Australian Federal Election Line Betting - Labor tipped to cover -12.5 seat line

Bets.com.au Staff

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Last updated: 02 May 2025

Bets.com.au Staff 02 May 2025

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Line betting now available for upcoming Australian Federal Election on May 3
Online bookmaker PlayUp offering line odds
Labor currently favoured to cover a -12.5 seats line

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SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA - APRIL 28: Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (Photo by Getty Images)

The 2025 Australian Federal Election will take place on Saturday May 3 and some bookmakers are now offering line betting odds.

Recent polling and seat modelling indicate that the Australian Labor Party is favoured to win the most seats in the 2025 federal election, but is not projected to secure a clear majority. The most robust and up-to-date seat projection comes from YouGov’s March 2025 MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) model, which forecasts:

Labor: 75 seats (just one short of the 76 needed for a majority in the 150-seat House of Representatives)
Coalition: 60 seats
Independents: 11 seats
Greens: 2 seats
Katter’s Australian Party: 1 seat
Centre Alliance: 1 seat

This central projection suggests Labor would fall one seat short of a majority, resulting in a likely hung parliament but with Labor in the strongest position to form government.

Range of Possible Outcomes

YouGov’s model provides a range for Labor’s result:

69 to 80 seats for Labor

55 to 68 seats for the Coalition

7 to 12 seats for Independents

1 to 3 seats for the Greens

Recent Polling Context

Labor’s two-party-preferred (2PP) lead over the Coalition is currently at a record high, with recent polls showing Labor at 53.5% to the Coalition’s 46.5%.

This polling advantage would typically translate to a swing towards Labor and potentially more seats. However, the MRP seat model takes into account local factors and marginal seat dynamics, which temper the national swing’s impact on seat gains.

Comparisons and Trends

In the 2022 election, Labor won 77 seats (a majority in the then-151 seat House).

The current projection of 75 seats would be a net loss of 2 seats for Labor, despite a strong national 2PP showing.

The seat model reflects the impact of local contests, independent candidates and preference flows, which are especially significant in Australia’s electoral system.

If the 2025 Australian federal election were held today, the best available seat projection indicates Labor would win 75 seats-one seat short of a majority in the 150-seat House of Representatives. This would likely result in a hung parliament, with Labor in the strongest position to form government, potentially with support from independents or minor parties.

Betting Tip

Australian Federal Election Line BettingLabor -12.5 Seats$1.70 - bet here

18+ only. Ts and Cs apply. Think ! About your choices. Call Gambling Help on 1800 858 858 or visit the website. All bets accepted on behalf of PlayUp Interactive Pty Ltd Licensed in Northern Territory, Australia by NT Racing Commission. www.gamblinghelp.nsw.gov.au

Labor is projected to win by a margin of 15 seats over the Coalition (75 Labor vs 60 Coalition), but by one seat short of a majority in the House.