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Melbourne Storm vs Parramatta Eels NRL Round 1 Tips - Bellamy stays perfect in Round 1

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Tue 03 Mar 2026 14:27

Jeremy Darke 03 Mar 2026

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Melbourne Storm expected to win their 24th consecutive Round 1 match.
Key players missing for Storm, but they maintain a strong lineup.
Eels have improved defence, expect a close low-scoring game.
Kick off is at 8:00 PM (AEST) at AAMI Park

Melbourne Storm vs Parramatta Eels NRL Round 1 Tips

Melbourne Storm vs Parramatta Eels, Round 1 2026 - Expert Prediction

Craig Bellamy will keep his Round 1 record intact for Melbourne winning his 24th consecutive opening match of the season for the Storm, however, don’t expect a blowout.

Melbourne Storm vs Parramatta Eels, Round 1 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head Stats
Melbourne Storm Form & Team Analysis
Melbourne Storm Team News
Melbourne Storm Team List
Parramatta Eels Form & Team Analysis
Parramatta Eels Team News
Parramatta Eels Team List
Melbourne Storm vs Parramatta Eels NRL 2026 Round 1 FAQ’s

The Storm come into this season with a new shape, no Ryan Papenhuyzen at the back and Eli Katoa and Xavier Coates both out long-term. That being said, their spine is healthy and is arguably the most dangerous in the NRL still.

The Eels have expectation in 2026, something they haven’t had for a while, but under Jason Ryles the Eels have improved, finishing the 2025 season with a 5-2 record while conceding just 16.57 points per game during that stretch.

Melbourne have had an unsettled offseason and the Eels are better, but that doesn’t give enough confidence that the Bellamy Round 1 record will be broken. It does give enough to expect this one to be a closer defensive battle than an offensive explosion for either team.

The Storm have a strong defensive Round 1 record so I am inclined to take the under on the Eels 18.5 team total, along with Melbourne to win 1-12, not expecting the Storm attack to explode off the bat with the reshuffles they have made in 2026.

Will Warbrick missed most of the 2025 season but was a real focus for the Storm in attack during the finals. With no Coates or Papenhuyzen, expect the Melbourne winger to be the focal point inside 20m.

Craig Bellamy and the Storm have won 23 straight Round 1 matches.
Melbourne have won their last 6 matches against Parramatta (5 of 6 by 6 points or more).
The Storm have conceded 18 points or less in their last 11 Round 1 matches.
Will Warbrick has scored a try in each of his last 4 games and also his last 4 matches against the Eels.

Head to Head Stats

The Storm have won the last 6 matches against the Eels including a drubbing 56-18 in Round 1 last season. The Eels put up a much better fight in Round 22, going down 16-10 on a Xavier Coates try in the final 10 minutes of the match.

The Eels have scored 18 points or less in all 6 of their losses to the Storm since the 2023 season.

2025 Team Stats

Storm Atk Rank	Eels Def Rank	Stat	Eels Atk Rank	Storm Def Rank
3	10	Points	13	2
6	12	Run Mts	13	3
12	11	Linebreaks	11	6
11	17	Completion %	13	8

Melbourne Storm Form & Team Analysis

2025 was another successful year for the Storm finishing the home and away season in second place and making the Grand Final, however, it is fair to say that Craig Bellamy and the Melbourne squad will see the season as a failure, failing to take home the premiership, losing to Brisbane despite heading into the season finale as strong favourites.

With Ryan Papenhuyzen retiring and the unfortunate events around Eli Katoa, many are tipping the Storm to fall slightly from grace and be fighting for their spot in the top 8 this season. I am certainly not there yet.

Sua Fa’alogo doesn’t have the experience of Paps at the back or the size defensively and is a little outside the usual form of a Storm fullback, but that might not be such a bad thing. He will find his place in the spine that has arguably the best 6,7,9 in the game, so the Storm will be alright.

The loss of Katoa in attack is going to hurt them, but Bellamy always finds a way.

“So, the squad's going to evolve and this is the year. But that's no excuse to drop our standards or drop our expectations. They still remain high,” said Storm General Manager Football Frank Ponissi.

Melbourne Storm Team News

No Ryan Papenhuyzen (retired), no Eli Katoa (out for the season) and no Xavier Coates (likely Round 10) puts some pressure on the Storm to start the 2026 season.

Sualauvi Faalogo will be the new No. 1 in Melbourne, while Ativalu Lisati will get the start in the second row alongside Joe Chan with Shawn Blore (ankle) and Trent Loiero (suspended) both missing the start of the season.

Will Warbrick and Nick Meaney will likely start on the wings with Marion Leo and Jack Howarth in the centres.

Cooper Clarke and Preston Conn have been named on the bench and will make their debuts in the NRL on Thursday night.

Melbourne Storm Team List

1. Sua Fa'alogo

2. Will Warbrick

3. Jack Howarth

4. Moses Leo

5. Nick Meaney

6. Cameron Munster

7. Jahrome Hughes

8. Stefano Utoikamanu

9. Harry Grant (c)

10. Josh King

11. Joe Chan

12. Ativalu Lisati

13. Alec MacDonald

Interchange

14. Tyran Wishart

15. Cooper Clark

16. Tui Kamikamica Jack Hetherington

17. Davvy Moale

18. Preston Conn

19. Suilagi Tuimalatu-Brown

Parramatta Eels Form & Team Analysis

Despite finishing the year in 11th with a 10-14 record, there is expectation in Parramatta in the 2026, after winning 5 of their last 7 matches after the return of Mitch Moses from injury.

Jason Ryles made some strong progress in Parramatta that the team will build on in 2026. They looked more settled and controlled playing higher percentage footy, even when Moses wasn’t on the park.

With the addition of Jonah Pezet in the halves, replacing Dylan Brown, Moses has a halves partner from a successful system (Melbourne) and if the pair find chemistry they can certainly be a danger to their opposition.

With the loss of Zac Lomax, the concern for me is the strength of their backline. Isaiah Iongi raised eyebrows last season and may well turn out to be one of the best fullbacks in the game but he is in just his second season. The 2-5 will need to to lift their No. 1 and be better if the Eels spine is to hit its potential.

Parramatta Eels Team News

Parramatta will start the year with a new halves pairing in Jonah Pezet and Mitch Moses.

Josh Addo-Carr (thumb) will miss the opening match with Bailey Simonsson and Sean Russell starting on the wings after Zac Lomax broke his contract with the Eels in the offseason.

Ryley Smith will start at hooker over Tallyn DaSilva, while Brian Kelly will start in the centres after moving to the club from the Titans.

Parramatta Eels Team List

1. Isaiah Iongi

2. Bailey Simonsson

3. Will Penisini

4. Brian Kelly

5. Sean Russell

6. Jonah Pezet

7. Mitchell Moses (c)

8. J'maine Hopgood

9. Ryley Smith

10. Junior Paulo

11. Jack Williams

12. Kitione Kautoga

13. Jack de Belin

Interchange

14. Dylan Walker

15. Sam Tuivaiti

16. Matt Dorey

17. Tallyn Da Silva

18. Kelma Tuilagi

19. Joash Papali'i

Melbourne Storm vs Parramatta Eels NRL 2026 Round 1 FAQ’s

How to livestream Melbourne Storm vs Parramatta Eels NRL 2026 Round 1?

You can livestream the Melbourne Storm vs Parramatta Eels NRL 2026 Round 1 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Melbourne Storm vs Parramatta Eels NRL 2026 Round 1?

To buy tickets to the Melbourne Storm vs Parramatta Eels NRL 2026 Round 1 game check the NRL website or the official Melbourne Storm site.

Verdict

Melbourne Storm v Parramatta Eels

The Storm will win with a 1-12 margin in a low scoring match that will see the Eels stay under 18.5 points. Will Warbrick will score a try for the Storm.

Melbourne Storm

1-12 Winning Margin

$2.90 - 1 Unit

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Parramatta Under 18.5

Team Total

$1.91 - 2 Units

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