Coalition out to $10 to win Federal Election - Reasons why the Opposition offer great value

Bets.com.au Staff

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Last updated: Fri 02 May 2025 05:26

Bets.com.au Staff 02 May 2025

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Coalition drift out to $10 to win Federal Election with Elitebet
Recent history suggests the Coalition are not out of the running
We provide key reasons why the Opposition present great value in the betting markets

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Opposition Leader Peter Dutton (Photo by Getty Images)

Australia is just days away from going to the polls for the 2025 Federal Election and the Coalition continue to drift considerably in the latest betting markets - but the longer the odds, the better value and there's a few reasons why Peter Dutton and the Opposition might be worth a small stake come Saturday.

While Labor are massive $1.05 favourites, they are far from guaranteed to win the election and remain in office. Remember the 2019 election, when Bill Shorten lost the 'unloseable' election to Scott Morrison? This has happened before to the Labor Party.

Psephologist Dr Kevin Bonham mentioned earlier this year that betting odds are often 'overrated' and 'unreliable'.

“There are some people out there who have this belief that the market never lies, but this belief persists no matter how many times it is proven to be false,” Bonham said in regards to the Morrison win over Shorten in 2019.

Large parts of the country remain unsettled with the state of affairs and $10 odds for the Coalition to sneak a victory with Elitebet offers tremendous value.

Australian Federal Election 2025 WinnerCoalition$10 - bet here

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While current polling still favours Labor, several factors suggest the Coalition has a plausible path to victory in the 2025 Australian Federal Election.

Here are the key betting reasons, grounded in recent data, political dynamics, and campaign strategies:

1. Narrowing Polls and Voter Volatility

Recent Roy Morgan polling shows the Coalition closing the gap, with a two-party preferred swing of 2.5% in their favor compared to the previous week. While Labor is still ahead at 53% to 47%, the Coalition's primary vote has edged ahead of Labor (34.5% vs. 34%), and early voting trends suggest the final result could be closer than headline polls indicate.

A significant portion of the electorate (6%) remains undecided, and 11% are supporting minor parties or independents, creating volatility that could benefit the Coalition if preferences flow their way.

2. Marginal Seats and Electoral Math

The 2025 contest is highly competitive, with many marginal seats in play. Labor holds at least 17 seats with margins under 6%, while the Coalition has 21 such seats. Even small swings could flip enough seats for a Coalition win or force a hung parliament, increasing the Coalition’s bargaining power.

The possibility of a minority government is real, and the Coalition could form government with support from crossbenchers if Labor loses its slim majority.

3. Public Dissatisfaction and Government Confidence

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is low (81.5), with 52.5% of Australians believing the country is "going in the wrong direction." This level of dissatisfaction often leads to swings against incumbents and could drive undecided or protest votes toward the Coalition.

4. Coalition Policy Focus on Cost of Living and Housing

The Coalition has made the cost of living crisis a central campaign issue, promising to "end the cost of living crisis" through policies aimed at reducing inflation, lowering taxes, and cutting government waste.

Their housing plan includes boosting supply, reducing migration to manageable levels, banning foreign buyers temporarily, and supporting first home buyers-issues that resonate with voters struggling with affordability.

The Coalition’s energy policy, including a balanced mix of renewables, gas, and nuclear, is pitched as a cheaper and more reliable alternative to Labor’s plan, aiming to attract voters concerned about energy prices and reliability.

5. Targeted Appeals to Key Demographics

The Coalition is emphasizing support for small business, regional Australia, and practical action for Indigenous Australians, aiming to shore up votes in areas where Labor’s support may be soft.

On childcare, the Coalition is promising to back local solutions, particularly in rural and regional areas, which could appeal to voters who feel overlooked by national policies.

6. Migration and Community Cohesion

Immigration is emerging as a battleground issue, with the Coalition promising to rebalance the migration program and link it to housing supply-an approach that may appeal to voters concerned about housing affordability and social cohesion.

7. Leadership and Campaign Dynamics

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton is positioning himself as a decisive alternative, emphasising "right priorities" and a return to responsible economic management. If Labor stumbles late in the campaign or if there is a late swing, the Coalition could capitalise.