2026 Norm Smith Medal Tips & Predictions – Best Bets and Value selections
The 2026 Norm Smith Medal Preview analyses leading contenders for the AFL Grand Final’s top individual award. With midfielders like Andrew Brayshaw (Fremantle) and Will Ashcroft (Brisbane) as favourites, the article highlights strategic value bets such as Jye Amiss and Harris Andrews. Fremantle’s comeback form and powerful forward line position Brayshaw and Amiss as key threats, while defensive stalwarts like Andrews and attacking veterans like Dayne Zorko offer longer-odds intrigue. The main recommendation is to watch Brayshaw for consistency and value, but strong cases exist beyond the obvious midfielders.
- Andrew Brayshaw is the Fremantle midfield option after another influential finals performance.
- Jye Amiss offers a longer-priced alternative, with his record against Brisbane and ability to kick a bag.
- Dayne Zorko is a Brisbane contender through his ability to generate attacking play from defence.
- Harris Andrews could feature prominently if he controls the aerial contest against Fremantle's key forwards.
Will Ashcroft is already a two-time Norm Smith Medal winer (Getty Images)
2026 Norm Smith Medal Preview
- 2026 Norm Smith Medal Preview
- 2026 Norm Smith Medal Best Bet – Andrew Brayshaw (Fremantle)
- 2026 Norm Smith Medal Next Best – Jye Amiss (Fremantle)
- 2026 Norm Smith Medal Value Bet – Dayne Zorko (Brisbane)
- 2026 Norm Smith Medal Value Bet – Harris Andrews (Brisbane)
The Norm Smith Medal is the ultimate prize for individual brilliance on the AFL's biggest day, awarded to the player judged best on ground in the Grand Final.
Named after Melbourne coaching great Norm Smith, the medal was introduced in 1979 and has featured some of the game's most iconic names on its honour roll, including three-time winner Dustin Martin and dual winners Gary Ayres, Andrew McLeod and Luke Hodge.
Midfielders have traditionally featured prominently in the voting, although Bobby Hill demonstrated in 2023 that a forward can steal the show. The Collingwood livewire booted four goals against Brisbane to claim the medal with a perfect 15 votes, while Lions defender Keidean Coleman received five.
Will Ashcroft claimed the honour in 2024 and 2025 and heads the market at $5 as Brisbane prepare for their fourth consecutive Grand Final. The Lions are chasing a third straight premiership, while Fremantle are attempting to win their first flag in just their second appearance on the final Saturday in September.
The Dockers will enter the decider with plenty of confidence after finishing on top of the ladder and producing a remarkable comeback against Sydney in the Preliminary Final. Trailing by 28 points midway through the third quarter, Fremantle stormed home with five unanswered goals in the final term to secure a 12-point victory.
The Dockers dominated territory throughout the night, winning the inside-50 count 67-49 and clearances 44-30. Their final-quarter numbers were even more impressive, with advantages of 23-6 in inside 50s, 12-5 in clearances and 49-27 in contested possessions.
Fremantle.docx
Brisbane also produced a memorable Preliminary Final comeback, surviving a late Hawthorn charge to win by nine points at the MCG. Will Ashcroft, Kai Lohmann and Lachie Neale were among the standouts, while Hugh McCluggage kicked the match-winning goal in the dying stages.
The Lions have several genuine Norm Smith contenders, with Ashcroft leading the market ahead of Zac Bailey ($11), McCluggage ($13), Dayne Zorko ($15) and Josh Dunkley ($18).
Luke Jackson is Fremantle's shortest-priced option at $10 after an outstanding finals campaign, followed by Caleb Serong ($13), Andrew Brayshaw ($15) and Shai Bolton ($15).
The two sides have met once this season, with Fremantle's key forwards causing plenty of headaches for the Lions. Josh Treacy and Jye Amiss each received nine coaches' votes, while Matthew Johnson collected five and Patrick Voss three.
That attacking combination shapes as a major factor in Saturday's contest, particularly with Brisbane defender Harris Andrews likely to play a pivotal role in restricting the Dockers' marking targets.
With so much attention on the midfield stars, there are also several interesting options further down the market.
2026 Norm Smith Medal Best Bet – Andrew Brayshaw (Fremantle)
Andrew Brayshaw shapes as a major contender for the Norm Smith Medal at $15, with the Fremantle midfielder building an impressive finals campaign and playing a key role in the Dockers' remarkable Preliminary Final comeback against Sydney.
The 26-year-old finished with a team-high 29 disposals against the Swans and was particularly influential when the game was on the line. Fremantle trailed by 21 points at the final change before completely dominating the last quarter, with Brayshaw and Caleb Serong taking control around the contest as the Dockers won the clearances 12-5 and generated 23 inside 50s to Sydney's six.
Coach Justin Longmuir highlighted the influence of his midfielders after the match, with Brayshaw among those who lifted when Fremantle needed to turn the game around.
Brayshaw has been one of Fremantle's most consistent performers for several seasons, combining his ability to win the football with elite defensive pressure and an enormous work rate. He doesn't rely on hitting the scoreboard to influence games, and his capacity to accumulate possessions while restricting opposition midfielders makes him particularly important against Brisbane.
The Lions boast a formidable midfield featuring Will Ashcroft, Hugh McCluggage, Lachie Neale and Josh Dunkley, but Brayshaw has the ability to match them around the contest and provide Fremantle with the first use of the football.
Luke Jackson has attracted plenty of attention following his outstanding finals performances, while Serong is also prominent in the market. However, Brayshaw's consistency and ability to influence the game across all four quarters provide a compelling case for the $15 quote.
If Fremantle can reproduce the midfield dominance that carried them into the Grand Final, Brayshaw will have plenty of opportunities to make his presence felt.
2026 Norm Smith Medal Next Best – Jye Amiss (Fremantle)
Jye Amiss is an interesting long-priced option for the Norm Smith Medal at $67, with the Fremantle forward boasting an impressive recent record against Brisbane and the ability to produce a match-winning bag of goals.
The 23-year-old was one of the key figures when the Dockers defeated Brisbane in Round 12 earlier this season, receiving nine coaches' votes alongside fellow forward Josh Treacy. Matthew Johnson collected five votes and Patrick Voss three, highlighting just how influential Fremantle's attacking combination was in that encounter.
Amiss and Treacy have each kicked eight goals across their past three meetings with the Lions, while Voss booted four in the most recent clash. Brisbane's defence will have its hands full trying to contain all three, particularly if Fremantle can generate the same volume of forward entries that overwhelmed Sydney in the Preliminary Final.
The Dockers had 67 inside 50s against the Swans but struggled to capitalise for much of the contest. Their three key forwards managed just two goals between them, with Amiss kicking one, leaving plenty of room for improvement heading into the decider.
Harris Andrews looms as the biggest obstacle, although the Lions defender cannot cover all three marking targets. If Andrews is occupied by Treacy, Amiss could get opportunities against Brisbane's other defenders, particularly when Fremantle move the ball quickly out of the middle.
The Norm Smith Medal is generally associated with midfield dominance, but Bobby Hill demonstrated in 2023 that a forward can claim the honour with a decisive scoreboard contribution. The Collingwood small forward kicked four goals against Brisbane and received the maximum 15 votes.
Amiss has the capacity to produce a similar scoreboard impact, particularly if Fremantle's midfield can get on top and provide him with regular opportunities inside 50.
At $67, the Dockers forward is one of the longer-priced players in the market, but a four or five-goal performance in a Fremantle premiership would put him firmly in the Norm Smith conversation.
2026 Norm Smith Medal Value Bet – Dayne Zorko (Brisbane)
Dayne Zorko shapes as an interesting contender for the Norm Smith Medal at $15, with the Brisbane veteran's ability to generate attacking play from defence likely to be crucial against Fremantle.
The 37-year-old remains one of the Lions' most influential ball users, providing drive from the back half and helping Brisbane transition the football into attack. His ability to find space, accumulate possessions and deliver the ball effectively gives him the opportunity to produce a high-impact performance on Grand Final day.
Fremantle's Preliminary Final win over Sydney demonstrated just how much pressure the Dockers can generate through repeat forward entries. They finished with 67 inside 50s and completely dominated the final quarter, creating 23 entries to six as they overturned a 21-point deficit.
If Fremantle can produce similar numbers on Saturday, Brisbane's defenders will have plenty of work to do, and Zorko's ability to find a way through the Dockers' defensive structure could become a major factor.
The Lions veteran was influential in Brisbane's Semi-Final win over Adelaide, with his experience and ability to generate attacking movement from defence helping the Lions establish a commanding early advantage.
Brisbane will need to be particularly effective with their ball movement against Fremantle, who have several midfielders capable of applying pressure and forcing turnovers. Zorko's precise kicking and ability to launch attacks from the back half could prove vital in breaking through that pressure.
With so much attention on Will Ashcroft, Hugh McCluggage and Lachie Neale, Zorko offers a different avenue to the medal. A performance featuring 30-plus disposals, significant metres gained and several important attacking chains would give him a strong case if the Lions secure another premiership.
2026 Norm Smith Medal Value Bet – Harris Andrews (Brisbane)
Harris Andrews shapes as one of the more interesting options further down the Norm Smith Medal market at $34, with the Brisbane defender set to play a crucial role against Fremantle's powerful forward line.
The Dockers boast three dangerous key forwards in Josh Treacy, Jye Amiss and Patrick Voss, who have combined for more than 160 goals this season. All three have the ability to influence the scoreboard, with Treacy and Amiss particularly effective against Brisbane in recent meetings.
Andrews will be central to the Lions' plans to restrict that combination. The All-Australian defender is one of the competition's leading intercept players, with his ability to read the flight of the ball, take contested marks and organise Brisbane's defensive structure making him an important figure.
He demonstrated that influence in the Preliminary Final against Hawthorn, particularly after half-time as Brisbane tightened up defensively and began to control the aerial contest. Andrews was among the Lions' best players in the nine-point victory and played an important role in helping Brisbane withstand Hawthorn's late charge.
The match-up against Fremantle is particularly intriguing. Treacy and Amiss have each kicked eight goals across their past three meetings with Brisbane, while Voss booted four in Round 12 this season.
Andrews may be required to spend considerable time on one of those forwards, but his greatest influence could come when he is able to leave his direct opponent and intercept Fremantle's attacking entries.
The Dockers generated 67 inside 50s against Sydney in the Preliminary Final, and a similar performance would provide Andrews with plenty of opportunities to influence the contest.
Defenders are often overlooked in Norm Smith betting markets, but Andrews has the capacity to produce the type of commanding performance that attracts the attention of the voting panel.
If Brisbane can restrict Fremantle's dangerous forward line and Andrews dominates the aerial contest with a series of important intercept marks, the $34 quote offers an interesting alternative to the Lions' shorter-priced midfield stars.
Verdict
Andrew Brayshaw and Dayne Zorko are strong contenders for either side for the 2026 Norm Smith Medal, while Harris Andrews and Jye Amiss represent value
Andrew Brayshaw
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Jye Amiss
Norm Smith Medal
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