Federico Cina 4-6 6-1 6-2.

The 28-year-old has battled his fair share of injury problems over the last few years since cracking the top 40 in 2022 - indeed, he was restricted to just three tour-level matches in 2024 and 2025.

It's been a better season in 2026 - Molcan has played 25 tour-level matches and won 15 of them, including a run to the ATP 500 Munich Open semi-finals, along with another semi in Umag and quarter-final on Kitzbuhel.

Molcan also qualified for the China Open last week in Beijing, beating Tomas Machac before falling to an in-form Karen Khachanov.

De Minaur vs Molcan Live Stream

Watch and bet on Alex de Minaur vs Alex Molcan live tennis from Shanghai.

You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > ATP Shanghai with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.

Geo-restrictions apply, you'll need a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours to gain access. 18+ terms and conditions apply.

Verdict

Question marks over de Minaur's fitness & his form remains subpar, so a good chance for Molcan to post a third top 10 scalp here.

Best Bet1: Molcan +4.5 & O/19.5 Games Line & Total Games $1.70 at picklebet - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Molcan To Win A Set $1.90 at dabble - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Molcan Win H2H $3.42 at CrownBet - 1 Unit
Molcan +4.5 & O/19.5
Games Line & Total Games
$1.70 - 3 Units
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