Carlton vs Brisbane Lions AFL Round 21 Tips - Scary Lions to stamp authority against brave Blues
Brisbane Lions are strongly tipped to secure a comfortable win over Carlton in Round 21 at Marvel Stadium, cementing their status as top contenders for a top two spot. The Lions boast seven consecutive victories, showcasing their potent forward line and ability to finish games strongly. While Carlton have shown marked improvement under interim coach Josh Fraser, their inconsistency against top sides remains a key vulnerability. With prolific performances from Lachie Neale, Hugh McCluggage, and Kai Lohmann expected, Brisbane's superior system should see them pull away late in the match.
- The game will be played at Marvel Stadium on Saturday, 1st August, with the bounce at 7:40 PM (AEST)
- Can the Blues score an upset and remain in top 10 hunt?
- Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet
Carlton vs Brisbane Lions, Round 21 2026 - Expert Prediction
Brisbane will stamp their credentials for a top two spot and put a dent in Carlton’s top 10 aspirations with a comfortable win at Marvel Stadium on Saturday.
The Lions are in red-hot form, coming in with seven-straight wins. The Blues have won eight of 10 under their interim coach, Josh Fraser, to sit just outside the top 10.
Carlton's recent improvement shouldn't disguise the fact they remain a work in progress. They are capable of shwoing plenty of fight with the likes of Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh in the middle, but Brisbane's polished system and ability to sustain pressure for four quarters should expose those lingering weaknesses as the match wears on.
The Lions have developed a habit of breaking games open after half-time, kicking 14 goals in the second half against Port Adelaide after turning around a tight contest. They will use the ball more effectively and control possession through uncontested marks, a formula that is likely to cause Carlton plenty of headaches.
The Lions also possess far more avenues to goal than most sides in the competition. Zac Bailey, Kai Lohmann, Charlie Cameron and Logan Morris all come off three goals against Port Adelaide and they will be extremely difficult to defend once they begin controlling territory and generating repeat inside 50s.
Hugh McCluggage has rediscovered his best football, while Will Ashcroft and Lachie Neale continue to dominate through the midfield. Against a Carlton side still searching for consistency in its ball movement and forward connection, expect Brisbane's class to shine through in the second half and pull away to cover the 24.5-point line with Lohmann amongst the goals again, while Lachie Neale enjoys this match up.
- Brisbane have won seven matches in a row and are averaging 120 points per game in that period.
- Carlton are 0-6 against top six sides this season, losing those by an average margin of 34 points.
- Lachie Neale has had 30+ disposals in his past two matches against the Blues
- Kai Lohmann has kicked 15 goals in the past four rounds.
Head to Head Stats
Brisbane have taken out the past three matches between the two sides, including the Round 9 match at the GABBA this season by 11 points.
Standout player performances in the recent head to heads have come from:
- Sam Walsh (Blues)- 27+ disposals in each of his eight career matches against the Lions for an average of 30.
- Lachie Neale (Lions)- 30+ disposals in his past two against the Blues.
- Patrick Cripps (Blues)- 25+ in each of his past three against Brisbane, hitting 30+ in two of those.
- Logan Morris (Lions)- eight goals in three matches against the Blues
- Harry McKay (Blues)- three goals in each of his past three against the Lions.
Carlton Form Analysis
Carlton bounced back from their only two losses under Josh Fraser with a 13-point win in a see-sawing match against Gold Coast. That has kept their chances of a top 10 position well and truly alive and they are 8-2 since Fraser took over.
The Blues scored six goals to none from 12 forward-50 stoppages against Gold Coast, while Patrick Cripps recorded a whopping 15 clearances to go with his 30 disposals. Jagga Smith and Sam Walsh also had 30+. Both Walsh and Cripps have had 30+ in four of their past six matches.
George Hewett, Will Hayward and Talor Byrne each kicked three goals, while Mitch McGovern and Francis Evans chimed in with two each. McGovern has kicked two goals in each of his past three matches. The Blues kicked over 100 points last weekend for just the second time this season.
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
Brisbane come into Round 20 on a roll, recovering from a mid-season slump to win seven straight matches and firmly in the frame for a top four spot and potentially a top two.
They were too good for an undermanned Port Adelaide outfit at the GABBA last weekend, taking out the Round 21 clash by 49 points with Dayne Zorko picking up 34 disposals and Will Ashcroft registering 30. Hugh McCluggage found some form in a year that has been interrupted by injury. The classy mid had 29 disposals, while Logan Morris, Kai Lohmann, Charlie Cameron and Zac Bailey finished the work up forward with three goals apiece.
Ashcroft has had 30+ in his past six matches, while Lohmann has booted 15 in the past four rounds. Charlie Cameron has kicked 2+ goals in each of his past five, while Bailey has reached that mark in five of his past six.
The Lions have won their past four away matches and are 7-3 away from the GABBA in 2026. In their recent seven-match winning streak, they are averaging just under 120 points per game.
Carlton vs Brisbane Lions Team List & News
- To be updated after team selection on Thursday.
Carlton Team News
Nic Newman will miss with a hamstring injury, joining Jacob Weitering on the sidelines. Harry McKay is a chance to return from a knee issue.
Brisbane Lions Team News
Tough to break into the Lions side at the moment with just Darcy Gardiner, Jack Payne and Henry Smith on the injury list. The likes of Oscar Allen and Kaedean Coleman can’t quite crack into the side, while the promising youngster, Will McLachlan, kicked eight goals in the VFL last weekend. There were no injuries reported from the match against Port Adelaide but the Lions lose Ty Gallop to suspension
Verdict
Lions kick clear late and pass the line with Lohmann on for 3+ goals and Neale 30+ disposals
Brisbane -24.5
Line
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