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Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL Tips - Gunston on a charge

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Thu 08 May 2025 13:47

Jeremy Darke 08 May 2025

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Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks expert predictions for Saturday’s Round 9 AFL game
The game will be played at MCG, with the bounce at 1:20 PM (AEST)
Anticipated for a high-scoring game favoring over the game total by experts.
Key players: Jack Gunston predicted to score 3+ goals; Max Gawn expected with high disposals.

Points predicted by Jez.

Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks, Round 9 2025 - Expert Prediction

If you are backing on recent head-to-head results then you would be on Melbourne in this one, but I am staying right away from the result and will call home the over instead.

Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks, Round 9 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Melbourne Demons Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Melbourne Demons Team News
Melbourne Demons Team List
Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Hawthorn Hawks Team News
Hawthorn Hawks Team List
Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Round 9 FAQ’s

The Hawks are tipped to win heavily in this one despite the Demons rolling on a 3-game win streak. But, with the line at over 4 goals and Melbourne having a clear dominance over the Hawks over the last 5 years it makes me hesitant to take on the margin.

Melbourne have been better in attack over the last few weeks, against poor opponents, but sometimes that is all you need to build a little confidence. Hawthorn’s backline has been solid, however they have leaked an average of 76 points this season and haven’t locked out their half-decent opponents.

This is why I am liking the over, Melbourne’s defence has been poor against quality opponents and the Hawks are likely to kick close to if not over 100 while the Demons have a high probability of running with them for a while at least.

Jack Gunston has been in fine touch and has kicked 16 goals in his last 4 so I like another 3 against the Demons. On disposals, Max Gawn has been lifting his side out of their rut and he will need another big game if Melbourne are any chance of staying with the Hawks.

The Demons have conceded an average of 101 points to top-eight teams this season.
2 of the last 3 Demons games have gone over the game total.
Jack Gunston has 3+ goals in his last 4 matches.
Max Gawn has had 25+ disposals in his last 3 matches.

Head to Head

Melbourne have beaten Hawthorn in four-straight matches and have won 7 of the last 8 since the 2019 season.

The Under has hit in the last 3 matches, however that evens out to 4-3 to the under in the last 7 games between the Hawks and Demons.

Melbourne Demons Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-2	2-3	2-3

After a 0-5 start the Demons have now got it together and have won their last 3, as the schedule became a little kinder with matches against Richmond and West Coast after pipping the Dockers.

The Demons averaged just 61 points per game in their opening 5 matches but have gone on the attack against the weaker competition, averaging 99.33 points over their last 3 matches, without scoring more than 108 points in any of the three games.

Melbourne have been able to hit their targets inside 50 in much better areas over the last few weeks while transitioning the ball from their own half and converting into forward entries. The challenge for the Dees will be doing the same against tougher competition.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
3-5	4-4	3-3	0-2

Melbourne Demons Team News

Harrison Petty will miss the match with a concussion. Jacob van Rooyen will get another shot to fill the void of Petty.

Clayton Oliver returned to training after not making the trip west last week and could be up for selection.

Melbourne Demons Team List

B: J.Bowey, S.May, J.McVee

HB: C.Salem, T.McDonald, T.Rivers

C: X.Lindsay, C.Petracca, E.Langdon

HF: K.Chandler, B.Fritsch, T.Sparrow

F: C.Spargo, J.van Rooyen, K.Pickett

FOLL: M.Gawn - C, C.Oliver, H.Langford

I/C: C.Windsor, D.Turner, K.Tholstrup, M.Jefferson, H.Sharp

EMG: B.Laurie, B.Howes, A.Johnson

In: - J.van Rooyen, C.Oliver, M.Jefferson

Out: - J.Viney (Injured), J.Melksham (Managed), H.Petty (Injured)

Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-2	2-3	2-3

The Hawks met a couple of bottom feeders at the right time, getting victories over the Eagles and Tigers after two straight losses to Port and Geelong.

Last weekend’s match was the better of their two victories, locking down defensively against the Tigers, holding them to just 44 points in a 65-point victory. It was a sluggish start for the Hawks, however, they straightened things up and became more efficient inside 50 to pull away in the second half against the Tigers, who they starved of the ball all match.

Hawthorn gave up just 302 possessions to the Tigers which has been their strength this season, ranked third with an average of just 333.8 opposition possessions per game. Domination of territory has also been a key to their success ranked second in the AFL with 47.6 opposition inside 50s per game.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
5-3	4-4	4-2	2-0

Hawthorn Hawks Team News

Jack Scrimshaw will miss another couple of weeks after suffering a second concussion in six weeks.

Cam Mackenzie has been ruled out with a hand injury.

Hawthorn Hawks Team List

B: C.Jiath, J.Weddle, J.Sicily - C

HB: J.Battle, J.Impey, M.D’Ambrosio

C: K.Amon, J.Ward, H.Morrison

HF: B.Hardwick, N.Watson, D.Moore

F: J.Gunston, M.Chol, C.Macdonald

FOLL: L.Meek, J.Newcombe, H.Hustwaite

I/C: J.Ginnivan, J.Worpel, F.Maginness, L.Breust, B.Macdonald

EMG: N.Reeves, S.Frost, J.Serong

In: - K.Amon

Out: - T.Barrass (Managed)

Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Round 9 FAQ’s

How to watch Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Round 9?

You can watch the Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Round 9 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Round 9?

To buy tickets to the Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Round 9 game check the AFL website or the official Melbourne Demons site.

Verdict

Melbourne v Hawthorn

This game is set to go over the game total with Jack Gunston slotting 3 goals for Hawthorn. Max Gawn is running up the disposals at the moment and is backed for 25+ against Hawthorn.

Over 169.5

Game Total

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Jack Gunston

2+ Goals

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Max Gawn

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