Australian Federal Election 2025 Betting Preview & Tips - Who Will Win Government?

Bets.com.au Staff

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Last updated: 28 Apr 2025

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Bets.com.au Staff 28 Apr 2025

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Betting markets now favor Labor to win the 2025 Australian election
Despite mixed polls, Anthony Albanese's leadership gives Labor an edge
Incumbency and recent policies have boosted confidence in Labor

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to retain power? (Getty Images)

Australia’s May 2025 federal election is shaping up as a tight contest, but betting markets have recently shifted to favor the incumbent Labor Party.

After months of the opposition Coalition holding favouritism, a flurry of wagers has flipped the odds.

As of April 28, Australian wagering sites now have Labor as the frontrunner to form the next government, with the Liberal-National Coalition drifting to underdog status

Current Australian Federal Election Betting Odds

Bookmaker	Labor (ALP)	Coalition (LNP)	Any Other Outcome
Ladbrokes	$1.16	$5.00	$201
Unibet	$1.17	$5.25	$101
Neds	$1.16	$5.00	$201
Elitebet	$1.20	$4.75	$501

Odds for “Next Government” as of April 28th, 2025. (Labor vs Coalition; “Any Other” refers to minor parties or independents forming government, which is a very long shot.)

The current odds imply roughly a 80% probability for Labor and around 20% for the Coalition when converting to probabilities.

Just a few months ago, it was the opposite as the Coalition had been favored in late 2024. Bettors have clearly responded to recent developments by piling onto Labor.

Labor is now the clear favorite to win the election.

Polls vs Odds

It’s interesting that betting markets swung toward Labor even as some opinion polls show a very competitive race.

The latest Newspoll in The Australian has the Coalition ahead on primary vote (39% vs 32% for Labor).

In two-party preferred terms the contest narrows once minor party preferences are distributed - and many observers expect Labor to benefit from preferences.

In addition, Anthony Albanese leads Peter Dutton as “better Prime Minister” by nearly 10 points in that same poll.

This suggests Albanese’s personal appeal may be bolstering Labor’s chances of staying in power, even if the raw primary vote is lagging.

Betting markets tend to match up all this information - polls, historical trends and gut feeling from punters.

There’s an ongoing debate about whether pollsters or punters are more accurate predictors. In 2019, for example, the polls famously got it wrong when predicting a Labor win that never came, whereas betting markets had a late swing toward the Coalition.

For 2025, the weight of money now aligns with a Labor win. Why are punters backing Labor despite mixed polling? A few likely reasons.

Firstly, the incumbency advantage – Australians rarely throw out a first-term government. Labor’s victory in 2022 was significant and it would be historically unusual for them to lose power after one term.

Secondly, the Albanese government’s budget and policy moves may have shored up confidence. The recent federal budget seems to have been a turning point that sparked heavy betting on Labor.

Finally, the opposition hasn’t yet convinced bettors it can attract enough seats – especially given the need to also contend with a large crossbench of independents and minor parties.

Momentum & Market Shifts

The odds have not been static – they’ve moved in response to campaign events. Late in 2024, the Coalition was actually favored to win (Labor was out to about $1.95 at one point, with the Coalition around $1.80 on Ladbrokes).

That reflected some setbacks for the government and perhaps optimism about Peter Dutton gaining traction. However, since then Labor’s odds have shortened dramatically.

One week saw Labor firm from $2.15 into $2.05, coinciding with a Coalition policy announcement to halve the fuel excise. After the budget, Labor’s price became the shortest it had been in six months.

Bettors are essentially weighing whether Albanese’s incumbents can hold on, or Dutton’s opposition can sway enough seats.

One factor bettors consider is the geographic battleground. Labor won 78 seats in 2022 (a majority is 76), and many of those were won with slim margins. The Coalition must pick up over 10 seats net if they are to win.

The uncertainty about key individual seats in the election adds to overall volatility. Punters might be hedging by favoring continuity (Labor) unless a big swing emerges in polls.

As of now, roughly 70% of bets in recent weeks have been for Labor, according to insiders. That weight of money has pushed their odds into favorite status.

“Peter Dutton was the firm favourite to become Prime Minister, but the markets have moved substantially after a bumpy month,” noted one betting analyst.

A month ago, many believed Dutton could lead the Coalition back to power; now, punters see Albanese as more likely to continue as PM.

Indeed, “a week is a long time in politics”, and a single debate or gaffe during the campaign could still swing sentiment. Bettors will be watching the campaign trail closely for any shifts.

Betting Tip: Labor to Win (with Caution)

At this stage, the betting market consensus leans towards a Labor victory – and it’s hard to disagree.

The government has the advantage of incumbency, a friendly electoral map in some states, and the backing of most punters so far.

Backing Labor around $1.30 on average is a solid play for those who believe the trend will hold. It’s not a high-flying payout, but it reflects the slightly better-than-even chance of Labor forming the next government.

For a bit more value, you could consider alternative markets like “Labor to win most seats” or even combine Labor with other outcomes in a multi-bet.

Conversely, value-seekers might eye the Coalition at $3+. If you’re convinced the polls will tighten further or that Australia might “return to blue,” then getting better than 3-to-1 odds on the opposition could be enticing.

Overall, our recommendation is to back Labor to retain government. The odds aren’t windfall-level, but they mirror the pragmatic assessment that Albanese is slightly ahead in this race.

Keep an eye on the campaign developments; if momentum shifts again, there may be opportunities to hedge or adjust. But for now, Labor’s steadier outlook and the betting momentum make them the pick to win the 2025 election.