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Essendon vs Adelaide Crows AFL Round 21 Tips - Comfortable Crows win with Dawson and Milera to fill up
Adelaide Crows are expected to comfortably defeat Essendon in AFL 2026 Round 21 at Marvel Stadium. Key Crows players, Jordan Dawson and Wayne Milera, are tipped to rack up significant possession, exploiting Essendon’s inability to defend against opposition ball movement. While the Bombers struggle both offensively and defensively and are plagued by injuries, Adelaide’s strong pressure game and recent performances—especially at Marvel Stadium—point towards another heavy defeat for Essendon. The expert tip: Adelaide to cover the spread, with Dawson and Milera as standout performers.
- The game will be played at Marvel Stadium on Sunday, 2nd August, with the bounce at 4:40 PM (AEST)
- Can the Bombers avoid another heavy defeat?
- Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best be
Essendon vs Adelaide Crows, Round 21 2026 - Expert Prediction
- Essendon vs Adelaide Crows, Round 21 2026 - Expert Prediction
- Head to Head Stats
- Essendon Form Analysis
- Adelaide Crows Form Analysis
- Essendon vs Adelaide Crows Team List & News
- Essendon Team News
- Adelaide Crows Team News
- Essendon vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2026 Round 21 FAQ's
Adelaide will hand Essendon another heavy defeat when the two sides square off at Marvel Stadium in Round 21, while the likes of Jordan Dawson and Wayne Milera are set to find a stack of the footy.
The Crows remain in top six calculations despite their loss to Collingwood last weekend and will control possession for long periods against an Essendon side that continues to struggle defending opposition ball movement.
The Bombers come off a 93-point loss to Hawthorn and have no answers to opposition ball movement, conceding 139 uncontested marks to Hawthorn, while being smashed in the disposal count, 462-302.
That shapes as the perfect platform for Adelaide's elite users by foot, with Jordan Dawson and Wayne Milera well placed to accumulate possessions as the Crows switch the ball and pick apart Essendon's defensive structure.
Dawson and Milera have been central to Adelaide's ball movement throughout the second half of the season. Milera was among the Crows' best against both Sydney and Collingwood, while Dawson has continued to impact both as a midfielder and distributor behind the ball.
Essendon has repeatedly allowed opposition half-backs and midfielders to rack up uncontested possessions, with Jarman Impey collecting 37 disposals and generating 836 metres gained last weekend as Hawthorn consistently found uncontested exits from defence.
Adelaide's pressure around the contest should also expose Essendon's biggest weakness. The Crows remain one of the AFL's stronger pressure teams and will force plenty of turnovers before controlling territory.
This will allow Adelaide to pile on the goals against the Bombers, who were upset winners at their last visit to Marvel Stadium against GWS. But in matches this season against the top six, they have copped some hefty beatings. Expect that trend to continue with Dawson and Milera finding a stack of the footy.
Essendon’s past two matches against top six opponents have resulted in 90 and 93 point losses.
Adelaide have won their past five matches at Marvel Stadium were 57-point winners over the Bulldogs in their only visit to the venue this season.
Wayne Milera is averaging over 25 disposals this season.
Jordan Dawson has had 30+ disposals in two of his past three against the Bombers
Head to Head Stats
Adelaide have won the past two matches between the two sides with the most recent coming way back in Round 2 last season, a match that went the way of the Crows by 61 points. The Bombers have won four of the past five between the two sides at Marvel Stadium.
Standout player performances in the recent head to heads have come from:
- Zach Merrett (Dons)- 30+ disposals in seven of his past eight against the Crows with 28 in the other, averaging just under 33 in that period.
- Jordan Dawson (Crows)- 30+ disposals in two of his past three against the Bombers.
- Peter Wright (Dons)- three goals in three of his past four against the Crows with two in the other.
- Josh Rachele (Crows)- seven goals from his past two matches against the Bombers.
Essendon Form Analysis
Essendon enjoyed their second win of the season when knocking over GWS a fortnight ago by three points but copped a reality check last weekend, going down by 93 points to Hawthorn at the MCG.
They were smashed in the disposal count 462-302, leading to 68 inside 50s to 38. Nate Caddy was solid up forward with three goals from limited opportunities, while Peter Wright booted two. Caddy has kicked 2+ goals in four of his past five matches. Zach Merret was their leading disposal winner with 22 but nine Hawks had higher than that figure.
The Bombers are struggling to impact the scoreboard and are averaging 56 points per game since Dean Solomon took over the coaching reigns from Brad Scott. They concede more disposals than any other side in the competition, with opposition midfielders racking up big numbers in recent times.
Adelaide Crows Form Analysis
Adelaide were given a bit of a reality check last weekend by Collingwood when the Magpies kicked clear in the second half of the Adelaide Oval encounter to win by 34. They had won six of seven heading into that match and were coming off a win against Sydney in Sydney.
The Crows were unable to handle Collingwood’s pressure and were denied freedom from defensive 50, achieving an inside forward 50 just three times from 34 defensive 50 chains and were unable to score from the zone. The last time they were scoreless from the zone was Round 18, 2024.
Sam Berry was excellent in the middle with 30 disposals and 10 clearances, while Izak Rankine registered 25. He has had 25+ in each of his past four matches. Taylor Walker and Riley Thilthorpe each kicked three goals but opportunities dried up as the night went on. Walker has kicked eight in his past two, while Thilthorpe has five in that period.
The Crows have won their past three matches outside of Adelaide this season, including their Round 19 win over the Sydney Swans, for a 5-3 record. They have taken out their past five at Marvel Stadium and were 57-point winners against the Western Bulldogs at their only visit to the venue this season.
Essendon vs Adelaide Crows Team List & News
Essendon Team News
The Bombers swing at least five changes, recalling Kyle Langford and Nick Bryan while Zach Johnson, Elijah Tsatas, Archie Perkins and Vigo Visentini have also been added to the squad. Jordan Ridley headlines a lengthy list of outs through injury and omission.
Adelaide Crows Team News
Archie Ludowyke and Oscar Ryan will both make their AFL debuts, while Mark Keane also returns from injury. Wayne Milera, James Peatling and Sam Berry are unavailable, with Finnbar Maley omitted.
| Essendon | POS | Adelaide Crows |
|---|---|---|
| A. McGrath, Z. Reid, Z. Johnson | B | J. Worrell, J. Borlase, M. Michalanney |
| J. Prior, A. Roberts, M. Redman | HB | I. Cumming, M. Keane, O. Ryan |
| A. Clarke, S. Durham, J. Artemis | C | L. Nankervis, J. Dawson, B. Cook |
| K. Langford, N. Caddy, A. Day-Wicks | HF | A. Neal-Bullen, R. Thilthorpe, J. Rachele |
| I. Kako, P. Wright, H. El Achkar | F | J. Soligo, T. Walker, A. Ludowyke |
| N. Bryan, Z. Merrett, D. Sharp | FOLL | L. McAndrew, I. Rankine, D. Curtin |
| J. Farrow, E. Tsatas, W. Setterfield, A. Perkins, M. Kondogiannis, R. Unwin, H. Jones, V. Visentini | I/C | C. Ah Chee, B. Keays, N. Murray, L. Sholl, Z. Taylor, T. Murray, B. Dowling, H. Hall-Kahan |
Essendon vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2026 Round 21 FAQ's
- How to watch Essendon vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2026 Round 21?
You can watch the Essendon vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2026 Round 21 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.
- How to buy tickets to Essendon vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2026 Round 21?
To buy tickets to the Essendon vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2026 Round 21 game check the AFL website or the official Essendon site.
Verdict
Adelaide to cover with Dawson and Milera finding plenty of footy
Adelaide -45.5
Line
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