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Alex de Minaur vs Francisco Cerundolo Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Cerundolo to take down struggling de Minaur
Alex de Minaur faces Francisco Cerundolo in a challenging first-round ATP Hamburg match. De Minaur, currently out of form with four losses from his last five matches, seeks to regain momentum before the French Open. Cerundolo, with a strong clay record and recent head-to-head win, is favored to win, especially on this surface. The analysis and trends suggest Cerundolo should claim victory, with the best value in backing him to win in straight sets. Live streaming is available on Unibet for eligible viewers.
- Alex de Minaur vs Francisco Cerundolo predictions for Monday's ATP Hamburg R1
- De Minaur has lost four of last five matches and struggling for form
- Cerundolo excels in clay openers and won their last meeting in straight sets
- The match is scheduled to start at 8.00pm AEST on Monday May 18
Expired
Francisco Cerundolo (Photo by Getty Images)
Alex de Minaur vs Francisco Cerundolo Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Alex de Minaur has a tough opening assignment in Hamburg as he takes on Francisco Cerundolo in the first round on Monday.
It's been a challenging last couple of months for de Minaur and he's taken a late entry into Hamburg in a desperate bid to win some matches and restore confidence ahead of next week's French Open.
De Minaur has won just four matches across his last seven tournaments, losing four of his last five outings coming into this clash - including a most-recent defeat to Matteo Arnaldi in Rome.
Meanwhile, it hasn't been a great clay swing for Cerundolo, but it's been solid enough - six match wins and his last three defeats have been against Lorenzo Musetti, a rising Alexander Blockx and Alexander Zverev.
Honestly, I wouldn't put this version of de Minaur in that group, so this looms as a good opportunity for the unseeded Cerundolo to claim the win here. The Argentine won the most-recent clash between the pair in straight sets at Indian Wells last year and clay gives him an even bigger advantage in Hamburg. Cerundolo to prevail is the best bet, with a bit more value on the World No. 27 getting it done in straights.
De Minaur vs Cerundolo Stats & Trends
- De Minaur has lost four of his last five matches
- De Minaur has a 9-19 record vs top 30 players on clay
- Nine of de Minaur's last 11 defeats vs top 30 players on clay have come in straight sets
- Cerundolo has a 9-10 record vs top 10 players on clay
- Cerundolo has won 20 of his last 22 opening round matches on clay
- Cerundolo's last 13 opening round match wins on clay have come in straight sets
De Minaur vs Cerundolo Head To Head
Level at 1-1. De Minaur prevailed in four sets at the 2025 Australian Open before Cerundolo returned serve with a straight sets victory a couple of months later at Indian Wells.
| Year | Winner | Event | Round | Surface | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Francisco Cerúndolo | Indian Wells Open | Round of 16 | Outdoor Hard | 7–5, 6–3 |
| 2025 | Alex de Minaur | Australian Open | Round of 32 | Outdoor Hard | 5–7, 7–6(3), 6–3, 6–3 |
Alex de Minaur Form Analysis
- 2026 Record: 15-8
- ATP Hamburg Record: 0-0
- Current Ranking: No. 8
- Career-High Ranking: No. 6
It's been a poor run of form for de Minaur since he picked up the Rotterdam title in early February.
Indeed, the Aussie has managed just four wins across his last seven tournaments, suffering various uncharacteristic defeats against lower-ranked players.
For so long de Minaur was reliable whenever he came up against players ranked below him, but that's not the case at the moment.
After going down to Hamad Medjedovic in Barcelona and Rafael Jodar in Madrid, de Minaur produced another sub-par performance in Rome, going down in three sets to wildcard Matteo Arnaldi in his opening match.
Desperate for some match wins ahead of Roland Garros next week, de Minaur is playing Hamburg for the first time.
Francisco Cerundolo Form Analysis
- 2026 Record: 19-9
- ATP Hamburg Record: 6-4
- Current Ranking: No. 27
- Career-High Ranking: No. 18 (2025)
It's been a typically solid season for Cerundolo and such is the strong nature of this ATP 500 in Hamburg, he finds himself unseeded.
Cerundolo started the year strongly - as he often does - with a fourth round at the Australian Open before winning the title in Buenos Aires and making the semi-finals in Santiago.
The Argentine also reached the quarter-finals of the Miami Masters, but he hasn't had the most fruitful of European clay swings.
Cerundolo managed just one win each at Monte Carlo and Rome, while he made the quarter-finals of Munich and R16 in Madrid.
The 27-year-old has a decent 6-4 record in Hamburg, making the semi-finals in 2022 and quarters in 2024.
De Minaur vs Cerundolo Live Stream
Watch and bet on Alex de Minaur vs Francisco Cerundolo live tennis from Hamburg.
You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > ATP Hamburg with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.
Geo-restrictions apply, you'll need a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours to gain access. 18+ terms and conditions apply.
Verdict
De Minaur is down on form - great chance for Cerundolo to notch up another top 10 scalp on clay.
Cerundolo Win
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