Greens and Independents - The Wildcard Markets in Election 2025

Bets.com.au Staff

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Last updated: Fri 02 May 2025 05:19

Bets.com.au Staff 02 May 2025

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Expert tips for 2025 Australian Federal Election
Value in backing Greens (Stephen Bates) for Brisbane seat
Monique Ryan also tipped to retain Kooyong seat

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The Greens' candidate for the seat of Brisbane Stephen Bates (Photo by Getty Images)

One of the most exciting angles for savvy punters in the 2025 Australian Federal election is the performance of the crossbench – namely the Greens and the teal independents (and other minor players).

In 2022, Australian politics saw a seismic shift: a record number of independents won seats (largely in formerly safe Coalition electorates) and the Australian Greens tripled their lower house seats from 1 to 4.

These “wildcards” hold the balance of power and their fate will heavily influence whether the next government is majority or minority. Australian bookmaker sites have started to roll out betting odds involving Greens and Independents.

Australian Federal Election 2025Bet on Politics with UnibetBET HERE

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For a betting-savvy observer, understanding the undercurrents of the Greens and independent campaigns can unearth value bets that traditional two-party markets overlook.

Teal Independents vs The Coalition

The so-called “teal independents” – mostly socially progressive, economically centrist community-backed candidates – won a swathe of wealthy urban seats in 2022 (e.g. Kooyong, North Sydney, Wentworth, Goldstein, Curtin). These were historic upsets against the Liberal Party. In 2025, the big question is: Can the Liberals reclaim those seats, or will the independents entrench themselves? Bettors are closely watching races like:

Kooyong (VIC): held by independent Monique Ryan (who defeated former Treasurer Josh Frydenberg). This time Liberals are running a new candidate, but bookies have Ryan as the favourite. (Unibet currently have the best odds at $2.10). Despite some campaign hiccups (a minor signs scandal involving Ryan’s husband), punters seem to believe Kooyong’s small liberal voters will stick with the independent who ousted Frydenberg.

Goldstein (VIC): another Melbourne seat, where independent Zoe Daniel beat a Liberal in 2022. The Liberals are certainly eyeing this for a comeback. Ladbrokes Australia have the Coalition at odds of $2.20, with Daniel a $1.60 favourite to retain her seat. Watch for any local polling; a small swing could flip this.

One specific seat to highlight from a betting perspective is Bradfield (NSW). It wasn’t won by a Teal in 2022, but an independent came close, and the Liberal MP retired. Now Bradfield (a wealthy North Shore Sydney seat) is essentially a Liberal vs Teal contest. Bookmakers have this as even odds: Liberal around $1.80 vs Independent $1.90 – essentially a toss-up. That reflects how credible independents have become in areas that never previously entertained non-major candidates. If you have insight into Bradfield (say, on-ground sentiment or candidate quality), you could find an edge here. For instance, independent Nicolette Boele has been campaigning for years and nearly won last time; the Liberals have a new candidate. This seat epitomises the “wildcard” nature – it’s “impossibly hard to call.

The Greens’ Ambitions

The Australian Greens had a “greenslide” in Brisbane in 2022, picking up three Queensland seats (Brisbane, Ryan, Griffith) and holding their longtime Melbourne seat. They now go into 2025 aiming to defend those and possibly snag a couple more. Key points for punters regarding Greens:

Defending Brisbane, Ryan, Griffith (QLD): These were extraordinary wins in urban Brisbane. As discussed earlier, Brisbane is a true three-way marginal with the Greens at $3.50 odds but with a real shot.

Ryan and Griffith might actually be tougher for the majors to reclaim – in Ryan, Greens MP Elizabeth Watson-Brown has a 2.6% margin over the LNP and in Griffith, Max Chandler-Mather has a larger 10% margin over the LNP (though that was against a split field and Labor could pose a threat if they become the main opponent).

Targeting new seats: The Greens have their eyes on a few inner-city seats elsewhere. Wills (VIC) is one – it’s Melbourne’s northern suburbs, held by Labor’s Peter Khalil. The Greens have a high-profile candidate (former state MP Samantha Ratnam) and the seat’s margin is around 4-9% depending on measure. Labor is still favoured, but a strong Greens swing could make it interesting. Macnamara (VIC) is another fascinating three-way contest (Labor vs Liberal vs Greens in inner Melbourne). In 2022, the Greens came very close – less than 3% separated primary votes of the top three, and preferences ultimately delivered it to Labor.

The Greens candidate, Sonya Semmens, is running again. If Labor’s primary vote drops even slightly there, the Greens could leapfrog into Parliament. Odds for Macnamara might show Labor ahead, but Greens could be around $3-$4 as a dark horse. That might be a value flutter if one believes in another “Green wave” in Melbourne.

Betting Tip: Green Light for Greens (Brisbane)

One standout value bet in the crossbench realm is Greens (Stephen Bates) to win Brisbane at $3.25 with online bookmaker Neds.

Election: Brisbane Seat WinnerGreens$3.25 - bet here

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As analysed, the Greens incumbent has a viable path to victory thanks to preference flows, even if the LNP tops the primary vote. The odds of 3.5 (about a 28% implied chance) may underestimate the Greens’ advantage of incumbency and grassroots machine in that seat. It’s a riskier bet, but with a nice payout for a scenario that is far from unlikely. Additionally, backing Monique Ryan to hold Kooyong at $2.10 with Unibet is a solid pick for those who want a safer bet on an independent.

Ryan has proven popular and the Liberal brand took a hit there last time; $2.10 on her may actually be value given the Liberals’ challenges in that community. For a broader approach, consider a speculative bet like “Greens to win at least 5 seats” if your book offers it. That would mean they net one extra seat.

In conclusion, the Greens and independent candidates are where surprises happen – and where betting odds can be juicy. They are the wildcards that could defy the swing in either direction. As a betting-savvy reader, keep your ear to the ground on local campaigns for these non-major contenders. Often, smaller sample seat polls or community sentiment (via forums or social media) might give you a clue before the odds shift. In 2022, those who bet early on teal independents at long odds reaped significant rewards. For 2025, the odds aren’t as long (bookies have wised up), but there’s still plenty of opportunity to find mispriced underdogs among the crossbench.

Verdict

2025 Australian Federal Election

Greens to retain Brisbane at $3.25 as an underdog is worth backing, along with any Teal independent who is even money or better to win (we particularly like Monique Ryan in Kooyong).

These bets capture the theme that 2025 won’t just be Red vs Blue – the “Green and Teal” army will have a big say in Australia’s political future - and in your betting slips too!