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New Zealand Warriors vs Brisbane Broncos NRL Round 11 Tips - Broncos Value at Suncorp
The Round 11 NRL clash between New Zealand Warriors and Brisbane Broncos is set at Suncorp Stadium, neutralizing the Warriors’ usual home advantage. Historically, the Warriors haven’t beaten the Broncos in Brisbane since 2018. With key players returning—including Adam Reynolds for the Broncos—experts favor Brisbane +3.5 against the spread and see value in the under 52.5 game total due to both teams' recent form and injury lists. Reece Walsh is the top player pick for an anytime and first tryscorer bet.
- Game at Suncorp Stadium removes Warriors’ home edge.
- Tip: Broncos +3.5 and Under 52.5 points total.
- Reece Walsh is the key tryscorer to watch.
- Kick off is at 4:05 PM (AEST) on Sunday, 17th May at Suncorp Stadium
New Zealand Warriors vs Brisbane Broncos
New Zealand Warriors vs Brisbane Broncos, Round 11 2026 - Expert Prediction
The market has this game shaded the wrong way because Magic Round strips out the Warriors' true home advantage and puts Brisbane right back at Suncorp.
- New Zealand Warriors vs Brisbane Broncos, Round 11 2026 - Expert Prediction
- Head to Head Stats
- New Zealand Warriors Form Analysis
- Brisbane Broncos Form Analysis
- New Zealand Warriors v Brisbane Broncos Team News & Team Lists
- New Zealand Warriors vs Brisbane Broncos NRL 2026 Round 11 FAQ’s
This is listed as a Warriors home game, but it is being played at Suncorp Stadium. That matters. The Warriors have not beaten the Broncos in Brisbane since 2018 and Brisbane getting +3.5 is the bet once the venue is treated properly. The New Zealand Warriors are in good touch, but this is not the same as facing Brisbane in Auckland.
The Brisbane Broncos also get Adam Reynolds back from concussion, with Ben Hunt shifting to the interchange. That gives Brisbane the kicking game and game management they missed last week, and it gives Reece Walsh more clean attacking ball around the red zone.
The total sets up lower than the public might expect. The predictive model projected this game at 50.4 points against an earlier market of 51.5 and the current 52.5 gives a cleaner Under position. Brisbane's injury list does not help their attacking fluency, and the Warriors getting bodies back through the middle should make this a genuine grind for long periods.
Walsh is the prop play. He has scored 7 tries in his last 7 games at Suncorp Stadium and returns to the venue with Reynolds back inside the spine. That is enough to take him as both anytime and first tryscorer.
Take Brisbane +3.5 ATS and the Game Total Under 52.5. Reece Walsh anytime tryscorer and first tryscorer are the top player props.
- This game is at Suncorp Stadium and the Warriors have not beaten the Broncos in Brisbane since 2018.
- Brisbane have won 3 of their last 4 Magic Round games.
- The projected 50.4 total points and the current Under 52.5 gives extra room against that number.
- Reece Walsh has scored 7 tries in his last 7 games at Suncorp Stadium.
Head to Head Stats
The Broncos have won 3 of the last 5 games against the Warriors. Brisbane won the most recent meeting 26-12 last season, while the Warriors took the earlier 2025 matchup 20-18. The venue tilts this matchup, with the Warriors still searching for their first Brisbane win over the Broncos since 2018.
| Warriors Atk Rank | Broncos Def Rank | Stat | Broncos Atk Rank | Warriors Def Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 7 | Points | 13 | 2 |
| 10 | 15 | Run Mts | 17 | 3 |
| 4 | 5 | Linebreaks | 16 | 9 |
| 1 | 8 | Compl % | 14 | 3 |
New Zealand Warriors Form Analysis
The Warriors come into Magic Round fresh from the bye and with a stack of reinforcements. Mitch Barnett, Ali Leiataua and Wayde Egan all return from concussion, which gives Andrew Webster more stability through the middle and spine.
They have won 4 of their last 5 games and have averaged 28.8 points across that stretch. The issue is the venue. This matchup is not in New Zealand, and the Suncorp factor changes how the market should be read.
The Warriors still have threats everywhere, including Alofiana Khan-Pereira and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak on the wings. They can win this game, but the number is too generous with Brisbane getting points in Brisbane.
Brisbane Broncos Form Analysis
Brisbane have been hit hard by injuries and have lost back to back games, but Reynolds returning from concussion changes the look of the side. He comes straight back into halfback, which moves Ben Hunt to the interchange and gives the Broncos a better late-game shape.
Philip Coates debuts on the wing for Antonio Verhoeven, while Jack Gosiewski is also out after a head knock. Xavier Willison shifts to prop and Jaiyden Hunt comes into the back row, so the forward pack is not at full strength.
That is why the Under makes sense alongside the Broncos line. Brisbane can keep this close through Reynolds' kicking, Walsh's broken-play threat and better venue familiarity, but they do not need to turn it into a shootout to cover +3.5.
New Zealand Warriors v Brisbane Broncos Team News & Team Lists
New Zealand Warriors Team News: Mitch Barnett, Ali Leiataua and Wayde Egan all return from concussion. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck is out with a shoulder injury, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad is not named and Luke Metcalf is also missing from the squad.
Brisbane Broncos Team News: Adam Reynolds returns from concussion at halfback, pushing Ben Hunt to the interchange. Philip Coates debuts on the wing for Antonio Verhoeven, while Jack Gosiewski is out after a head knock.
Full Team News and Lists are in our dedicated Round 11 Team List Article.
New Zealand Warriors vs Brisbane Broncos NRL 2026 Round 11 FAQ’s
How to livestream New Zealand Warriors vs Brisbane Broncos NRL 2026 Round 11?
You can livestream the New Zealand Warriors vs Brisbane Broncos NRL 2026 Round 11 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.
How to buy tickets to New Zealand Warriors vs Brisbane Broncos NRL 2026 Round 11?
To buy tickets to the New Zealand Warriors vs Brisbane Broncos NRL 2026 Round 11 game check the NRL website or the official New Zealand Warriors site.
Verdict
Take Brisbane +3.5 ATS and the Game Total Under 52.5. Reece Walsh anytime tryscorer and first tryscorer are the top player props.
Brisbane +3.5
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