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Lorenzo Musetti vs Rafael Jodar ATP Washington Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Jodar to claim second top 20 scalp

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Fri 31 Jul 2026 02:14

Andrew Hendrie 31 Jul 2026

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Lorenzo Musetti vs Rafael Jodar predictions for Friday's ATP Washington QF
Jodar remains in strong form with 18 wins from last 23 matches
Musetti below his best after injury, has seen Under 2.5 sets in 12 of last 13 matches
The match is scheduled to start around 8.00am AEST on Saturday August 1

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Lorenzo Musetti vs Rafael Jodar ATP Washington Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Spanish teenage sensation Rafael Jodar is backed to reach a first ATP hardcourt semi-final in Washington, taking care of Lorenzo Musetti in straight sets on Friday night.

Lorenzo Musetti vs Rafael Jodar ATP Washington Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Musetti vs Jodar Stats & Trends
Musetti vs Jodar Head To Head
Lorenzo Musetti Form Analysis
Rafael Jodar Form Analysis
Musetti vs Jodar Live Stream

With all the accomplishments Jodar has already achieved during his breakout year on tour, it's easy to forget that this will actually be his first ever ATP quarter-final on hardcourt.

The 19-year-old truly announced himself during the clay swing with various standout results and will now be looking to translate that form over to hardcourts during the North American summer.

This is a good opportunity for Jodar to claim what would be just a second victory over a top 20 player.

Musetti has been struck down by injury throughout the course of 2026, limiting him to just 15 wins for the season. The Italian has lost his last four matches against top 25 opponents and needed three sets to edge out Aleksandar Vukic in the second round - a player who is 3-24 vs top 20 players, which isn't the most encouraging sign for Musetti heading into this one.

Jodar meanwhile has eased past Arthur Fils and Kei Nishikori without dropping a set - he's supremely confident and nothing phases him.

Musetti has been trending Under 2.5 sets (win or lose) for a while now, so that's the main play for this one, with Jodar advancing into the final four.

Musetti vs Jodar Stats & Trends

Musetti has seen Under 2.5 sets in 12 of his last 13 matches
Jodar has seen Under 2.5 sets in six of his last eight best-of-three matches
Jodar has won 18 of his last 23 matches
Five of Jodar's last six wins in best-of-three matches have come in straight sets

Musetti vs Jodar Head To Head

This will be the first career meeting between the pair.

Lorenzo Musetti Form Analysis

2026 ATP Record: 15-7
ATP Washington Record: 2-1
Current Ranking: No. 15
Career-High Ranking: No. 5 (January 2026)

It's been a stop-start season for Musetti, with injuries disrupting his momentum and restricting the Italian to just 22 tour-level matches.

The 24-year-old climbed to a career-high ranking of World No. 5 in January after reaching the Hong Kong final and the Australian Open quarter-finals, where he was forced to retire with injury while holding a comfortable lead over Novak Djokovic.

Musetti began to regain his rhythm during the clay swing, but a thigh injury sustained in Rome ruled him out of both Roland Garros and Wimbledon, denying him the chance to build on that progress.

As a result, he arrived in Washington down at No. 15 in the world. Musetti benefitted from fellow Italian Matteo Arnaldi's retirement in the first round before digging deep to outlast Aleksandar Vukic 6-3 5-7 6-3 to reach the quarter-finals.

Rafael Jodar Form Analysis

2026 ATP Record: 28-11
ATP Washington Record: 2-0
Current Ranking: No. 24
Career-High Ranking: No. 23 (June 2026)

Jodar's rise over the last year has been one of the biggest breakthrough stories on the ATP Tour, soaring from outside the world's top 500 to inside the top 25.

The 19-year-old first caught the tennis world's attention with a standout performance at the 2025 Next Gen ATP Finals before taking another huge leap this season. He secured his maiden ATP title in Marrakech, reached back-to-back Masters 1000 quarter-finals in Madrid and Rome and then enjoyed his best Grand Slam run by making the last eight at Roland Garros.

Following a demanding clay-court campaign, Jodar understandably looked a little fatigued at Wimbledon, but still impressed by reaching the third round on his grass-court debut before bowing out to Shintaro Mochizuki.

Now returning to familiar surroundings in Washington, where he previously played college tennis at the nearby University of Virginia, Jodar has made an immediate impact.

The Spaniard produced an excellent display to defeat Arthur Fils 7-6, 6-3 in the opening round before cruising past retiring veteran Kei Nishikori for the loss of just five games, 6-3, 6-2.

Musetti vs Jodar Live Stream

Watch and bet on Lorenzo Musetti vs Rafael Jodar live tennis from Washington.

You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > ATP Washington with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.

Geo-restrictions apply, you'll need a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours to gain access. 18+ terms and conditions apply.

Verdict

Lorenzo Musetti v Rafael Jodar

Jodar is on fire and Musetti is still far from his best after injury, so the Spaniard is backed for a straight sets victory.

Under 2.5

Total Sets

$1.60 - 2 Units

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Jodar 2-0

Set Betting

$2.28 - 1 Unit

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