St Kilda vs Carlton AFL Round 22 Tips - Blues fairytale run to continue with wildcard win
Carlton enters AFL Round 22, 2026, on a hot streak after a dominant victory over Brisbane and has become a finals contender under coach Josh Fraser. The Blues are displaying explosive attacking football, with multiple scoring threats and consistent midfield performances, particularly from Jagga Smith and Ollie Florent. St Kilda remains competitive but struggles to sustain pressure against top teams. While the Saints can challenge at Marvel Stadium, Carlton’s depth and confidence make them favorites, with experts recommending Carlton in the head-to-head, and both Florent and Smith for 25+ disposals.
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Carlton vs Brisbane, Round 22 2026 - Expert Prediction
- Carlton vs Brisbane, Round 22 2026 - Expert Prediction
- Head to Head Stats
- St Kilda Form Analysis
- St Kilda Team News
- Carlton Form Analysis
- Carlton Team News
- St Kilda vs Carlton AFL 2026 Round 22 FAQ's
Carlton can continue its remarkable resurgence with another crucial victory.
Carlton heads into Round 22 brimming with confidence after dismantling reigning premiers Brisbane by 76 points, while St Kilda's wildcard hopes took a major hit after surrendering a 23-point lead against Sydney.
The Blues have now won nine of their past 11 matches under Josh Fraser and suddenly find themselves right in the finals conversation, whereas the Saints are again left searching for consistency after another competitive performance against a top side ended in disappointment. Expect St Kilda to challenge early, but Carlton's confidence and attacking firepower should prove decisive.
The midfield battle shapes as one of the highlights of the afternoon. Jagga Smith produced another outstanding display against Brisbane while George Hewett and Sam Walsh dominated around stoppages.
St Kilda's midfield has been equally competitive in recent weeks, led by Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, Riley Garcia and Bradley Hill. Wanganeen-Milera again demonstrated his versatility with three goals against Sydney before spending time through the midfield, but Carlton's on-ball brigade is playing with enormous belief and should generate enough forward-half opportunities.
Ball movement has become Carlton's greatest weapon under Josh Fraser. The Blues had 16 individual goalkickers against Brisbane and repeatedly opened the game up through precise ball use and overlap run. Unlike earlier in the season, the Blues now have the consistency of polished ball movement and ability to execute its game plan across four quarters.
St Kilda is more than capable of making this a genuine contest, particularly at Marvel Stadium, where its pressure game has troubled several finals contenders this season. Cooper Sharman, Anthony Caminiti and Mitch Owens provide dangerous aerial targets, while Wanganeen-Milera remains capable of changing a match almost single-handedly.
However, Carlton suddenly boasts scoring threats all over the ground, with Harry McKay, Brodie Kemp, Will Hayward, Ben Ainsworth and Ollie Florent all contributing regularly. The Blues look to have too many avenues to goal and can edge another important victory.
Take Carlton in the head-to-head, Ollie Florent for 25+ disposals and Jagga Smith for 25+ disposals.
- Carlton have won nine of 11 matches under Josh Fraser and come off a 76-point victory over Brisbane.
- Ollie Florent has had 25+ disposals in his past two matches and had 30 against St Kilda earlier this season.
- Jagga Smith has had 25+ disposals in his past three matches.
- Carlton are averaging 127 points per game in their past three matches at Marvel Stadium.
Head to Head Stats
The two sides met as recently as Round 8 this season, with St Kilda recording a 39-point victory. Carlton and St Kilda have alternated wins across their past four meetings, while each of the past 10 clashes has been decided in the 1-39 point margin.
Standout player performances in recent meetings
- Nic Newman (Blues): Averaging 31.5 disposals across his past four matches against St Kilda.
- Ollie Florent (Blues): 30 disposals in the most recent meeting.
- Ben Ainsworth (Blues): Two goals in each of his past two matches against the Saints.
- Cooper Sharman (Saints): Two goals in each of his past two matches against Carlton.
St Kilda Form Analysis
St Kilda produced three outstanding quarters against Sydney before fading late, conceding nine of the final 11 goals in a 19-point defeat. The Saints controlled much of the contest through stoppages and contested possession before Sydney's class shone through in the final term. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera was again brilliant with 24 disposals and three goals.
Despite the loss, the Saints have shown they can match it with quality opposition for long periods, with their defensive structure and pressure remaining significant strengths.
Marvel Stadium continues to suit St Kilda's contested style, but converting competitive performances into victories has proven difficult and they are yet to register a victory agains opposition ranked higher than them on the ladder. If the Saints are to upset the in-form Blues, they will need to sustain their pressure for all four quarters rather than the three that almost brought down Sydney.
St Kilda Team News
St Kilda will closely monitor the fitness of Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (hip), Jack Silvagni (shoulder) and Tom De Koning (hip) after all three battled injury concerns against Sydney.
Carlton Form Analysis
Carlton enters Round 22 with enormous momentum after producing arguably the performance of the season in its 76-point demolition of Brisbane. The Blues kicked 24 goals, had 16 individual goalkickers and completely outworked the reigning premiers across four quarters. Jagga Smith starred with 28 disposals, two goals and 12 score involvements, George Hewett collected 33 disposals, while Brodie Kemp and Harry McKay combined for eight goals.
The Blues have now won nine of their past 11 matches under Josh Fraser and have transformed into one of the competition's most dangerous attacking sides. Their past three matches at Marvel Stadium have yielded an average of 127 points, with improved ball movement and forward-half pressure underpinning the dramatic turnaround.
Carlton's midfield is now generating consistent supply, while its forward line has seen the emergence of multiple scoring options, including Brodie Kemp, who comes off a five-goal haul. That balance makes the Blues a far more difficult side to defend than earlier in the season.
Carlton Team News
Jacob Weitering is a chance to return for the Sunday night match, while Ashton Moir is another in the frame. Nic Newman is unlikely to return this season. Zac Williams and Lachie Fogarty are knocking on the door for selection after producing big numbers in the VFL last weekend.
St Kilda vs Carlton AFL 2026 Round 22 FAQ's
- How to watch St Kilda vs Carlton AFL 2026 Round 22?
You can watch the St Kilda vs Carlton AFL 2026 Round 22 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.
- How to buy tickets to St Kilda vs Carlton AFL 2026 Round 22?
To buy tickets to the St Kilda vs Carlton AFL 2026 Round 22 game check the AFL website or the official St Kilda site.
Verdict
Take Carlton in the head-to-head, Ollie Florent for 25+ disposals and Jagga Smith for 25+ disposals.
Carlton
Win
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