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Jesse's AFL Round 21 Tips 2026: Predictions & Margins for Every Match

Jesse Mclure

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Last updated: Tue 28 Jul 2026 13:03

Jesse Mclure 2 hours ago

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Fremantle secures top spot; finals race intensifies.
Geelong tipped to edge Collingwood in a key clash.
St Kilda vs Carlton fight for wildcard spot; Richmond-West Coast faces for No. 1 draft pick.

Jess from True Footy's Marfing for every match of AFL Round 21.

Jesse's AFL Round 21 Tips 2026: Predictions & Margins for Every Match

With just a month remaining in the home-and-away season, every game is starting to shape the AFL finals picture.

Jesse's AFL Round 21 Tips 2026: Predictions & Margins for Every Match
Collingwood vs Geelong Prediction
Fremantle vs Western Bulldogs Prediction
St Kilda vs Sydney Prediction
Hawthorn vs North Melbourne Prediction
Port Adelaide vs GWS Giants Prediction
Carlton vs Brisbane Prediction
Richmond vs West Coast Prediction
Gold Coast vs Melbourne Prediction
Essendon vs Adelaide Prediction

Fremantle has already secured top spot, but the race for the remaining top-four positions is far from settled. Collingwood has emerged as a genuine finals disruptor, while the battle for the final wildcard position appears to be narrowing to St Kilda and Carlton. At the other end of the ladder, Richmond and West Coast meet in a clash that could determine who finishes with the No. 1 draft pick.

Here are Jesse's tips and predicted margins for every AFL Round 21 game.

Collingwood vs Geelong Prediction

This has quickly become one of the biggest games of the round after both clubs found form at exactly the right time.

Collingwood has rediscovered its contested-ball game, recording impressive wins over Carlton and Adelaide, while Geelong has responded to its mid-season slump with victories over St Kilda and Melbourne despite missing stars Jeremy Cameron and Max Holmes. Both sides appear to be building towards September, making this an intriguing heavyweight clash.

Expect another thriller between two teams peaking at the right time.

Jesse's Tip: Geelong by 2 points

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Fremantle vs Western Bulldogs Prediction

Fremantle continues to set the benchmark after another commanding Derby victory.

The Bulldogs have quietly won four of their past five games but still haven't produced the type of performance that suggests they can travel to Optus Stadium and knock off the competition's best side. Caleb Serong, Luke Jackson and Shai Bolton continue to drive a Dockers outfit that rarely lets teams control the contest for long.

The home side should remain firmly on top of the ladder.

Jesse's Tip: Fremantle by 33 points

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St Kilda vs Sydney Prediction

This shapes as one of the biggest wildcard games of the season.

Sydney has been slightly inconsistent over the past month but remains one of the AFL's genuine premiership contenders, while St Kilda continues to make Marvel Stadium a difficult venue for visiting teams. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera starred again last week and the Saints know a win here would significantly strengthen their grip on tenth spot.

Jesse is backing the upset.

Jesse's Tip: St Kilda by 8 points

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Hawthorn vs North Melbourne Prediction

Hawthorn returns to UTAS Stadium, where it has traditionally dominated.

North Melbourne has shown significant improvement this season and has been competitive against several finals contenders, but the Kangaroos are still searching for a breakthrough victory over one of the competition's genuine heavyweights. The Hawks remain firmly in the race for second place and have every reason to maintain their intensity.

Tasmania has become one of Hawthorn's biggest advantages.

Jesse's Tip: Hawthorn by 60 points

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Port Adelaide vs GWS Giants Prediction

Trying to predict GWS has become one of the AFL's impossible tasks.

The Giants continue to alternate between brilliant wins and frustrating defeats, while Port Adelaide has remained highly competitive despite missing Zak Butters for an extended period. Adelaide Oval gives the Power every chance, but GWS has enough talent to produce another upset.

This feels like a genuine 50-50 contest.

Jesse's Tip: GWS Giants by 13 points

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Carlton vs Brisbane Prediction

Carlton simply can't afford another loss if it wants to keep its finals hopes alive.

The Blues were too strong for Gold Coast last week but now face a Brisbane side that has rediscovered its premiership form. Lachie Neale and Will Ashcroft have Brisbane's midfield humming again, while the Lions continue to build momentum with September approaching.

Brisbane looks too polished at the moment.

Jesse's Tip: Brisbane Lions by 31 points

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Richmond vs West Coast Prediction

The battle to avoid the wooden spoon headlines Sunday afternoon.

West Coast has become far more competitive over recent weeks, but Richmond has consistently matched up well against the Eagles, particularly through turnover football. The Tigers have won recent meetings despite difficult circumstances and should again find enough scoring opportunities at the MCG.

It won't be pretty, but it could prove season-defining for both clubs.

Jesse's Tip: Richmond by 7 points

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Gold Coast vs Melbourne Prediction

Christian Petracca faces his former club for the first time since joining Gold Coast, adding another layer of intrigue.

The Suns have shown slight improvement over the past fortnight but remain stuck in a nine-game losing streak. Melbourne suffered a disappointing loss to Geelong and needs an immediate response to remain firmly inside the top-six race.

The Demons should prove too strong.

Jesse's Tip: Melbourne Demons by 30 points

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Essendon vs Adelaide Prediction

Essendon's emotional win over GWS was one of the stories of last weekend.

The challenge now is backing it up against an Adelaide side desperate to remain in the hunt for a top-four finish. Jordan Dawson continues to lead one of the AFL's most dangerous midfields, while the Crows will be determined to respond after their surprise loss to Collingwood.

Adelaide should bounce back comfortably.

Jesse's Tip: Adelaide Crows by 38 points