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St George Illawarra Dragons vs Melbourne Storm NRL Round 2 Tips & Prediction - Storm get their revenge

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu 12 Mar 2026 11:43

Andrew Hendrie 12 Mar 2026

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St George Illawarra Dragons vs Melbourne Storm predictions for Saturday's NRL R2 game
Storm coming off 50-point demolition of Parra - are tipped to cover on the road
Dragons struggle to create and will find it tough to break through Melbourne
Dry day game = perfect conditions for Melbourne to run rampant
The game is scheduled for kick off at 5.30pm AEDT on Saturday March 14

St George Illawarra Dragons vs Melbourne Storm

St George Illawarra Dragons vs Melbourne Storm NRL Round 2 Tips & Prediction

The Dragons were brave in their Vegas opener, but they simply don't have the attacking firepower to hang with a rampant Storm outfit as the sides prepare to do battle at WIN Stadium on Saturday afternoon.

St George Illawarra Dragons vs Melbourne Storm NRL Round 2 Tips & Prediction
Dragons vs Storm Stats & Trends
Dragons vs Storm Head To Head
St George Illawarra Dragons Form Analysis
St George Illawarra Dragons Team News
Melbourne Storm Form Analysis
Melbourne Storm Team News

Here's the problem with the Dragons. To be competitive, they have to be performing at their absolute peak week in and week out. And that's just not sustainable with their current roster. After a big effort in Vegas that ultimately came to no avail, I have my doubts over their ability to reproduce that kind of footy here. Their attack was simply non-existent - Kyle Flanagan and Daniel Atkinson had zero impact and the end of their sets repeatedly came to blunt, non-eventful conclusions. Only two tries and one was off a kick. That's not going to cut it against a much better attacking side than the Dogs.

And this is a day game in dry conditions. That's important. Melbourne were incredible in these spots last year. The Storm have won their last 11 day games when it hasn't rained, averaging 45 points and conceding just 13. Ten of those 11 victories were by 13+ margins. Yes, the Dragons beat Melbourne at home last year, but that was in atrocious conditions. This is very different.

With all that in mind, take Melbourne to cover a -7.5 line and the Dragons to be kept under 18.5 total team points. Ativalu Lisati is the man replacing Eliesa Katoa on the Storm right edge and we know how prolific he was last year. Lisati scored against the Eels last week and is excellent value to double down here. Check the best Odds from our Top NRL Bookies.

Dragons vs Storm Stats & Trends

Storm have won their last 11 day games in dry conditions
Ten of those 11 victories were by 13+ margins
Storm conceded an average of just 13 points in those 11 games
Storm crushed Parramatta 52-4 in their R1 game
Dragons only managed 14 points in their golden point defeat to the Dogs in Vegas
Storm have gone 2-0 to start a season in 16 of their 23 campaigns under Craig Bellamy
Storm have covered a -7.5 line in their last three NRL wins
The starting Storm second-rower has scored a try in four of their last five games (Ativalu Lisati)
Lisati has scored a try in two of his last four games, including last week vs Eels
Dragons have scored Under 18.5 points in four of their last five games vs Storm - even when they defeated them twice last year
Storm have won their last three games at WIN Stadium

Dragons vs Storm Head To Head

The Dragons stunned Melbourne twice last year, prevailing 14-8 at home in Round 3 before a shock 18-16 victory at AAMI Park in Round 22 as $8.00 outsiders.

Year	Winner	Score	Venue
2025	St George Illawarra Dragons	14–8	Jubilee Stadium, Sydney
2024	St George Illawarra Dragons	18–16	AAMI Park, Melbourne
2023	Melbourne Storm	38–28	WIN Stadium, Wollongong
2022	Melbourne Storm	42–6	AAMI Park, Melbourne
2021	Melbourne Storm	44–18	Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

St George Illawarra Dragons Form Analysis

The Dragons were gallant and perhaps a little unlucky in their 15-14 defeat to the Dogs in Vegas.

However, the fact remains that they just don't have the necessary spark in the halves or grunt in the forwards to be a consistent force right now.

Atkinson and Flanagan took absolutely zero risks when the game was on the line and that proved the difference because the Dogs were flat and there for the taking in the second half.

St George Illawarra completed 37/42 sets, but when you just finish each set with an average kick that finds the back three on the full 20m out from their line, then what's the point?

There was a nice moment for Setu Tu as he scored his first NRL try and he should be confident of crossing again, with the Dragons' left winger scoring in 11 straight games at WIN Stadium.

St George Illawarra Dragons Team News

Flanagan has kept faith with the same 17 players that went down in Vegas.

1. Clinton Gutherson

2. Christian Tuipulotu

3. Moses Suli

4. Valentine Holmes

5. Setu Tu

6. Kyle Flanagan

7. Daniel Atkinson

8. Emre Guler

9. Damien Cook

10. Toby Couchman

11. Luciano Leilua

12. Jaydn Su’A

13. Hamish Stewart

Interchange

14. Hame Sele

15. Josh Kerr

16. Blake Lawrie

17. Ryan Couchman

Reserves

18. Lyhkan King-Togia

19. David Fale

20. Jacob Halangahu

21. Mathew Feagai

22. Tyrell Sloan

Melbourne Storm Form Analysis

It was classic Melbourne dominance in Round 1 as Craig Bellamy's side dropped 50 points on the Eels and extended their extraordinary record in opening matches.

Harry Grant produced a masterclass - arguably his top five best ever performance as he crossed for a double, while Sualauvi Faalogo also scored two tries in a nice opening display after replacing Ryan Papenhuyzen.

The Storm completed 41/48 sets, something that clearly pleased Bellamy post-match.

"I thought our guys really prepared well this week. What we planned to do, we basically did out there," Bellamy said.

"One of the biggest things that went in our favour was the completion rates. They weren't very high in their completion rates, whereas in the second half we were exceptional. If you're that good with your ball control early in the season, that goes a long way to get the result that you want."

Melbourne Storm Team News

Tui Kamikamica comes in at lock for Alec MacDonald, who is out with concussion. Jack Hetherington also returns from suspension on the bench.

1. Sualauvi Faalogo

2. William Warbrick

3. Jack Howarth

4. Moses Leo

5. Nick Meaney

6. Cameron Munster

7. Jahrome Hughes

8. Stefano Utoikamanu

9. Harry Grant

10. Josh King

11. Joe Chan

12. Ativalu Lisati

13. Tui Kamikamica

Interchange

14. Tyran Wishart

15. Cooper Clarke

16. Jack Hetherington

17. Davvy Moale

Reserves

18. Preston Conn

19. Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown

20. Angus Hinchey

21. Shawn Blore

22. Hugo Peel

Verdict

St George Illawarra Dragons v Melbourne Storm

The Storm have too many points in them for the Dragons and are tipped to cover on the road.

Storm -7.5

Line

$1.85 - 3 Units

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