Jesse's AFL Round 22 Tips 2026: Predictions & Margins for Every Match

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Tue 04 Aug 2026 12:43

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Jesse tips & predicts margins for all AFL Round 22 games.
Crucial matches impact finals spots and wildcard race.
Predictions include close contests and some big wins.

Jesse's margins for every match of AFL Round 22.

Jesse's AFL Round 22 Tips 2026: Predictions & Margins for Every Match

The race to September is entering its final stretch, and Round 22 could have a massive impact on both the top four and the battle for the final wildcard spot.

Jesse's AFL Round 22 Tips 2026: Predictions & Margins for Every Match
Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne Prediction
Brisbane vs Hawthorn Prediction
Melbourne vs Fremantle Prediction
Sydney vs Port Adelaide Prediction
Geelong vs Essendon Prediction
Adelaide vs Richmond Prediction
GWS Giants vs Gold Coast Prediction
West Coast vs Collingwood Prediction
Carlton vs St Kilda Prediction

Brisbane faces a must-win clash to keep its top-four hopes alive, Hawthorn can continue its push for second place, while Carlton and St Kilda meet in what is effectively an elimination final for tenth spot. With just a few rounds remaining, every result matters.

Here are Jesse's tips and predicted margins for every AFL Round 22 game.

Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne Prediction

North Melbourne continues to show encouraging improvement despite falling short against quality opposition.

The Kangaroos pushed Hawthorn all the way in Tasmania and have become a far tougher side to play than they were 12 months ago. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, continue to win without being particularly spectacular, with Marcus Bontempelli leading a side that simply finds ways to bank four points.

Expect a competitive contest, but the Bulldogs should edge clear late.

Jesse's Tip: Western Bulldogs by 12 points

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Brisbane vs Hawthorn Prediction

This is arguably the biggest game of the round.

Brisbane has no margin for error after slipping outside the top four, while Hawthorn can strengthen its hold on a double chance with another statement victory. Lachie Neale and Will Ashcroft will need to respond after last week's disappointment, while Jai Newcombe and Dylan Moore continue to drive one of the AFL's most balanced sides.

At the Gabba, Jesse is backing the home side to keep its top-four hopes alive.

Jesse's Tip: Brisbane Lions by 8 points

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Melbourne vs Fremantle Prediction

Saturday's True Footy live stream features one of the most anticipated games of the season.

Melbourne has been outstanding at the MCG despite last week's road win over Gold Coast, while Fremantle continues to set the benchmark with an 18-2 record. Caleb Serong, Luke Jackson and Shai Bolton have consistently delivered, while Max Gawn and Kozzy Pickett give Melbourne every chance on their home deck.

Expect a genuine finals-style contest, but the Dockers look ready for another statement win.

Jesse's Tip: Fremantle by 17 points

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Sydney vs Port Adelaide Prediction

Port Adelaide has earned plenty of respect for remaining competitive despite the long-term absence of Zak Butters.

The Power pushed Sydney hard earlier this season at Adelaide Oval, but the Swans remain one of the competition's elite teams. Chad Warner, Isaac Heeney and Errol Gulden continue to find another gear late in games, and that's likely to prove the difference once again.

Sydney should finish stronger.

Jesse's Tip: Sydney Swans by 27 points

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Geelong vs Essendon Prediction

Geelong continues to defy expectations despite a growing injury list.

The Cats have rediscovered their best football at exactly the right time, while Essendon remains one of the youngest and least experienced sides in the competition. Bailey Smith and Shaun Mannagh continue to drive Geelong's resurgence, and GMHBA Stadium remains one of the toughest road trips in football.

This could get out of hand.

Jesse's Tip: Geelong by 82 points

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Adelaide vs Richmond Prediction

Adelaide knows percentage could prove crucial in the race for the top four.

The Crows responded brilliantly last week and now face a Richmond side that traditionally struggles at Adelaide Oval. Jordan Dawson continues to lead the midfield, while Riley Thilthorpe gives Adelaide a dangerous focal point inside 50.

Everything points towards a convincing home victory.

Jesse's Tip: Adelaide Crows by 83 points

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GWS Giants vs Gold Coast Prediction

The Giants remain one of the AFL's most unpredictable teams.

GWS kept its finals hopes alive with a win over Port Adelaide, but consistency continues to elude the club. Gold Coast has now dropped ten straight games, although Christian Petracca and Matt Rowell helped produce a much-improved performance against Melbourne.

Jesse is backing the upset of the round.

Jesse's Tip: Gold Coast Suns by 8 points

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West Coast vs Collingwood Prediction

West Coast returns home looking to respond after a disappointing defeat to Richmond.

The Eagles have shown they can compete for patches against quality opposition, but Collingwood continues to build momentum at exactly the right time of the season. Nick Daicos has again led the Magpies, whose contested football has improved significantly over the past month.

Collingwood should have too much class.

Jesse's Tip: Collingwood by 23 points

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Carlton vs St Kilda Prediction

This is effectively an elimination final in the race for tenth spot.

St Kilda has challenged several top sides over the past month without quite getting over the line, while Carlton produced one of the wins of the season by dismantling Brisbane. Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh have rediscovered their best football, and the Blues' improved team defence has transformed their season.

Carlton looks the better side right now.

Jesse's Tip: Carlton by 11 points