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Brisbane Broncos vs Newcastle Knights NRL Round 22 Tips & Prediction - Knights to bounce back at Suncorp

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu 30 Jul 2026 07:03

Andrew Hendrie 30 Jul 2026

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Brisbane Broncos vs Newcastle Knights predictions for Saturday's NRL R22 game
Knights tipped for a return to the winners circle with a close win
Fletcher Sharpe boasts a strong tryscoring record at Suncorp & tipped to cross again
The game is scheduled for kick off at 7.35pm AEST on Saturday August 1

Brisbane Broncos vs Newcastle Knights NRL Round 22 Tips & Prediction

The Broncos gave it everything last week to no avail, with their season all but over. Newcastle have lost three straight games, but all were by two points or less - they are tipped to bounce back with an upset victory at Suncorp on Saturday night, with key man Fletcher Sharpe leading the way.

Brisbane Broncos vs Newcastle Knights NRL Round 22 Tips & Prediction
Broncos vs Knights Stats & Trends
Broncos vs Knights Head To Head
Brisbane Broncos Form Analysis
Newcastle Knights Form Analysis
Broncos vs Knights Team News

I can't see the Broncos getting up for this one and playing at Suncorp doesn't really give them any advantage considering they've lost their last five games at home.

Yes, Brisbane are still mathematically in with a finals shot, but in reality, their season was done following last week's defeat to the Cowboys. The Broncos are putting in the effort and had Ezra Mam reeled in that kick in the second half things could have turned out different, but it's just not meant to be for Michael Maguire's side in 2026.

Newcastle are going through a difficult period, losing three heartbreaking games on the trot, while two of their best players in Dylan Brown and Dylan Lucas have been struck down by season-ending injuries.

Not ideal at all for the Knights, but I believe this is a great opportunity to restore some confidence and re-establish their top eight status.

The Broncos have only won six games all year and it's just not happening, even with their big guns back. I'm taking the Knights for the upset and via a 1-12 margin, with both teams involved in very close games lately - although I wouldn't be surprised by a blowout here if the Broncos shut up shop for the year.

I like Fletcher Sharpe to cross for the Knights - he's a big game player and has thrived at Suncorp during his short career. Second-rower Francis Manuleleua represents value starting on the edge if the Broncos throw in the towel and their defence starts leaking points.

Broncos vs Knights Stats & Trends

Broncos are 6-12 for the year
Broncos are 0-5 in their last five games at Suncorp
Broncos have scored just 64 points in their last five games
Broncos have seen a 1-12 margin in their last four games
Knights' last six games have been decided by six points or less, with five decided by two points or less
Knights have seen a 1-12 margin in their last eight games
Fletcher Sharpe has scored five tries in his last two games at Suncorp
Francis Manuleleua scored last week and starts in the second-row with Lucas out injured

Broncos vs Knights Head To Head

Broncos have won six straight games over the Knights, scoring 199 points during that period.

Year	Winner	Score	Venue
2025	Brisbane	46–12	McDonald Jones Stadium
2024	Brisbane	30–14	McDonald Jones Stadium
2023	Brisbane	24–20	Suncorp Stadium
2022	Brisbane	28–10	Suncorp Stadium
2022	Brisbane	36–12	McDonald Jones Stadium

Brisbane Broncos Form Analysis

Nightmare premiership defence for the Broncos.

They lost some big guns to injury at the start of the year and have simply never found their groove.

Reece Walsh, Payne Haas, Ezra Mam and more have returned, but the magic from last year has escaped them.

Brisbane, to their credit, have battled hard over the last month, going down in close games against top four sides Cronulla and the Roosters, along with beating Penrith.

However, they just couldn't match the Cowboys last week, going down 18-10 in a defeat that all but ends their season.

Newcastle Knights Form Analysis

Challenging little period for the Knights and they desperately need a win here in order to avoid a real scrap for a top eight spot.

Newcastle were flying with seven wins from eight games, but a run of three consecutive defeats have seen them drop to seventh on the ladder, just two points ahead of the ninth-placed Bulldogs.

The Knights easily could have won all three of those games, which would see them challenging for the top four, but the reality is rugby league is decided by fine margins and Justin Holbrook's side have come out on the wrong end lately.

After a 26-24 defeat to the Rabbitohs, the Knights went down 20-18 to the Sharks before last week's 23-22 defeat to the Chooks at home, with Daly Cherry-Evans kicking the match-winning field goal in the 78th minute.

Broncos vs Knights Team News

Gehamat Shibasaki has been dropped for Brisbane, with Deine Mariner moving to centre and Grant Anderson coming onto the wing. Vaa Semu starts at prop, with Preston Riki out injured.

Huge blow for the Knights with Dylan Brown and Dylan Lucas suffering season-ending injuries last week, however a big inclusion with superstar fullback Kalyn Ponga returning.

Fletcher Hunt goes back to the bench with Dane Gagai also returning at centre, with Sandon Smith and Fletcher Sharpe the halves. Jermaine McEwen is back from a hamstring injury for Lucas in the second-row.

Broncos	Position	Knights
Reece Walsh	Fullback	Kalyn Ponga
Josiah Karapani	Winger	Dominic Young
Kotoni Staggs	Centre	Dane Gagai
Deine Mariner	Centre	Bradman Best
Grant Anderson	Winger	Greg Marzhew
Ezra Mam	Five-Eighth	Fletcher Sharpe
Adam Reynolds	Halfback	Sandon Smith
Va'a Semu	Prop	Cody Hopwood
Cory Paix	Hooker	Phoenix Crossland
Payne Haas	Prop	Trey Mooney
Xavier Willison	Second Row	Jermaine McEwen
Jordan Riki	Second Row	Francis Manuleleua
Patrick Carrigan	Lock	Mat Croker
Billy Walters	Interchange	Harrison Graham
Ben Talty	Interchange	Tyson Frizell
Jaiyden Hunt	Interchange	Thomas Cant
Ben Hunt	Interchange	Brodie Jones
Luke Gale	Interchange	Fletcher Hunt
Hayze Perham	Interchange	Lachlan Crouch

Verdict

Brisbane Broncos v Newcastle Knights

The Knights are backed for the upset in a close game, with Sharpe playing a starring role.

Knights Win

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