2026 AFL Grand Final First Goal Scorer- Tips, Predictions & Best Bets
This article provides an in-depth preview of the 2026 AFL Grand Final first goal scorer market, emphasizing form analysis, past performance, and value options. While big names like Logan Morris and Jye Amiss stand out, the preview suggests Oscar Allen ($16) as the best bet, Patrick Voss ($12) as the next best, Conor McKenna ($23) as strong value, and Hayden Young ($34) as the rough outsider. The recommended staking plan is tailored to maximize potential return based on current form, head-to-head data, and Grand Final scoring trends.
- Oscar Allen ($16) is the best bet for first goal scorer in the 2026 AFL Grand Final.
- Patrick Voss ($12), Hayden Young ($34), and Conor McKenna ($23) are strong value alternatives.
- Recent trends show midfielders and lesser-known forwards can strike early—back multiple options for best value.
Can Patrick Voss and the Dockers make a fast start at the MCG on Grand Final day?(Getty Images)
2026 AFL Grand Final First Goal Scorer Preview
- 2026 AFL Grand Final First Goal Scorer Preview
- Fremantle vs Brisbane 2026 Leading Goalscorers
- Fremantle vs Brisbane Head to Head – Recent Goalscorers
- Fremantle vs Brisbane First Goalscorers Head to Head
- Fremantle First Goalscorers – 2026 Finals
- Brisbane First Goalscorers – 2026 Finals
- Previous AFL Grand Final First Goalscorers
- 2026 AFL Grand Final First Goalscorer – Best Bet
- 2026 AFL Grand Final First Goalscorer- Next Best
- 2026 AFL Grand Final First Goalscorer- Best Value
- 2026 AFL Grand Final First Goalscorer- Best Roughie
Predicting the first goal scorer in the AFL Grand Final is always a challenge, but careful analysis of form, match-ups and historical trends can help identify some interesting options in the market.
Brisbane's Logan Morris and Fremantle's Jye Amiss head into the decider as the two leading goalkickers, while Josh Treacy, Charlie Cameron and Kai Lohmann have also enjoyed prolific seasons.
However, the first goal scorer market isn't necessarily about backing the biggest names. Recent finals form, early scoreboard impact and previous meetings between the two sides provide plenty of clues, with several outsiders shaping as interesting options.
Our selections are Oscar Allen ($16), Patrick Voss ($12), Hayden Young ($34) and Conor McKenna ($23).
Fremantle vs Brisbane 2026 Leading Goalscorers
Fremantle Dockers
- Jye Amiss – 62 goals
- Josh Treacy – 56 goals
- Patrick Voss – 46 goals
- Isaiah Dudley – 32 goals
- Luke Jackson – 29 goals
Voss shapes as an interesting first goal scorer option. The Dockers forward has kicked 46 goals this season and booted four in the only meeting between these sides earlier in the year. At $12, he is one of our selections.
Luke Jackson and Shai Bolton have also made their presence felt early in September, kicking the opening goals in Fremantle's first two finals.
Brisbane Lions
Brisbane Leading Goalscorers:
- Logan Morris – 69 goals
- Charlie Cameron – 58 goals
- Kai Lohmann – 53 goals
- Zac Bailey – 34 goals
- Cam Rayner – 27 goals
- Conor McKenna – 24 goals
- Oscar Allen – 23 goals
Conor McKenna is an intriguing outsider, having booted 24 goals from 20 appearances. That is an average of 1.2 per game and gives him some appeal at $23.
Oscar Allen has also been productive in limited opportunities, kicking 23 goals from 14 appearances at an average of 1.64 per game. He is our leading selection at $16.
Fremantle vs Brisbane Head to Head – Recent Goalscorers
The two sides have met just once this season, with Fremantle recording a 25-point win at the Gabba on May 30. The Dockers' three key forwards did the damage, with Jye Amiss and Patrick Voss booting four goals apiece, while Josh Treacy chipped in with three.
Looking at the past three meetings, Amiss and Treacy have each kicked eight goals against Brisbane. Voss was particularly dangerous in the most recent clash, while Charlie Cameron has been Brisbane's standout with five goals in his past two against Fremantle.
Recent Head-to-Head Goalscorers:
- Josh Treacy – 8 goals in last 3 meetings
- Jye Amiss – 8 goals in last 3 meetings
- Charlie Cameron – 5 goals in last 2 meetings
- Zac Bailey – 5 goals in last 3 meetings
- Patrick Voss – 4 goals in last meeting
Fremantle vs Brisbane First Goalscorers Head to Head
Isaiah Dudley kicked the opening goal in the only meeting between these sides in 2026, giving Fremantle an early advantage at the Gabba.
The Dockers went on to kick three goals to one in the opening quarter before extending their advantage after half-time.
Fremantle First Goalscorers – 2026 Finals
Fremantle have made a habit of getting on the scoreboard first this September, kicking the opening goal in all three of their finals.
Luke Jackson got things underway in the Qualifying Final against Hawthorn, while Shai Bolton struck inside the opening minute of the Semi-Final against Geelong.
Neil Erasmus was the unlikely player to get things started in the Preliminary Final against Sydney, making it three different opening goalscorers in as many finals.
Fremantle Finals First Goalscorers:
- Preliminary Final v Sydney – Neil Erasmus
- Semi-Final v Geelong – Shai Bolton
- Qualifying Final v Hawthorn – Luke Jackson
The Dockers' early scoring has come from a variety of sources, with their midfielders and mobile forwards making an impact before the key forwards have had a chance to settle into the contest.
That brings Hayden Young into calculations at $34. The Fremantle midfielder is capable of pushing forward and hitting the scoreboard, while his ability to launch attacks from the middle makes him an interesting outsider.
Brisbane First Goalscorers – 2026 Finals
Brisbane have kicked the opening goal in just one of their three finals this season, with Kai Lohmann striking after only 30 seconds in the Semi-Final against Adelaide.
Eric Hipwood kicked the Lions' first goal in the Qualifying Final against Sydney, but it was the third goal of the match after the Swans had made the early running.
Charlie Cameron was Brisbane's first goalscorer in the Preliminary Final against Hawthorn, finding the scoreboard at the three-minute mark after Nick Watson had kicked the opener for the Hawks.
Brisbane Finals First Goalscorers:
- Preliminary Final v Hawthorn – Charlie Cameron (not first of match)
- Semi-Final v Adelaide – Kai Lohmann (first of match)
- Qualifying Final v Sydney – Eric Hipwood (not first of match)
Brisbane's small forwards have made an impact early in their past two finals, but Oscar Allen shapes as an interesting alternative at $16.
The former West Coast forward has kicked 23 goals from just 14 appearances this season and offers another target inside attacking 50. His ability to take a contested mark and convert from a set shot makes him one to consider if the Lions can generate the first clean entry.
Previous AFL Grand Final First Goalscorers
The first goal in last year's Grand Final came from Geelong's Ollie Dempsey, who opened the scoring against Brisbane.
Midfielders have featured prominently in recent deciders, although forwards have claimed the honours in three of the past five Grand Finals.
Previous Grand Final First Goalscorers:
- 2025 – Ollie Dempsey (Geelong)
- 2024 – Will Hayward (Sydney)
- 2023 – Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
- 2022 – Tom Hawkins (Geelong)
- 2021 – Christian Petracca (Melbourne)
- 2020 – Dion Prestia (Richmond)
- 2019 – Jeremy Cameron (GWS)
- 2018 – Travis Varcoe (Collingwood)
- 2017 – Rory Sloane (Adelaide)
- 2016 – Luke Parker (Sydney)
- 2015 – Luke Shuey (West Coast)
The recent results suggest there is no need to restrict the search to traditional key forwards. Players who can win the ball around stoppages and push forward have also featured prominently.
2026 AFL Grand Final First Goalscorer – Best Bet
Oscar Allen is our leading selection at $16. The Brisbane forward has booted 23 goals from 14 appearances this season and has the ability to make an immediate impact inside attacking 50.
With plenty of attention likely to go towards Logan Morris, Charlie Cameron and Kai Lohmann, Allen could find himself with an opportunity early. He is a strong contested mark and a reliable set-shot option, making him an appealing choice if Brisbane can generate the first clean entry.
2026 AFL Grand Final First Goalscorer- Next Best
Patrick Voss has enjoyed an excellent season, booting 46 goals from 25 games, and his recent record against Brisbane makes him an obvious contender.
The Dockers forward kicked four goals in the most recent meeting at the Gabba and will again be an important target alongside Jye Amiss and Josh Treacy.
At $12, Voss offers a solid alternative to the more prominent names in the market.
2026 AFL Grand Final First Goalscorer- Best Value
Conor McKenna shapes as value at $23. The Irishman has kicked 24 goals in 20 appearances this season, averaging 1.2 per game.
He is capable of providing an attacking option outside Brisbane's established forward targets and doesn't need a huge number of opportunities to hit the scoreboard. At the price, he is worth including as a speculative selection.
2026 AFL Grand Final First Goalscorer- Best Roughie
Hayden Young shapes as an interesting outsider at $34. Fremantle's opening goals in their three finals have come from Luke Jackson, Shai Bolton and Neil Erasmus, highlighting the variety of players capable of getting them off to a fast start.
Young has the ability to push forward from the midfield and can convert from distance. If Fremantle win the early territory battle, he could find himself in a position to capitalise.
Verdict
10-unit staking plan:
Oscar Allen – 4 units at $16
Patrick Voss – 3 units at $12
Conor McKenna – 2 units at $23
Oscar Allen – 4 units at $16
Patrick Voss – 3 units at $12
Conor McKenna – 2 units at $23
Hayden Young – 1 unit at $34
Oscar Allen
First Goalscorer
$16.00 - 1 Unit
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Patrick Voss
First Goalscorer
$12.00 - 1 Unit
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Conor McKenna
First Goalscorer
$23.00 - 1 Unit
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Hayden Young
First Goalscorer
$34.00 - 1 Unit
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