Anthony Albanese vs Peter Dutton - Next Australian Prime Minister Odds

Bets.com.au Staff

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Last updated: 28 Apr 2025

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Bets.com.au Staff 28 Apr 2025

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Australian federal election pits current PM Albanese against opposition leader Dutton
Albanese favored in polls and betting odds due to incumbency and steady approval ratings
Dutton focuses campaign on economic issues, aiming to shift the narrative away from personal appeal.

Anthony Albanese vs Peter Dutton (Getty Images)

Australian federal elections present a choice between two leaders for Prime Minister and in 2025 it’s Anthony Albanese (Labor) versus Peter Dutton (Liberal).

Betting markets for “Next PM” mirror the odds for which party will win government as it’s almost certain that either Albanese or Dutton will lead the next government.

Albanese is the favorite to remain Prime Minister after the election with Ladbrokes having Labor more likely to form government (around $1.20) with the Coalition trailing (around $5.00).

That translates to roughly a 80% implied chance for Albanese to continue as PM, versus around 20% for Dutton.

This is a significant reversal from late last year, when Dutton was actually favored in some betting markets to become the next PM.

The contest has since “presidentialized” around Albanese’s incumbency vs Dutton’s appeal as an alternative.

It’s worth noting that in Australia’s Westminster system, voters don’t directly elect the PM – they elect local MPs. However, the party leaders’ popularity is a huge factor, and bookmakers take that into account.

Market Momentum and Perceptions

Earlier in the campaign cycle, Peter Dutton was the firm favorite to become Prime Minister in the Federal Election betting odds.

The Coalition’s surprise win in the 2022 Aston by-election and some mid-term woes for Labor had bettors thinking Dutton had a serious shot at one-terming Albanese.

However, over the past month the market mood shifted thanks to a combination of factors.

A well-received Labor budget, internal Coalition distractions and Dutton’s personal ratings saw money swing back to Albanese.

Albanese is now ahead in the betting for the first time in almost half a year with public perception playing a big role.

Albanese’s approval ratings, while not sky-high, have been steady, and he’s generally seen as a slightly safer, more likable choice in polls (he leads Dutton in “better PM” metrics).

Dutton, on the other hand, carries some baggage from his long tenure in the previous government and a public image that Labor has frequently attacked as “divisive” or “hardline”.

To address this, Dutton has attempted something of a rebranding – softening his image on certain issues – but the election will test whether voters accept that.

As one Guardian analysis put it, this campaign will reveal if Dutton has managed to shed the “hardman” reputation and appear as a national leader.

If Dutton’s personal approval improves during the campaign, we might see his odds shorten again. Conversely, any stumble by Albanese (in debates or interviews) could narrow the gap.

This dynamic is reflected in odds that, while favoring Albanese, aren’t overly prohibitive – there’s still plenty of chance for Dutton to catch up.

Polling vs Betting – Leadership Edition

Opinion polls on preferred Prime Minister have consistently shown Albanese ahead of Dutton, though by varying margins.

Newspoll’s latest has Albanese preferred by 47% to Dutton’s 38%. That near-10-point gap in personal popularity bolsters the case for Albanese among bettors.

Punters know that an opposition leader who isn’t at least neck-and-neck as “preferred PM” faces an uphill battle – swing voters often stick with the devil they know.

Still, Australian history has examples (like 2019) where the less popular leader won the election due to party factors or campaign performance.

Dutton’s camp is surely aware of this and will try to make the campaign about Albanese’s government record rather than a likability contest. T

he Coalition’s messaging so far has hammered cost-of-living issues. Dutton recently summed up his pitch: “Right now, Australia is going backwards”, he said, arguing that hard-working people are falling behind and implying Albanese is to blame.

If that narrative gains traction, some voters may overlook Dutton’s harsher image in favor of change.

Any Other Contenders?

While Albanese and Dutton dominate, some markets list long-shot contenders for PM – essentially “any other”.

These include scenarios like a hung parliament where a minor party or independent could theoretically become PM, or one of the major parties winning but with a different leader (for example, if Dutton lost his own seat of Dickson, the Coalition would have to pick someone else as PM).

Such outcomes are very remote. The “Other” option is paying $101 or $201 with bookmakers offering this market.

Dutton’s seat is marginal (1.7% margin) and one of the key seats in the election, but it would be a massive upset if he lost it and Albanese’s seat is very safe.

Our Verdict and Suggested Bet

Anthony Albanese appears to have the edge to continue as Prime Minister. He has the advantage of incumbency, better personal approval and the odds in his favor.

Next Australia Prime MinisterAnthony Albanese (Labor)$1.16 - Bet here

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Barring a major campaign twist, it’s reasonable to back Albanese to retain the Prime Ministership.

He’s ahead in the race and, importantly, has fewer hurdles to clear to get there. Keep an eye on the debates and daily campaign narrative; any significant change could still swing sentiment.

But Albanese at around $1.20 is a reflection of a moderately likely outcome – not a guaranteed one, but a solid probability.