Majority vs Minority Government Betting Odds - Will Australia Have a Hung Parliament?

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Last updated: 28 Apr 2025

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Bets.com.au Staff 28 Apr 2025

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Latest odds for Majority vs Minority Government
Hung parliament a likely scenario for 2025 Australian Federal Election
Labor Minority tipped for expected type of Government formed

Prime Minister of Australia, Anthony Albanese (Photo by Getty Images)

When betting on elections, it’s not just about who wins – it’s also about how they win. In Australia, that means considering whether the next government will have a clear majority or if we’re headed for a hung parliament with a minority government.

The 2025 federal election has a very real prospect of no party winning an outright majority of seats. In fact, current betting odds suggest a hung parliament (minority government) is a highly likely scenario as of April 28, 2025. Let’s break down the odds and factors for a majority vs minority outcome.

The Odds: Minority Government Favoured

Australian bookmaker sites have dedicated markets on the type of government that will result, which can be seen in the table below (odds correct from April 28, 2025).

Bookmaker	Labor Minority	Labor Majority	Coalition Minority	Coalition Majority	Any Other
Ladbrokes	$2.00	$2.75	$4.75	$15	$151
Neds	$2.00	$2.75	$4.75	$15	$151
PlayUp	$2.20	$2.00	$6.00	$21	$201
Betr	$2.40	$2.00	$5.50	$21	$201
Unibet	$2.35	$2.10	$5.50	$23	$101

Betting odds have shifted slightly over the last fortnight. The single most likely outcome per the market was a Labor-led minority government, but that has changed to Labor-led majority government, with Ladbrokes offering $2.10 odds. Labor Minority is available at $2.40 with betr.

Why is a Hung Parliament So Likely?

There are a few reasons bettors (and analysts) are leaning this way. Firstly, Labor’s majority is slender – in the outgoing parliament, Labor holds 78 of 151 seats. It only takes a net loss of 3 seats for Labor to lose majority status. Given normal swings and some retirements, Labor could easily drop a few seats even if it “wins” the election on two-party vote.

Australian Federal Election 2025Hung Parliament - Yes$1.70 - bet here

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On the other side, the Coalition starts with 54 seats and would need to net 22 more to get to 76 for a majority – a very steep climb. It’s easier to imagine neither side reaching 76 than either side doing so.

Secondly, the presence of a large crossbench of independents and minor party MPs makes a hung parliament more probable. After 2022, a record 16 seats were held by independents or third parties (like the Greens and Katter’s Australian Party). Those crossbenchers are tipped to hold or even expand their numbers in 2025. Almost one-third of Australian voters chose a candidate outside the major parties in 2022 - an all-time high.

That trend looks set to continue or grow. As per recent polls, the combined primary vote for Labor + Coalition is at a historic low, around 68-70%.

When nearly 30% of voters go for minors/independents, a sizeable crossbench is inevitable, which in turn makes a majority harder for either party to achieve. The electoral battlegrounds also support the hung parliament thesis.

In short, both parties have a high chance of trading blows and ending up in the zone of ~70 seats each, just shy of a majority. It’s a scenario where neither side lands a knockout.

Crossbench Kingmakers and Scenarios

If we do get a hung parliament, what happens? Typically, the incumbent PM (Albanese, in this case) would have the first opportunity to form government by securing confidence from crossbench MPs. The composition of the crossbench then becomes crucial. Currently, Labor could likely rely on the Greens (who hold 4 seats and would almost certainly support a Labor minority) and possibly some of the teal independents, who are generally progressive on climate and social policy. In 2022, many of those teal independents unseated Liberals and campaigned on climate action; it’s conceivable they would back Labor in a hung parliament, or at least not back the Coalition.

On the other hand, there are crossbenchers like Bob Katter (KAP) or possibly a rural independent who might lean towards the Coalition. The betting odds specifically favour a Labor minority over a Labor majority, indicating bettors think if Labor “wins,” it’s more likely to be short of 76 and require deals.

Albanese himself has stated his goal is to govern in majority (as any leader would), but the markets are effectively saying, “We hear you, but we think you might need crossbench help.” Indeed, Sportsbet’s odds imply Labor is far more likely to need crossbench support than to govern alone.

Betting Tip: Bet on a Hung Parliament (Labor Minority)

Based on all available information, the hung parliament scenario looks the most likely. A Labor-led minority government is currently paying best odds of $2.00 – a relatively short price, yes, but it reflects the considerable likelihood of that outcome. If you’re looking for a single clear bet in this market, Labor Minority at $2.00 is our pick.

Australian Federal Election 2025Labor Minority - Type of Government Formed$2.35 - BET here

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It aligns with both the odds-on favourite and a plausible narrative: Labor wins roughly 72-75 seats, Coalition 70-ish, and Albanese remains PM with crossbench support. Importantly for bettors, this outcome could occur even in cases where Labor and Coalition tie on seats or Labor loses the two-party vote, as long as crossbenchers tip the scales. That gives this bet a few “outs” to win.