2025/26 A-League Round 16

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Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Tips & Prediction - Phoenix to avoid defeat at home

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Fri 06 Feb 2026 01:52

Andrew Hendrie 06 Feb 2026

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Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory predictions for Friday's A-League R16 game
Victory have struggled on the road all season with just one win outside of Victoria
Phoenix in solid form lately, tipped to come away with at least a point
The game is scheduled for kick off at 5.00pm AEDT on Friday February 6

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Phoenix host Victory on Friday (Photo by Getty Images)

Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Tips & Prediction

Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne Victory will both be looking to move closer towards the top six when they clash to launch A-League Round 16 action on Friday at Sky Stadium.

Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Tips & Prediction
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Stats & Trends
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Head To Head
Wellington Phoenix Form Analysis
Wellington Phoenix Team News
Melbourne Victory Form Analysis
Melbourne Victory Team News

Victory appeared as if they were going to establish themselves inside the top six after a four-game winning streak over the holiday period, but they've since lost three of their last four to languish in eighth spot - including a poor 1-0 loss to the Mariners last week. Meanwhile, Phoenix have been in decent form lately, going unbeaten in four of their last five games - but they will be kicking themselves after missing a golden chance to secure three points against reigning champions Melbourne City last week, blowing a two-goal lead and missing a penalty in stoppage time.

Regardless, Wellington are in better form than Victory right now and they look good value to avoid defeat at Sky Stadium. Victory have struggled on the road all season with just one win outside of Victoria, so they can't be trusted across the Tasman. I'm backing Over 2.5 goals too, with Wellington striker Ifeanyi Eze looking to continue his great debut season in the A-League.

Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Stats & Trends

Phoenix are unbeaten in four of their last five games
Victory have lost three of their last four games
Victory have only won one game outside of Victoria all season (in Perth on Oct 31)
Phoenix are unbeaten in four of their last five home games since Nov 22
Phoenix have seen Over 2.5 goals in their last five home games
Phoenix have seen Over 2.5 goals in nine of their last 10 games overall
Victory have seen Over 2.5 goals in four of their last six games
The last two meetings have seen a total of five and six goals scored
Phoenix are unbeaten in nine of their last 11 home games vs Victory
Ifeanyi Eze has scored a league-high seven goals this season, including a brace vs City last week

Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Head To Head

Victory have won the last three meetings between the teams, including a crushing 5-1 demolition in Round 10, with Nikos Vergos scoring a hat-trick after just 47 minutes.

Wellington Phoenix Form Analysis

Phoenix come into this contest with a 5-4-6 record on the season and down in 10th spot on the ladder.

However, the Nix have gone unbeaten in four of their last five games and are just two points adrift of the top six, so they are still well within striking distance of the finals.

Wellington couldn't back up their brilliant 2-0 upset of Sydney FC as they went down 4-1 to the rampant Newcastle Jets, but they were able to secure a point against City last week.

However, it could have been so much more after an Ifeanyi Eze brace gave the Nix a 2-0 lead. Wellington were pegged back to 2-2, but had a golden chance to emerge victorious in injury time, but Manjrekar James saw his penalty saved by Patrick Beach.

Head coach Giancarlo Italiano was understandably frustrated post-match.

“I don’t know what to make of that game to be honest,” Italiano told media. “I’m disappointed. I feel as though if we play that game 20 times, that won’t be the result."

Wellington Phoenix Team News

Wellington Phoenix men’s squad: 3. Corban PIPER, 4. Manjrekar JAMES, 5. Fin ROA CONCHIE, 6. Tim PAYNE, 7. Ifeanyi EZE, 8. Paulo RETRE, 10. Nikola MILEUSNIC, 11. Carlo ARMIENTO, 14. Alex RUFER (c), 15. Isaac HUGHES, 16. Sander KARTUM, 17. Gabriel SLOANE-RODRIGUES, 18. Lukas KELLY-HEALD, 20. Ramy NAJJARINE, 25. Kazuki NAGASAWA, 27. Matt SHERIDAN, 28. Bill TUILOMA, 29. Luke BROOKE-SMITH, 30. Alby KELLY-HEALD (gk), 40. Eamonn MCCARRON (gk)

Melbourne Victory Form Analysis

Victory head into this encounter with a 6-2-7 record on the season, still outside the finals place in eighth position.

However, they too are just one win away from the top six, such is the tight nature of the A-League this season.

Arthur Diles saw the pressure ease on his job after Victory went on an outstanding four-game winning steak over the festive period, which included a 5-1 thumping of the Nix.

The Big V haven't been able to sustain that form though, losing three of their last four games, suffering defeats to the Wanderers, Adelaide and Mariners.

Last week was a poor showing, with Victory losing 1-0 to a 10-man Central Coast side anchored to the bottom of the ladder. New Japanese forward Charles Nduka missed an absolute sitter in the 87th minute to level the scores.

Victory was on top in almost every aspect of the game - except the scoreboard.

“It’s pretty clear why we didn’t get something out of that game. We just weren’t good enough. That’s the reality, that’s the truth, and we’ve got no one but ourselves to blame for that," Diles said in the post-match press conference.“Stats don’t win you games. Stats sometimes show you that you’re doing the right thing in terms of the style of football you want to play.“In the end, they scored, and we didn’t.”

Melbourne Victory Team News

Melbourne Victory FC Squad: 2. Jason DAVIDSON, 4. Lachlan JACKSON, 7. Reno PISCOPO, 8. Jordi VALADON, 9. Nikolaos VERGOS, 10. Denis GENREAU, 11. Clerismario SANTOS RODRIGUES, 14. Matthew GRIMALDI, 15. Sebastian ESPOSITO, 16. Joshua INSERRA, 17. Nishan VELUPILLAY, 19. Jing REEC, 21. Roderick MIRANDA, 22. Joshua RAWLINS, 23. Keegan JELACIC, 25. Jack DUNCAN, 27. Louis D’ARRIGO, 40. Jack WARSHAWSKY, 44. Charles NDUKA, 64. Juan MATA

Verdict

Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne Victory

Phoenix are tipped to earn at least a point at home, while Over 2.5 goals is likely given both sides' fragile defences.

Over 2.5

Total Goals

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Phoenix 2-1

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