Australian Election 2025 Betting and Odds

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Australian Federal Election - Three Value Bets to Consider

Bets.com.au Staff

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Last updated: Fri 02 May 2025 05:24

Bets.com.au Staff 02 May 2025

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The 2025 Australian Federal Election will take place on Saturday May 3
We've outlined three value tips surrounding Labor for key seats
Labor can win key seats in Gilmore, Chisholm & Dickson - reasoning provided below

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Australian Prime Minsister Anthony Albanese and Labor candidate Ali France (Photo by Getty Images)

There's plenty of value to be found for savvy political punters in the upcoming 2025 Australian Federal Election - read on below as our experts provide their three best bets at long odds.

As the 2025 Australian Federal Election approaches on May 3, the political landscape is charged with anticipation. Betting markets are available at various Australian bookmaker sites, offering opportunities for astute punters to capitalise on potential outcomes. This comprehensive guide delves into key seats, analysing odds and providing value tips for each.

Gilmore (NSW)

Betting Tip: Fiona Phillips (Labor) @ $2.75 with Betr

Gilmore Seat Winner (NSW)Labor (Fiona Phillips)$2.75 - BET HERE

18+. T&Cs apply

Reasoning

Incumbency Advantage: Phillips has held Gilmore since 2019, giving her a track record of delivering local projects and initiatives. Her incumbency provides name recognition and a base of loyal voters.

Ballot Position: Phillips secured the top spot in the ballot draw, which historically benefits candidates by increasing their visibility among undecided voters.

Preference Dynamics: In 2022, Phillips overcame a significant first-preference vote deficit (6,700 fewer votes than Andrew Constance) through strong preference flows from Greens and other minor parties. Similar dynamics could play out in 2025, especially with the presence of independent Kate Dezarnaulds and Greens candidate Debbie Killian.

Local Achievements: Phillips has emphasised her work on cost-of-living relief, infrastructure improvements, and healthcare initiatives, such as establishing a headspace facility in Kiama and securing funding for telecommunications upgrades under the STAND program. These achievements resonate with constituents.

Labor's Broader Campaign Focus: Labor’s federal budget announcements, including cost-of-living measures and infrastructure spending, may bolster Phillips’ appeal in Gilmore, where these issues are critical.

Community Sentiment: Some community members view Andrew Constance as a less appealing candidate due to perceptions of arrogance or his repeated attempts to enter federal politics. This sentiment could benefit Phillips if voters prefer continuity or are wary of Constance’s motives.

Chisholm (VIC)

Betting Tip: Mary Doyle (Labor) @ $3.10 with Ladbrokes

Chisholm Seat Winner (VIC)Labor (Mary Doyle)$3.10 - BET HERE

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Reasoning

Incumbency Advantage: As the sitting MP for Chisholm, Doyle has had time to establish herself locally and build a personal vote. Incumbency often provides an edge, especially if the MP has been visible and active in addressing local issues.

Sophomore Swing Potential: First-term MPs often benefit from a "sophomore swing," as voters who may have been hesitant initially are more inclined to support a candidate they now recognise and trust. This could help offset any broader anti-Labor swing in Victoria.

Labor's Ground Game: Reports indicate that Labor has been campaigning aggressively in key Victorian seats, including Chisholm, with door-knocking efforts and high-profile visits from senior Labor figures. This contrasts with the Liberal campaign, which has been described as less visible.

Redistribution Impact: While the redistribution reduced Labor's margin from 6.4% to 3.2%, it also brought in areas where Labor performed well in 2022. This could help mitigate losses if there is a statewide swing against Labor.

Liberal Candidate Weaknesses: The Liberal Party's candidate (Katie Allen) for Chisholm has struggled with visibility, which could hinder their ability to capitalise on dissatisfaction with the federal government.

Changing Demographics: Chisholm includes diverse communities in Melbourne's eastern suburbs, where progressive issues like healthcare, education, and cost-of-living relief resonate strongly. These factors could favor Doyle if she effectively connects with these voters.

Union Support: As a former union leader, Doyle has strong backing from unions, which can provide additional campaign resources and grassroots mobilisation.

Dickson (QLD)

Betting Tip: Ali France (Labor) @ $4.50 with Neds

Dickson Seat Winner (QLD)Labor (Ali France)$4.50 - BET HERE

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Reasoning

Marginal Nature of Dickson: Dickson is Queensland's most marginal seat, held by Peter Dutton with a razor-thin margin of 1.7% following the 2022 election. Dutton won by just 3,363 votes, making the seat highly competitive and susceptible to small swings.

Labor's Focused Campaign: Labor has poured significant resources into Dickson, including an additional $130,000 for campaigning efforts. Internal research suggests the electorate is "closer than originally thought," with thousands of voters reportedly undecided. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has personally campaigned in Dickson, signalling its importance to Labor’s strategy in Queensland.

Ali France's Personal Appeal: France is a three-time candidate with strong local connections and a compelling personal story as a para-athlete and advocate for disability rights. Her platform focuses on cost-of-living relief, healthcare improvements, and better infrastructure, which resonate with working-class and middle-class voters in Dickson. Her door-knocking efforts and grassroots campaigning have been well-received, contrasting with Dutton’s reliance on billboards and flyers.

Polling Trends: Recent YouGov polling shows Labor leading in Dickson with 52.5% of the two-party-preferred vote compared to the Coalition's 47.5%. This suggests momentum may be shifting toward France.

Dutton's Vulnerabilities: Dutton’s decision to leave his electorate during Cyclone Alfred for a Sydney fundraiser has drawn criticism, with voters expressing concerns about his focus on Canberra politics rather than local issues. His proposed cuts to fund nuclear schemes and past stances on work-from-home policies have alienated some voters.

Preference Dynamics: Independent Ellie Smith (backed by Climate 200) and Greens candidate Vinnie Batten could siphon votes from Dutton’s primary base, with preferences likely flowing to Labor. This could amplify France’s chances in such a tight contest.

Verdict

2025 Australian Federal Election

Our three value betting tips for Labor in key seats for the upcoming 2025 Australian Federal Election include Fiona Phillips in Gilmore (NSW), Mary Doyle in Chisholm (VIC) and Ali France in Dickson (QLD).

Labor (Fiona Phillips)

Gilmore Seat Winner (NSW)

$2.75 - 1 Unit

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Labor (Mary Doyle)

Chisholm Seat Winner (VIC)

$3.10 - 1 Unit

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Labor (Ali France)

Dickson Seat Winner (QLD)

$4.50 - 1 Unit

Take it to the Neds Level