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Australian Election 2025 Betting and Odds

Australian Federal Election Key Seats - Betting Trends & Latest Odds

Bets.com.au Staff

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Last updated: 28 Apr 2025

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Bets.com.au Staff 28 Apr 2025

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The next Australian Federal Election takes place on Saturday May 3
Prime Minster Anthony Albanese is seeking re-election with Labor for a second term
Several key seats have the ability to swing the election
Ladbrokes Australia offer odds for who will win key seats across states

Who will win the key seats in the upcoming election? (Photo by Getty Images)

The current standings in key seats for the 2025 Australian federal election reflect tight contests across several electorates, with both major parties and independents vying for control.

Below is a summary of which parties are leading or facing strong challenges in these critical seats.

Online bookmaker Ladbrokes Australia lead the way when it comes to the latest and best odds for key seats for the upcoming federal election.

Australian Federal Election Key Seats OddsBet on Politics with LadbrokesBET HERE

New customers only. 18+ T&Cs and wagering requirements apply.

Note: Odds correct from 14/4/25.

Key Seats and Leading Parties

Curtin (WA):

Held by independent Kate Chaney with a slim margin of 1.3%.

The Liberal Party is heavily targeting this seat to reclaim it, but Chaney remains competitive due to her grassroots support and offers value as a $2.30 outsider with Ladbrokes Australia.

Curtin Seat Winner	Odds
Coalition	$1.52
Independent (Kate Chaney)	$2.30
Labor	$26
Any Other Candidate	$26

Kooyong (VIC):

Independent Monique Ryan holds the seat with a margin of 2.2%.

Redistribution has strengthened Liberal prospects, making Amelia Hamer a strong challenger.

Kooyong Seat Winner	Odds
Coalition	$1.73
Independent	$1.96
Labor	$26
Any Other Candidate	$26

Bullwinkel (WA):

A new seat with no incumbent, leading to a three-way contest between Labor, Liberals, and Nationals.

YouGov projects a Coalition gain, but the outcome depends on how well the Liberals and Nationals manage internal tensions.

Bullwinkel Seat Winner	Odds
Coalition	$1.27
Labor	$3.35
Any Other Candidate	$17

Sturt (SA):

Liberal James Stevens holds this marginal seat with a 0.45% margin.

Facing a challenge from Labor's Claire Clutterham and Teal candidate Verity Cooper, making it a potential three-way fight.

Sturt Seat Winner	Odds
Coalition	$1.57
Labor	$2.75
Any Other Candidate	$8.00

Bennelong (NSW):

Labor's Jerome Laxale holds this seat with a margin of 0.04%, but boundary changes have made it notionally Liberal.

Scott Yung is contesting for the Liberals in what is expected to be a tight race.

Bennelong Seat Winner	Odds
Coalition	$1.45
Labor	$2.50
Any Other Candidate	$26

Wentworth (NSW):

Independent Allegra Spender holds this seat with a redistributed margin of 0.58%.

Analysts believe Spender remains relatively safe despite the tighter margin.

Wentworth Seat Winner	Odds
Independent (Allegra Spender)	$1.20
Coalition	$3.90
Labor	$26
Any Other Candidate	$26

Deakin (VIC):

Liberal Michael Sukkar holds this seat by just 0.02%, making it the most marginal in the country.

Labor’s Matt Gregg is challenging strongly.

Deakin Seat Winner	Odds
Coalition	$1.10
Labor	$5.50
Any Other Candidate	$26

Griffith (QLD):

Held by Labor’s Max Chandler-Mather, but facing challenges from Greens and Liberals in a three-way contest.

Griffith Seat Winner	Odds
Greens	$1.40
Labor	$2.90
Coalition	$13
Any Other Candidate	$26

Ryan (QLD):

Currently held by Greens MP Elizabeth Watson-Brown.

The Liberal National Party (LNP) is aiming to reclaim this seat, but it remains competitive.

Ryan Seat Winner	Odds
Coalition	$1.69
Greens	$2.18
Labor	$13
Any Other Candidate	$26

Mayo (SA):

Held by Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie.

While Sharkie has strong local support, demographic shifts could influence voting patterns.

Mayo Seat Winner	Odds
Centre Alliance	$1.20
Coalition	$4.40
Labor	$15
Any Other Candidate	$26

Overall Trends

Marginal seats like Deakin, Bennelong, and Sturt are seeing intense battles between Labor and the Coalition due to extremely narrow margins.

Independents in seats like Curtin and Wentworth are holding their ground against major party challengers.

Redistribution has reshaped several electorates, creating opportunities for both Labor and the Coalition to make gains.

These dynamics highlight how closely contested key seats are in determining the outcome of the election, with no clear dominance by any single party across all battlegrounds.