Hawthorn vs North Melbourne AFL Round 21 Tips - Comfortable win for Hawks in Tassie
Hawthorn takes on North Melbourne in AFL Round 21, 2026, with experts predicting a strong showing from the Hawks. Hawthorn's attacking style has overwhelmed weaker sides all season, recently winning their last three games by huge margins. North Melbourne continues its rebuild and struggles against top teams, losing their past four games against the Hawks by an average of 75 points. Key players like Nick Watson and Jack Ginnivan are expected to shine, with Hawthorn tipped to cover the 35.5 point line easily. Injury updates and team news from both sides are included.
- The game will be played at UTAS Stadium on Saturday, 1st August, with the bounce at 1:35 PM (AEST)
- Can the Kangas stand up against a top side?
- Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet
Hawthorn vs North Melbourne, Round 21 2026 - Expert Prediction
- Hawthorn vs North Melbourne, Round 21 2026 - Expert Prediction
- Head to Head Stats
- Hawthorn Form Analysis
- North Melbourne Form Analysis
- Hawthorn vs North Melbourne Team List & News
- Hawthorn Team News
- North Melbourne Team News
- Hawthorn vs North Melbourne AFL 2026 Round 21 FAQ’s
Hawthorn will feast on a shot North Melbourne outfit and cover the 35.5 point line at UTAS Stadium on Saturday.
Their fast, attacking style has consistently overwhelmed lower-ranked opposition this season and the Hawks have won their past three matches by 64, 70 and 93 points, underlining the gulf between themselves and the competition's struggling sides.
The Hawks' forward line is firing on all cylinders and that's bad news for North Melbourne. Nick Watson is the most dangerous small forward in the competition, despite the heavy attention he attracts each week, and with the amount of inside 50 supply Hawthorn is generating, "The Wizard" looms as a major multiple-goal threat once again.
It isn't just Watson creating headaches for opposition defences. Jack Gunston comes off seven goals, while Mabior Chol and Jack Ginnivan have thrived on this match up in the past.
North Melbourne's rebuild continues to travelk at a crawl and they are still a long way from consistently matching the AFL's best sides. The Kangaroos have not won any of their past 37 matchups against top eight sides and struggle to defend opposition ball movement, conceding heavy scores on a regular basis and allowing quality teams to break games open with rapid scoring bursts.
They have lost their past four against the Hawks by an average margin of 75 points and with Sam Mitchell’s side likely to come out firing after being slow out of the blocks at their last visit to their home away from home, UTAS, this could be a long day for the Roos.
Take the Hawks to cover with Watson and Ginnivan amongst the goals.
- Hawthorn have won their past three matches by an average margin of 75 points.
- The Hawks have won seven straight against the Kangaroos with the last four by an average of 75 points.
- Nick Watson has kicked three goals in his two matches against the Roos.
- Jack Ginnivan has kicked 2+ goals in each of his five matches against North Melbourne.
Head to Head Stats
Hawthorn have taken out the past seven against North Melbourne and have not lost to the Kangaroos since Sam Mitchell has been coach, meaning that his former master, Alistair Clarkson, is yet to register a win over his protege. The past four have been by an average of 75 points.
Standout player performances in the recent head to heads have come from:
- Luke Parker (Roos)- 25+ disposals in each of his past four against the Hawks
- Jai Newcombe (Hawks)- 30+ disposals in three of his past four against the Roos with 27 in the other.
- Will Day (Hawks)- 28 disposals and 29 disposals in his past two against the Roos.
- Jack Ginnivan (Hawks)- two goals in each of his five career matches against the Roos.
- Nick Watson (Hawks)- three goals in his two matches against the Roos.
- Jack Gunston (Hawks)- seven goals in the most recent meeting
- Mabior Chol (Hawks)- eight goals from his past two and 2+ in each of his five career matches against the Roos.
Hawthorn Form Analysis
Hawthorn have a win-loss record of 13-5 as well as a draw and are just two points behind 2nd placed Sydney. They come off a 93 point win over Essendon and have won their past three by big margins with the win over the Bombers following 64 and 70-point victories over Carlton and Richmond.
A number of big name Hawks feasted against Essendon last weekend with Jack Gunston kicking seven goals, while Jarman Impey had the ball on a string from half-back with 37 disposals. Five further Hawks had 25+ including Josh Ward (33) and Connor McDonald.
Jarman Impey has had 34 and 37 disposals in the past two rounds, while McDonald has had 30+ in two of his past three. Nick Watson has kicked 3+ goals in his past five matches and has 47 for the season, level with his teammate, Jack Gunston, with that pair just seven behind Charlie Curnow in the Coleman Medal. The Hawks have been a high scoring side in recent times, averaging 109 points per game from their past six matches.
The Hawks travel to Launceston for the fourth time this season and lost their last match at the venue to Melbourne by 35 points. They were down by 96 at one stage before fighting back. The Hawks had won their past 12 at the venue.
North Melbourne Form Analysis
North Melbourne come into Round 21 with an 8-11 win-loss record and have lost their past four with their top 10 hopes all but gone after dropping their Round 20 match to St Kilda by 31 points.
They could not contain Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera last weekend, while they were smashed in the clearances 41-23, leading to the 8.14.62 to 13.15.93 scoreline. Scoring has been an issue for the Kangas, averaging just 67 points per game in theit last eight matches.
Harry Sheezel and Jy Smipkin both had 29 disposals against the Saints, while Jack Darling (three goals) and Paul Curtis (two) were the multiple goalkickers. Sheezel has had 27+ disposals in his past nine matches, hitting 30+ in six of those, while Simpkin has had 25+ in his past three. Darling has kicked 2+ in four of his past five, while Curtis has hit that mark in his past three.
The Kangaroos have lost their five matches this season to top six opponents by an average of 48 points but that figure is inflated due to their 124 point loss to Fremantle in Round 13.
Hawthorn vs North Melbourne Team List & News
- To be updated after team selection on Thursday.
Hawthorn Team News
Hawthorn are set to lose Mitch Lewis to concussion, which may give Luke McCabe another crack. Calsher Dear was quiet in the VFL with one goal last weekend. Aidan Schubert is another that the Hawks might consider. The promising defender, Noah Mraz, is another casualty from the Bombers match and will miss with a kidney injury
North Melbourne Team News
Charlie Comben pulled up a with sore ribs from the loss tO St Kilda and will be assessed during the week. Luke McDonald and Tom Powell missed the Saints match and will be out to prove their fitness during the week. George Wardlaw is edging closer to a return from a hamstring injury.
Hawthorn vs North Melbourne AFL 2026 Round 21 FAQ’s
- How to watch Hawthorn vs North Melbourne AFL 2026 Round 21?
You can watch the Hawthorn vs North Melbourne AFL 2026 Round 21 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.
- How to buy tickets to Hawthorn vs North Melbourne AFL 2026 Round 21?
To buy tickets to the Hawthorn vs North Melbourne AFL 2026 Round 21 game check the AFL website or the official Hawthorn site.
Verdict
Hawthorn to cover with the Wiz and Ginnivan amongst the goal
Hawthorn -35.5
Line
$1.88 - 1 Unit
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