Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Big battle expected in Rome semi-finals

These two players squared off in the Monte Carlo Masters final to launch the European clay swing and it was Musetti who gained the initial ascendency, claiming the opening set before a long tournament caught up to him and he faded physically, allowing Alcaraz to work himself back into the contest and ultimately take the title.

Musetti has taken his game to another level over the last couple of months and has now reached three consecutive Masters 1000 semi-finals, while Alcaraz has won 13 of his 14 matches on clay and remains the man to beat on this surface. All signs point to another close contest - Alcaraz is still prone to concentration lapses, which makes straightforward victories tough, while Musetti knows his best tennis is good enough in this matchup. In saying that, a 1-4 H2H record against the world's best clay courter is a big hurdle to overcome, even with the home crowd support. I'm backing Over 20.5 total games as the best bet, with value on Alcaraz solving the Musetti puzzle in three.

Alcaraz leads 4-1, winning the last four meetings between the pair - including the aforementioned Monte Carlo final last month, finishing strongly with a 36 61 60 victory.

Alcaraz comes into this contest with a 28-5 record on the season, winning the most matches of anyone on tour so far in 2025.

Although he captured the ATP 500 title in Rotterdam, it wasn't the best or most consistent start to the season for Alcaraz, especially a quarter-final Australian Open exit against an injured Novak Djokovic.

However, a return to clay has sparked Alcaraz back to some of his peak tennis, with the Spaniard winning 13 of his 14 matches - and the one outing he suffered defeat he was affected by injury against Holger Rune in the Barcelona final, which forced his subsequent withdrawal from Madrid.

Returning to action in Rome, Alcaraz has advanced to the semi-finals - but not without some bumps in the road, including dropping a set against Karen Khachanov in the R16 and needing to recover from 2-4 down in the first set and dropping serve in the second in a 6-4 6-4 win over Jack Draper in the quarter-finals.

Similarly to Alcaraz, Musetti's season has gone to a new level since stepping onto European clay.

Musetti has now won 20 of his 26 matches in 2025, while he's also emerged victorious in 22 of his last 26 matches on clay dating back to last year, where he was an Olympic bronze medalist in Paris.

The Italian had never reached a Masters 1000 semi-final before this clay swing, but now he's advanced to that stage in his last three on the bounce, reaching the Monte Carlo final and the last four in Madrid, where he went down to Draper.

Musetti has passed every test with flying colours in Rome, where he was facing increased expectation and pressure as a newly-minted top 10 player at home.

The 23-year-old hasn't dropped a set in reaching the semi-finals, brushing aside Otto Virtanen, Brandon Nakashima, Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev - and in the process, wrapping up a top eight seed for Roland Garros.