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Geelong Cats vs GWS Giants AFL Tips - Giants to cover in low scoring game

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Thu 08 May 2025 10:48

Ryan Tucker 08 May 2025

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Geelong Cats vs GWS Giants expert predictions for Sunday’s Round 9 AFL game
The game will be played at GMHBA Stadium, with the bounce at 3:20 PM (AEST)
Geelong Cats face injury challenges, affecting their defense.
GWS Giants are favored as underdogs due to past close margins.
Expect a low-scoring game as both teams manage form struggles.

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Best picks for Sunday's Geelong Cats vs GWS Giants

Geelong Cats vs GWS Giants, Round 9 2025 - Expert Prediction

A tough game to handicap with the Cats having one of the longer injury lists in the league and GWS struggling for form. Given 3 of the last 6 games between these clubs have finished with a 7 pt or less margin the top pick is GWS to cover as Underdogs on the road.

Geelong Cats vs GWS Giants, Round 9 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Geelong Cats Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Geelong Cats Team News
Geelong Cats Team List
GWS Giants Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
GWS Giants Team News
GWS Giants Team List
Geelong Cats vs GWS Giants AFL 2025 Round 9 FAQ’s

Interestingly the Underdogs are winning (28%) and covering (47%) at a lower rate this season compared to the numbers since the beginning of 2019 where Dogs have been winning 32% of the time and covering 52% of the time. My expectation is that these numbers will need to revert back to the average this season and this is a good spot for it to happen.

While Geelong have been strong at home, the injuries in their backline could spell disaster as they will need to pull troops from other parts of the field to remain competitive. This could give GWS an advantage through their half-back line where they like to start their attacking raids using quick handballs and running.

With the relative slump in form and Geelong likely to be playing a bit of musical chairs, my tip is that the Game Total will remain low with GWS covering as the Underdog. Lachie Whitfield was kept quiet last game and will bounce back here.

The Game Total has gone Under in 3 straight games between these teams.
In the 3 games where Jake Stringer has scored a goal, 2 of those have been 2+ goals.
Lachie Whitfield has had 30 disposals in 3 of his last 5 vs Geelong.
Lachie Whitfield has had 30+ touches in 5 of 8 games this season.

Head to Head

These two teams have played in 6 regular season matchups and 1 finals matchup since the beginning of the 2019 season. GWS have a 5-1 record in the regular season while Geelong were able to take the finals game in 2021 by a margin.

The Under has hit in 3 straight and 4 of 6 regular season outings while the Win Margin has routinely stayed between 1-39 with only 1 of the 6 going 40+.

Each team has covered the line when winning straight up.

Geelong Cats Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
4-1	4-1	2-3

The Cats took an important 90-87 win over the league leading Collingwood Magpies at the weekend which sees them keep in touch with the top 4, only 1 in behind.

It was the 4th victory in 5 games for Geelong who have played 3 straight games at the MCG, a ground where they have a successful record over the past couple of seasons. Patrick Dangerfield and Bailey Smith helped drag back from a 20 pt deficit during the 3rd term to just 7 points at the last break.

Defence has been troubling for the Cats this season and despite being without Tom Stewart and some musical chairs in the backline they were able to do enough to cause the Pies to miss and ultimately leave the game on the table for Geelong to steal late.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
6-2	4-4	4-3	1-0

Geelong Cats Team News

The Cats injury list as grown again with Rhys Stanley out with a hammy and Lawson Humphries going through concussion protocols. Tom Stewart will need to pass a fitness test to play while Jake Kolodjashnij could be included for his first game of AFL for 2025.

Geelong Cats Team List

B: Z.Guthrie, S.De Koning, M.Duncan

HB: O.Mullin, C.O’Sullivan, M.O’Connor

C: J.Bowes, M.Holmes, O.Dempsey

HF: B.Close, S.Mannagh, G.Miers

F: J.Cameron, P.Dangerfield - C, S.Neale

FOLL: M.Blicavs, B.Smith, T.Atkins

I/C (FROM): O.Wiltshire, J.Clark, O.Henry, T.Stengle, T.Clohesy, G.Stevens, J.Bews, J.Polkinghorne

In: - G.Miers, T.Clohesy, G.Stevens, J.Bews, J.Polkinghorne

Out: - L.Humphries (Injured), R.Stanley (Injured)

GWS Giants Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
2-3	2-3	3-2

The Giants have hit a snag in their form this season now having lost 3 on the trot after starting 4-1. It mirrors their start to last season where they won 6 of their first 7 before losing three straight and then a further 3 of their next 5.

The team failed to make any significant inroads in the derby against the Swans last weekend, eventually going down by 14 points but the Giants never led in the game. They allowed their opponent to get out to an early lead by giving away free kicks in scoring position with poor discipline the main factor.

Despite being in a rut, they are still one of the best teams to use the ball by hand over the last 5 games but they aren’t getting Inside 50 enough which is limiting their scoring opportunities. They rank 9th in the league in Goals per Inside 50.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
3-5	3-5	2-4	2-0

GWS Giants Team News

There are 4 players on the Giants injury list that are expected to undergo fitness tests this week in an effort to rejoin the playing ranks. Toby Bedford, Kieren Briggs, Ollie Hannaford and Jake Riccardi will all be monitored and could be included when teams are released on Thursday.

Logan Smith and Stephen Coniglio are both another week away.

GWS Giants Team List

B: C.Idun, S.Taylor, H.Himmelberg

HB: L.Whitfield, J.Buckley, L.Ash

C: C.Ward, F.Callaghan, J.Wehr

HF: X.O’Halloran, A.Cadman, J.Stringer

F: H.Thomas, J.Hogan, T.Greene - C

FOLL: K.Briggs, T.Bedford, T.Green

I/C (FROM): C.Brown, T.McMullin, J.Fonti, J.Riccardi, J.Delana, H.Rowston, C.Angove, R.Angwin

In: - J.Riccardi, H.Rowston, C.Angove, R.Angwin

Out: - D.Jones (Injured)

Geelong Cats vs GWS Giants AFL 2025 Round 9 FAQ’s

How to watch Geelong Cats vs GWS Giants AFL 2025 Round 9?

You can watch the Geelong Cats vs GWS Giants AFL 2025 Round 9 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Geelong Cats vs GWS Giants AFL 2025 Round 9?

To buy tickets to the Geelong Cats vs GWS Giants AFL 2025 Round 9 game check the AFL website or the official Geelong Cats site.

Verdict

Geelong v Greater Western Sydney

GWS +16.5

Line

$1.90 - 2 Units

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