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Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL Round 22 Tips - Lions to respond in Gabba shootout

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Thu. 06 Aug. 2026 14:52

Jeremy Darke 06 Aug. 2026

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Brisbane tipped to win by 1-39 points in high-scoring clash.
Experts predict total points to exceed 187.5.
Kai Lohmann & Mabior Chol expected to kick 2+ goals each.
The game will be played at the Gabba on Friday, 7th August, with the bounce at 7:40 PM (AEST).

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Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL Round 22 Tips

Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL Round 22 Expert Tips

Brisbane can respond to last week’s reality check and edge Hawthorn in a high-scoring Gabba contest between two of the AFL’s most dangerous attacking teams.

Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL Round 22 Expert Tips
Key Points
Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks Head-to-Head
Brisbane Lions Form
Hawthorn Hawks Form
Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks Team List & Team News
Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Round 22 FAQs

The Lions enter this match after a shocking 76-point defeat to Carlton ended their seven-game winning streak. That performance exposed Brisbane’s undermanned defence, but the return to the Gabba provides an immediate opportunity to reset. The Lions have won six of their past eight matches at the venue and both home meetings with Hawthorn since 2019.

Brisbane 1-39 is preferred over the traditional head-to-head or line markets. Hawthorn has lost only five times this season, with every defeat coming by fewer than 40 points. Even if Brisbane produces the expected response, the Hawks are playing too well to be dismissed easily.

The Over 187.5 is the strongest statistical angle. Brisbane is averaging 106.0 points per game in 2026, while Hawthorn is scoring 100.2. The FootyBets.com.au model projects an even higher total of 213.3 points, with an estimated 81.8 per cent probability of the match clearing the listed total.

Kai Lohmann remains Brisbane’s most appealing player market. The small forward has kicked at least two goals in six consecutive matches, producing 19 goals during that stretch.

Mabior Chol has kicked two goals in each of his past two appearances and has recorded multiple goals in four of his past six games against Brisbane.

Key Points

Brisbane has won six of its past eight matches at the Gabba.
Hawthorn’s five defeats this season have all been by 1-39 points.
Brisbane and Hawthorn average more than 206 combined points per game.
Kai Lohmann has kicked 2+ goals in six consecutive matches.
Mabior Chol has kicked multiple goals in four of his past six games against Brisbane.

Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks Head-to-Head

Hawthorn holds a 35-22 advantage across the 57 meetings between these clubs, while the teams have split their past 10 encounters with five wins each.

Brisbane has won the past two meetings, defeating Hawthorn by 33 points in Round 11 last season before recording a 10-point victory at the Gabba in Round 24.

Brisbane Lions Form

Brisbane enters Round 22 fifth on the ladder with a 13-7 record after its seven-game winning streak ended in spectacular fashion against Carlton.

The Lions conceded 24 goals and 154 points in the 76-point defeat, their heaviest loss of the season. Carlton controlled the match after quarter-time and exposed Brisbane’s depleted key defensive stocks, with Eric Hipwood forced to play in an unfamiliar role behind the ball.

Despite the defeat, Brisbane’s previous form cannot be ignored. The Lions had averaged 121.2 points across the five matches leading into the Carlton game and produced victories by 59, 24, 90, 22 and 43 points during their seven-game winning run.

The Lions have averaged approximately 115 points per home match this season.

Hawthorn Hawks Form

Hawthorn sits third with a 14-1-5 record after winning four consecutive matches. The Hawks have averaged 109.2 points and conceded only 67.6 across their past five games, producing an average margin of 41.6 points.

Their 16-point victory over North Melbourne was more difficult than expected. Hawthorn trailed by one point at three-quarter time before lifting in the final term to secure a 99-83 win.

Nick Watson was the difference with five goals, taking his season tally to 52 and moving within reach of the Coleman Medal lead. Jai Newcombe was dominant around the contest with 34 disposals and 12 clearances, while Jarman Impey and Mabior Chol also played influential roles.

Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks Team List & Team News

Brisbane Lions

Keidean Coleman and Hugh McCluggage miss through injury, while Bruce Reville has been omitted. Darcy Gardiner, Dayne Zorko and Darcy Annable come into the side.

Hawthorn Hawks

Karl Amon, Sam Butler, Mitch Lewis and Ned Reeves return. Aidan Schubert, Finn Maginness and Ollie Greeves have been omitted, while Bodie Macdonald has been managed.

Brisbane Lions	POS	Hawthorn
N. Answerth, H. Andrews, R. Lester	B	J. Sicily, T. Barrass, B. Hardwick
D. Wilmot, D. Gardiner, D. Zorko	HB	J. Impey, J. Weddle, J. Battle
J. Berry, W. Ashcroft, Z. Bailey	C	C. Macdonald, W. Day, K. Amon
C. Cameron, L. Morris, O. Allen	HF	D. Moore, M. Chol, S. Butler
E. Hipwood, C. Rayner, K. Lohmann	F	N. Watson, M. Lewis, J. Gunston
D. Fort, J. Dunkley, L. Neale	FOLL	L. Meek, J. Newcombe, C. Mackenzie
S. Draper, J. Fletcher, L. Ashcroft, D. Annable, C. McKenna	I/C	H. Morrison, J. Ginnivan, N. Reeves, J. Ward, M. D’Ambrosio

Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Round 22 FAQs

How can I watch Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Round 22?
You can watch the Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Round 22 game via Fox Footy or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside Australia, the Watch AFL service is the best option for live and on-demand coverage.
How can I buy tickets for Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Round 22?
To buy tickets for the Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2026 Round 22 game, check the official AFL website or the official Brisbane Lions website.

Verdict

Brisbane Lions v Hawthorn Hawks

Both Mabior Chol and Kai Lohman will kick at least two goals as the game total exceeds 187.5 points. Brisbane will respond with a 1-39 victory over Hawthorn

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