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Geelong Cats vs Essendon Bombers AFL Round 22 Tips - Cats to pile on the points

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Thu. 06 Aug. 2026 14:54

Jeremy Darke 06 Aug. 2026

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Geelong tipped to win big, covering -64.5 margin & scoring 122.5+ points.
Neale & Henry projected for 3+ goals each.
Essendon struggling with recent heavy losses and injuries.
The game will be played at GMHBA Stadium on Saturday, 8th August, with the bounce at 4:35 PM (AEST).

Geelong Cats vs Essendon Bombers AFL Round 22 Tips

Geelong Cats vs Essendon Bombers AFL Round 22 Expert Tips

Geelong can continue its late-season surge with another commanding win over an Essendon side that has struggled to remain competitive against the AFL’s leading teams.

The Cats have won three consecutive matches against St Kilda, Melbourne and Collingwood, reviving their top-four hopes ahead of a favourable run home. Essendon, meanwhile, has lost four of its past five games and each of those four defeats has come by at least 67 points.

Geelong -64.5 is a significant line, but the recent numbers support another one-sided result. The FootyBets.com.au model projects the Cats to win by 70.1 points, while Geelong has won its past five meetings with Essendon by an average margin of 57.8 points.

Geelong Over 122.5 points an appealing team-total selection. The Cats are projected to score 128.7 points by the primary model, while Essendon have conceded at least 117 points in each of their last 4 losses.

Oliver Henry is building strong form in the absence of Jeremy Cameron. The former Magpie has kicked seven goals across his past two matches, including three against Collingwood and four against Melbourne.

Shannon Neale is the other key forward option. He has also kicked seven goals across his past two appearances, following a five-goal performance against Melbourne with two majors against Collingwood. Neale has previously enjoyed this matchup, kicking three or more goals in three of his past four games against Essendon.

Key Points

Essendon’s past four defeats have been by at least 67 points.
Geelong has won its past five meetings with Essendon by an average of 57.8 points.
Essendon’s opponents have scored at least 132 points in its past three losses.
Oliver Henry has kicked seven goals across his past two matches.
Shannon Neale has kicked seven goals across his past two matches.

Geelong Cats vs Essendon Bombers Head-to-Head

The Cats have won nine of the past 10 encounters, including five consecutive victories by margins of 44, 95, 45, 77 and 28 points.

Geelong defeated Essendon twice in 2025, recording a 95-point victory in Round 14 before winning by 44 points at GMHBA Stadium in Round 22. The Cats have scored at least 105 points in each of the past five premiership-season meetings.

Geelong Cats Form

Geelong enters Round 22 seventh on the ladder with a 12-8 record after winning three consecutive matches.

The Cats began their resurgence with a 27-point home victory over St Kilda before ending Melbourne’s unbeaten MCG record with a 20-point win. They then produced another strong performance at the venue to defeat Collingwood by 25 points.

Geelong set up the victory against the Magpies with five goals to one in the opening quarter. The Cats responded when Collingwood threatened after half-time and finished strongly to secure a 15.7 (97) to 10.12 (72) result.

Ollie Dempsey was outstanding with 29 disposals, 10 marks and two goals, while Bailey Smith collected 28 touches. Tom Stewart controlled the defensive half and Oliver Henry and Jay Polkinghorne kicked three goals each.

Essendon Bombers Form

Essendon sits at the bottom of the ladder with a 2-18 record after losing four of its past five matches.

The Bombers briefly interrupted their losing run with a three-point upset over GWS, but that result has been surrounded by defeats of 90, 67, 93 and 72 points.

Essendon showed some early resistance against Adelaide last week, kicking the opening two goals and applying strong pressure around the contest. The Crows responded with the final five goals of the first quarter and gradually pulled away to record a 145-73 victory.

Essendon has averaged only 57.6 points while conceding 121.4 across its past five games. Its defensive group now faces another enormous workload against a Geelong team averaging almost 59 inside 50s per match.

Geelong Cats vs Essendon Bombers Team List & Team News

Geelong Cats

Sam De Koning returns in Geelong’s only change, replacing managed ruckman Mitch Edwards.

Essendon Bombers

Jye Caldwell, Vigo Visentini and Archie Perkins return. Alwyn Clarke and Nick Bryan miss through injury, while Harrison Jones has been omitted.

Geelong	POS	Essendon
T. Stewart, C. O’Sullivan, J. Clark	B	A. McGrath, Z. Reid, Z. Johnson
Z. Guthrie, J. Henry, T. Bruhn	HB	J. Prior, A. Roberts, M. Redman
O. Dempsey, B. Smith, M. O’Connor	C	M. Kondogiannis, S. Durham, J. Artemis
G. Miers, O. Henry, B. Close	HF	J. Caldwell, N. Caddy, A. Day-Wicks
S. Mannagh, S. Neale, J. Polkinghorne	F	I. Kako, P. Wright, K. Langford
S. De Koning, T. Atkins, O. Mullin	FOLL	V. Visentini, Z. Merrett, D. Sharp
L. Humphries, M. Blicavs, J. Worpel, J. Martin, O. Wiltshire	I/C	J. Farrow, W. Setterfield, A. Perkins, H. El Achkar, R. Unwin

Geelong Cats vs Essendon Bombers AFL 2026 Round 22 FAQs

How can I watch Geelong Cats vs Essendon Bombers AFL 2026 Round 22?
You can watch the Geelong Cats vs Essendon Bombers AFL 2026 Round 22 game via Fox Footy or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside Australia, the Watch AFL service is the best option for live and on-demand coverage.
How can I buy tickets for Geelong Cats vs Essendon Bombers AFL 2026 Round 22?
To buy tickets for the Geelong Cats vs Essendon Bombers AFL 2026 Round 22 game, check the official AFL website or the official Geelong Cats website.

Verdict

Geelong Cats v Essendon Bombers

Geelong will kick away and cover the 64.5-point margin by scoring over 122.5 points. Shannon Neale and Oliver Henry will kick 3+ each.

Geelong -64.5

Handicap/Line

$1.91 - 3 Units

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