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New Zealand Warriors vs Sydney Roosters NRL Round 1 Tips - Roosters No Good in Season Opener

Ryan Tucker

Editor

Last updated: Thu 05 Mar 2026 08:51

Ryan Tucker 05 Mar 2026

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Kick off is on Friday 6th March, at 6:00 PM (AEST) at Go Media Stadium
Warriors expected to cover the +5.5 spread at home.
Roosters have a poor Round 1 record.
Daniel Tupou tipped for early try-scoring.

New Zealand Warriors vs Sydney Roosters

New Zealand Warriors vs Sydney Roosters, Round 1 2026 - Expert Prediction

The Warriors will keep this one close and cover the line at home thanks to the Roosters poor Round 1 record and the historically low totals between the teams.

New Zealand Warriors vs Sydney Roosters, Round 1 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head Stats
2025 Stats Comparison
New Zealand Warriors Form Analysis & Team News
New Zealand Warriors Team News
New Zealand Warriors Team List
Sydney Roosters Form Analysis & Team News
Sydney Roosters Team News
Sydney Roosters Team List
New Zealand Warriors vs Sydney Roosters NRL 2026 Round 1 FAQ’s

Low scoring games are often tighter on the spread which means we are getting value correlation with the New Zealand Warriors getting 5.5 points at home. Once you factor in home ground advantage the books have this one at over a converted try to the Sydney Roosters which is just not realistic.

Over the last 7 years they have won just 2 Round 1 games and now with a new halves pairing, their key dummy half recruit out injured and a trip across the ditch thrown in, the momentum is on the Warriors side.

Game Totals in the early rounds of the season are historically low, then within this matchup 5 of the last 7 games have stayed Under the projected total and even Under 36.5 which strengthens the prediction.

Given the expected low scoring, when looking for a tryscorer on any top NRL betting site it’s the high probability players that are juiciest which in this case are the wingers. Both teams were bad at conceding the first try at the end of last season but the Roosters are known to push for points early in games.

Summarising, Warriors to cover the +5.5 as the home underdog, the Game Total to go Under and Daniel Tupou for first and anytime try.

The Warriors have a 4-4 ATS record against Sydney since 2019 despite winning only 1 of those games.
Round 1 games since 2019 have averaged just 36.6 pts per game.
Since 2017, Daniel Tupou has scored in every other game against New Zealand, he did not score against them last game.
The Warriors conceded 60% of opposition tries down their right edge last year, opposite Tupou.

Head to Head Stats

New Zealand won the the only matchup between these teams last season 14-6 but Sydney had won 7 straight prior to that, dating back to the start of 2019.

The ATS record stands at 4-4 with 3 of those Warriors covers being as double digit underdogs. 5 of the last 8 games have gone Under the Game Total with those 5 also staying at 36 points or less.

2025 Stats Comparison

Warriors Atk Rank	Roosters Def Rank	Stat	Roosters Atk Rank	Warriors Def Rank
12	8	Points	5	5
8	4	Run Mts	16	7
15	2	Linebreaks	7	8
1	11	Comp %	16	6

New Zealand Warriors Form Analysis & Team News

The Warriors had an amazing start to 2025 winning 12 of their first 17 games before struggling to overcome injury to star playmaker Luke Metcalf. They lost 5 of their last 7 heading into finals and were beaten soundly by the Panthers in week 1.

At Go Media Stadium last year, the Warriors won their first 3 games but then went on to take just 2 victories from their final 8 home games, including the losing final.

Similar to their opponents this week, New Zealand have not had consistency in season openers, with a 3-4 record over the last 7 seasons.

New Zealand Warriors Team News

Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad will start the year at fullback with Taine Tuaupiki the backup back on the 6 man bench. New recruit Alofiana Khan-Pereira has not been able to crack a starting spot with incumbents DWZ and RTS retaining their wing spots.

Ali Leiataua is in the centres with Rocco Berry injured. Tanah Boyd continues at halfback with Luke Metcalf still a few weeks away.

New Zealand Warriors Team List

1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad

2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak

3. Ali Leiataua

4. Adam Pompey

5. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck

6. Chanel Harris-Tavita

7. Tanah Boyd

8. James Fisher-Harris (c)

9. Wayde Egan

10. Jackson Ford

11. Kurt Capewell

12. Jacob Laban

13. Erin Clark

Interchange

14. Sam Healey

15. Demitric Vaimauga

16. Leka Halasima

17. Tanner Stowers-Smith

18. Taine Tuaupiki

19. Morgon Gannon

Sydney Roosters Form Analysis & Team News

The Roosters scraped into the top 8 last season and were bundled out in the first round by the Sharks. Injuries, suspensions and roster changes were common place for the Chooks in 2025 and even though the majority of the top team is available for round 1 there are two notable omissions in Reece Robson (injury) and Victor Radley (suspension).

They have been historically bad in their season openers recently winning just 2 round 1 games over the past seven seasons.

Sydney Roosters Team News

No real surprises for the Roosters with DCE and Sam Walker in the halves and Benaiah Ioelu at hooker for the injured Reece Robson.

Mark Nawaqanitawase featured in the Top 5 Wingers Power Rankings ahead of the 2026 season and is named to play here.

Blake Steep starts at lock with Victor Radley out suspended to start the year. Cody Ramsay has snagged a spot on the 6 man bench after his swap to the Roosters.

Sydney Roosters Team List

1. James Tedesco (c)

2. Daniel Tupou

3. Billy Smith

4. Robert Toia

5. Mark Nawaqanitawase

6. Daly Cherry-Evans

7. Sam Walker

8. Naufahu Whyte

9. Benaiah Ioelu

10. Lindsay Collins

11. Angus Crichton

12. Nat Butcher

13. Blake Steep

Interchange

14. Connor Watson

15. Siua Wong

16. Egan Butcher

17. Spencer Leniu

18. Cody Ramsay

19. Fetalaiga Pauga

New Zealand Warriors vs Sydney Roosters NRL 2026 Round 1 FAQ’s

How to livestream New Zealand Warriors vs Sydney Roosters NRL 2026 Round 1?

You can livestream the New Zealand Warriors vs Sydney Roosters NRL 2026 Round 1 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to New Zealand Warriors vs Sydney Roosters NRL 2026 Round 1?

To buy tickets to the New Zealand Warriors vs Sydney Roosters NRL 2026 Round 1 game check the NRL website or the official New Zealand Warriors site.

Verdict

New Zealand Warriors v Sydney Roosters

Warriors to cover the +5.5 as the home underdog, the Game Total to go Under 40.5 and Daniel Tupou for first and anytime try.

Warriors +5.5

Line

$1.90 - 2 Units

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