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Hawthorn vs North Melbourne AFL Round 21 Tips - Comfortable win for Hawks in Tassie

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: Thu. 30 Jul. 2026 13:49

Adam Cusworth 30 Jul. 2026

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The game will be played at UTAS Stadium on Saturday, 1st August, with the bounce at 1:35 PM (AEST)
Can the Kangas stand up against a top side?
Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet

Hawthorn vs North Melbourne, Round 21 2026 - Expert Prediction

Hawthorn vs North Melbourne, Round 21 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head Stats
Hawthorn Form Analysis
North Melbourne Form Analysis
Hawthorn vs North Melbourne Team List & News
Hawthorn Team News
North Melbourne Team News
Hawthorn vs North Melbourne AFL 2026 Round 21 FAQ’s

Hawthorn will feast on a shot North Melbourne outfit and cover the 35.5 point line at UTAS Stadium on Saturday.

Their fast, attacking style has consistently overwhelmed lower-ranked opposition this season and the Hawks have won their past three matches by 64, 70 and 93 points, underlining the gulf between themselves and the competition's struggling sides.

The Hawks' forward line is firing on all cylinders and that's bad news for North Melbourne. Nick Watson is the most dangerous small forward in the competition, despite the heavy attention he attracts each week, and with the amount of inside 50 supply Hawthorn is generating, "The Wizard" looms as a major multiple-goal threat once again.

It isn't just Watson creating headaches for opposition defences. Jack Gunston comes off seven goals, while Mabior Chol and Jack Ginnivan have thrived on this match up in the past.

North Melbourne's rebuild continues to travelk at a crawl and they are still a long way from consistently matching the AFL's best sides. The Kangaroos have not won any of their past 37 matchups against top eight sides and struggle to defend opposition ball movement, conceding heavy scores on a regular basis and allowing quality teams to break games open with rapid scoring bursts.

They have lost their past four against the Hawks by an average margin of 75 points and with Sam Mitchell’s side likely to come out firing after being slow out of the blocks at their last visit to their home away from home, UTAS, this could be a long day for the Roos.

Take the Hawks to cover with Watson and Ginnivan amongst the goals.

Hawthorn have won their past three matches by an average margin of 75 points.
The Hawks have won seven straight against the Kangaroos with the last four by an average of 75 points.
Nick Watson has kicked three goals in his two matches against the Roos.
Jack Ginnivan has kicked 2+ goals in each of his five matches against North Melbourne.

Head to Head Stats

Hawthorn have taken out the past seven against North Melbourne and have not lost to the Kangaroos since Sam Mitchell has been coach, meaning that his former master, Alistair Clarkson, is yet to register a win over his protege. The past four have been by an average of 75 points.

Standout player performances in the recent head to heads have come from:

Luke Parker (Roos)- 25+ disposals in each of his past four against the Hawks
Jai Newcombe (Hawks)- 30+ disposals in three of his past four against the Roos with 27 in the other.
Will Day (Hawks)- 28 disposals and 29 disposals in his past two against the Roos.
Jack Ginnivan (Hawks)- two goals in each of his five career matches against the Roos.
Nick Watson (Hawks)- three goals in his two matches against the Roos.
Jack Gunston (Hawks)- seven goals in the most recent meeting
Mabior Chol (Hawks)- eight goals from his past two and 2+ in each of his five career matches against the Roos.

Hawthorn Form Analysis

Hawthorn have a win-loss record of 13-5 as well as a draw and are just two points behind 2nd placed Sydney. They come off a 93 point win over Essendon and have won their past three by big margins with the win over the Bombers following 64 and 70-point victories over Carlton and Richmond.

A number of big name Hawks feasted against Essendon last weekend with Jack Gunston kicking seven goals, while Jarman Impey had the ball on a string from half-back with 37 disposals. Five further Hawks had 25+ including Josh Ward (33) and Connor McDonald.

Jarman Impey has had 34 and 37 disposals in the past two rounds, while McDonald has had 30+ in two of his past three. Nick Watson has kicked 3+ goals in his past five matches and has 47 for the season, level with his teammate, Jack Gunston, with that pair just seven behind Charlie Curnow in the Coleman Medal. The Hawks have been a high scoring side in recent times, averaging 109 points per game from their past six matches.

The Hawks travel to Launceston for the fourth time this season and lost their last match at the venue to Melbourne by 35 points. They were down by 96 at one stage before fighting back. The Hawks had won their past 12 at the venue.

North Melbourne Form Analysis

North Melbourne come into Round 21 with an 8-11 win-loss record and have lost their past four with their top 10 hopes all but gone after dropping their Round 20 match to St Kilda by 31 points.

They could not contain Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera last weekend, while they were smashed in the clearances 41-23, leading to the 8.14.62 to 13.15.93 scoreline. Scoring has been an issue for the Kangas, averaging just 67 points per game in theit last eight matches.

Harry Sheezel and Jy Smipkin both had 29 disposals against the Saints, while Jack Darling (three goals) and Paul Curtis (two) were the multiple goalkickers. Sheezel has had 27+ disposals in his past nine matches, hitting 30+ in six of those, while Simpkin has had 25+ in his past three. Darling has kicked 2+ in four of his past five, while Curtis has hit that mark in his past three.

The Kangaroos have lost their five matches this season to top six opponents by an average of 48 points but that figure is inflated due to their 124 point loss to Fremantle in Round 13.

Hawthorn vs North Melbourne Team List & News

Hawthorn Team News

First-round draft pick Aidan Schubert will make his AFL debut as Hawthorn's eighth debutant of the season. Finn Maginness also returns, while Mitch Lewis and Noah Mraz both miss through injury.

North Melbourne Team News

Alastair Clarkson has recalled Wil Dawson and Tom Blamires after omitting Matt Whitlock and Cooper Harvey following last week's defeat.

Hawthorn	POS	North Melbourne
J. Sicily, T. Barrass, B. Hardwick	B	A. Corr, C. Comben, L. Parker
J. Impey, B. Macdonald, J. Battle	HB	J. Goater, C. Daniel, C. McKercher
H. Morrison, W. Day, C. Macdonald	C	B. Scott, L. Davies-Uniacke, D. Stephens
D. Moore, M. Chol, O. Greeves	HF	C. Spargo, C. Trembath, J. Simpkin
N. Watson, A. Schubert, J. Gunston	F	C. Zurhaar, N. Larkey, P. Curtis
L. Meek, J. Newcombe, C. Mackenzie	FOLL	T. Xerri, F. O'Sullivan, H. Sheezel
F. Maginness, J. Weddle, J. Ward, M. D'Ambrosio, J. Ginnivan	I/C	W. Dawson, G. Logue, J. Darling, T. Blamires, Z. Banch

Hawthorn vs North Melbourne AFL 2026 Round 21 FAQ’s

How to watch Hawthorn vs North Melbourne AFL 2026 Round 21?
You can watch the Hawthorn vs North Melbourne AFL 2026 Round 21 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.
How to buy tickets to Hawthorn vs North Melbourne AFL 2026 Round 21?
To buy tickets to the Hawthorn vs North Melbourne AFL 2026 Round 21 game check the AFL website or the official Hawthorn site.

Verdict

Hawthorn v North Melbourne

Hawthorn to cover with the Wiz and Ginnivan amongst the goal

Hawthorn -35.5

Line

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