Australian Election 2025 Betting and Odds

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Australian Election Total Seats Betting Tips - Predictions for Labor, Coalition, Greens & Independents

Bets.com.au Staff

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Last updated: Fri 02 May 2025 05:25

Bets.com.au Staff 02 May 2025

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Total seats betting markets for Australian Election now available with PlayUp
Odds available for Labor, Coalition, Greens & Independents
We give our betting tips for how many seats each party will secure
The 2025 Australian Federal Election takes place on Saturday May 3

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Opposition Leader Peter Dutton (Photo by Getty Images)

Online bookmaker PlayUp are offering various markets for the upcoming 2025 Australian Federal Election - and in this article we'll be focusing on Total Seats.

Punters have the opportunity to place bets on the number of seats each party (Labor, Coalition, Greens & Independents) will secure in the election.

The available markets are predominantly featured in a range of five seats for Labor and the Coalition, so you will need to predict the correct margin in order to be successful. For Greens & Independents, you will need to pick the exact number (Greens) or a range of two (Independents) as those parties will win a smaller amount of seats.

Read on below as our political experts give their best betting tips.

(all odds from PlayUp & correct from 2/5/25).

Labor

Betting Tip: 71-75 Seats @ $2.40

Betting markets and leading seat modelling for the 2025 Australian Federal Election indicate that the Australian Labor Party (ALP) is favoured to win the most seats, but is not projected to secure a clear majority. The consensus from major betting markets and expert models is:

Most likely outcome: Labor wins 75 seats-one short of the 76 needed for a majority in the 150-seat House of Representatives.

Central seat range: Labor is projected to secure between 69 and 80 seats.

Hung parliament likely: This would result in a hung parliament, but Labor would be in the strongest position to form government, likely with support from independents or minor parties.

Coalition

Betting Tip: 66-70 Total Seats @ $5.00

Betting markets for the 2025 Australian Federal Election indicate that the Coalition (Liberal-National Party, L-NP) is expected to improve on its 2022 result but remains unlikely to win government outright.

The most probable outcome, according to betting odds and market analysis, is that the Coalition will secure between 66 and 70 seats in the House of Representatives.

Key Market Insights

Coalition 2022 Baseline: The Coalition won 55 seats in the 2022 federal election.

2025 Market Expectation: Betting markets see the Coalition increasing its total to 66–70 seats as the most likely outcome.

Probability of Forming Government: Unless the Coalition achieves at least 72 seats, forming a minority government is considered unlikely, as only a small number of independents are seen as willing to support them.

Labor Position: The ALP is still favoured to win, with betting markets pricing an equal probability of a hung parliament (71–75 seats) or a narrow outright win (76–80 seats).

Greens

Betting Tip: Two Total Seats @ $4.00

The Greens are expected to win between 1 and 3 seats in the House of Representatives in the 2025 federal election, with the most likely outcome being 2 seats according to the latest YouGov MRP model.

This is a reduction from the four seats the Greens won in 2022, reflecting highly competitive contests in their Brisbane strongholds.

The model suggests Labor is favoured to regain the seats of Brisbane and Griffith from the Greens, with Ryan and Melbourne being the most likely Greens holds.

Current Greens-held seats:

Melbourne: Considered very safe for the Greens and almost certain to be retained.

Ryan and Griffith: Both are highly competitive, but Griffith is now classed as a safe seat for the Greens, while Ryan is marginal but with favourable demographics for the party.

Brisbane: A genuine three-way contest, with the Greens only narrowly ahead in 2022 and at risk of losing to Labor or the Coalition.

Overall, the Greens are expected to win Melbourne and Griffith seats, but face stiff competition to hold onto Ryan and Brisbane, making two seats the likely outcome.

Independents

Betting Tip: 11-12 Total Seats @ $2.90

Recent polling and expert projections indicate that independent candidates are poised to retain most of their current seats and potentially gain new ones in the 2025 election. Below is a summary of seats where independents are most likely to win, based on the latest polling, seat-by-seat projections and campaign developments.

Zali Steggall (Warringah)
Helen Haines (Indi)
Andrew Wilkie (Clark)
Zoe Daniel (Goldstein)
Monique Ryan (Kooyong)
Allegra Spender (Wentworth)
Sophie Scamps (Mackellar)
Kylea Tink's seat (North Sydney) has been dissolved due to redistribution, so she is not contesting.
Dai Le (Fowler)
Bob Katter (Kennedy)
Rebekha Sharkie (Mayo, Centre Alliance, often grouped with independents)
Andrew Gee (Calare, now sitting as an independent)

With the North Sydney seat abolished, but Independents likely to gain at least one set in either Cowper or Wannan (along with Kate Chaney defending Curtin in WA), the most probable seat outcome is 11-12.

Verdict

2025 Australian Federal Election

Labor are projected to win 71-75 seats, the Coalition is set for 66-70, the Greens appear likely for two and the Independents are good value for 11-12.