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Parramatta Eels vs Melbourne Storm NRL Round 11 Tips & Prediction - Storm set for another big win over Eels
The Melbourne Storm are strong favorites to defeat the Parramatta Eels in NRL Round 11, backed by a dominant recent record (average win margin of 38-12 in the last seven encounters). The Storm look to build momentum after snapping a losing streak, while the Eels remain inconsistent and leak the most points in the league. Harry Grant, with 10 tries in his last eight outings against Parramatta, is tipped to score again, alongside key tryscorers Faalogo and Addo-Carr. Expect Melbourne to cover the -8.5 line as they aim for back-to-back wins.
- Parramatta Eels vs Melbourne Storm predictions for Saturday's NRL R11 game
- Storm have dominated Parra over last seven games for an average score of 38-12
- Going heavy on tryscorers - Faalogo, Fox & Grant tipped to cross
- The match is scheduled for kick off at 7.45pm AEST on Saturday May 16
Parramatta Eels vs Melbourne Storm NRL Round 11 Tips
Parramatta Eels vs Melbourne Storm NRL Round 11 Tips & Prediction
The Storm are tipped to make it back-to-back wins, continuing their dominant record over the Eels in a Saturday night Magic Round showdown.
Is this the start of the Melbourne comeback? We saw the Panthers rise from the bottom of the table to reach the preliminary finals last season, so Craig Bellamy and his side know it can be done. Still a long way to ago and their big win last week was over an awfully depleted Tigers side, but another dominant performance here would set the tone nicely.
Meanwhile, the Eels remain extremely volatile - they've produced great performances to beat the likes of the Broncos, Bulldogs and Cowboys this season, but they remain the worst defensive team in the competition, leaking 345 points across the opening 10 rounds. Until they fix that area, they won't challenge for the top eight.
Big game between two master halfbacks - Mitch Moses was the match-winner last week for the Eels, while Jahrome Hughes was back to his best as the Storm dropped 44 points on the Tigers, while Cameron Munster also found some form ahead of Origin.
Melbourne have dominated Parramatta in recent times with an average score of 38-12 across the last seven meetings, so take them to cover a -8.5 line. I'm going to focus on tryscorers for the remaining bets. Harry Grant has a ridiculous record against the Eels, scoring 10 tries in his last eight appearances, while Sua Faalago and Josh Addo-Carr can be paired into a small SGM for decent odds.
Eels vs Storm Stats & Trends
- Storm have won the last seven meetings between the teams
- The average score in the last seven meetings has been Storm 38-12
- Storm have scored 46+ points in four of those seven wins
- Eels are the worst defensive team in the comp, leaking 30+ points in five of last seven
- Eels have lost five of their six Magic Round games
- Harry Grant has scored 1+ try in seven of his last eight games vs Eels for a total of 10 - he also scored vs Tigers last week. Grant scored the 2nd try vs Eels in R1 this season
- Sua Faalago has scored 12 tries in 10 games this season, crossing in all but one game
- Josh Addo-Carr has more Magic Round tries than any other player (8) - he's also scored four tries in his last five games
Eels vs Storm Head To Head
As mentioned, the Storm have had the wood over the Eels for a while now, winning the last seven meetings - including a 52-4 demolition in Round 1, with Grant and Faalogo scoring doubles.
| Year | Winner | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Melbourne Storm | 52–4 | AAMI |
| 2025 | Melbourne Storm | 16–10 | CommBank |
| 2025 | Melbourne Storm | 56–18 | AAMI |
| 2024 | Melbourne Storm | 32–14 | CommBank |
| 2024 | Melbourne Storm | 48–16 | Suncorp |
Parramatta Eels Form Analysis
The Eels are languishing in 14th position on the ladder with a 4-6 record and remain unlikely to feature in the finals.
However, if Parramatta can tidy up their defence and Mitch Moses starts to find his best form, then anything is possible.
Moses hasn't been great so far this season, but he produced his best performance last week against the Cowboys, setting up his side's dramatic late comeback with a narrow short side play before slotting home the match-winning field goal in golden point.
It was a much-needed win for the Eels, who had leaked 30+ points in back-to-back games against the Warriors and Manly the previous fortnight.
Melbourne Storm Form Analysis
Finally, the Storm snapped an almost-unprecedented seven-game losing streak with last week's big win over the Tigers.
It was like watching a completely different side - suddenly the energy and line speed was back, while Cameron Munster easily played his best game of the season alongside Jahrome Hughes.
Harry Grant was back scheming from dummy-half and the forwards and outside backs cut out the silly errors that have been costing them so much.
Still, you can't take much from beating this version of the Tigers, so Craig Bellamy will demand another big performance here before we can start declaring the Storm are back.
Eels vs Storm Team News
Jason Ryles has named the same 19-man side for the Eels, with Ronald Volkman keeping his spot in the halves after some impressive performances.
Sua Faalogo has been cleared of a facial fracture and lines up at fullback for Melbourne, while Moses Leo comes into the wing in place of Hugo Peel.
| Parramatta Eels | Position | Melbourne Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Joash Papalii | 1 | Sualauvi Faalogo |
| Brian Kelly | 2 | Will Warbrick |
| Jordan Samrani | 3 | Jack Howarth |
| Sean Russell | 4 | Nick Meaney |
| Josh Addo-Carr | 5 | Moses Leo |
| Ronald Volkman | 6 | Cameron Munster |
| Mitchell Moses | 7 | Jahrome Hughes |
| Luca Moretti | 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu |
| Tallyn Da Silva | 9 | Harry Grant |
| Junior Paulo | 10 | Josh King |
| Kelma Tuilagi | 11 | Shawn Blore |
| Jack Williams | 12 | Ativalu Lisati |
| Jack De Belin | 13 | Trent Loiero |
| Dylan Walker | 14 | Trent Toelau |
| Saxon Pryke | 15 | Cooper Clarke |
| Toni Mataele | 16 | Davvy Moale |
| Charlie Guymer | 17 | Joe Chan |
| Apa Twidle | 18 | Stanley Huen |
| Teancum Brown | 19 | Preston Conn |
| Harrison Edwards | 20 | Josiah Pahulu |
| Araz Nanva | 21 | Manaia Waitere |
| Jonah Pezet | 22 | Angus Hinchey |
Verdict
Taking the Storm to cover, with Grant extending his incredible tryscoring record vs Eels. Faalogo & The Fox can also cross.
Storm -8.5
Line
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