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New Zealand Warriors vs Sydney Roosters NRL Round 1 Tips - Roosters No Good in Season Opener

ryan-tucker
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Last updated: Thu 05 Mar 2026 08:51

In the NRL 2026 season opener, experts predict a tight match between the New Zealand Warriors and Sydney Roosters. Despite the Warriors’ struggles last season, the Roosters’ poor Round 1 history and their current team adjustments, including a notable absence due to injury, suggest Warriors have the edge. Historical low scoring trends add value to the Warriors' +5.5 spread and a low Game Total, with Daniel Tupou highlighted for potential early try-scoring impact.

Ryan Tucker 05 Mar 2026
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  • Kick off is on Friday 6th March, at 6:00 PM (AEST) at Go Media Stadium
  • Warriors expected to cover the +5.5 spread at home.
  • Roosters have a poor Round 1 record.
  • Daniel Tupou tipped for early try-scoring.
New Zealand Warriors vs Sydney Roosters

New Zealand Warriors vs Sydney Roosters, Round 1 2026 - Expert Prediction


The Warriors will keep this one close and cover the line at home thanks to the Roosters poor Round 1 record and the historically low totals between the teams.

Low scoring games are often tighter on the spread which means we are getting value correlation with the New Zealand Warriors getting 5.5 points at home. Once you factor in home ground advantage the books have this one at over a converted try to the Sydney Roosters which is just not realistic.

Over the last 7 years they have won just 2 Round 1 games and now with a new halves pairing, their key dummy half recruit out injured and a trip across the ditch thrown in, the momentum is on the Warriors side.

Game Totals in the early rounds of the season are historically low, then within this matchup 5 of the last 7 games have stayed Under the projected total and even Under 36.5 which strengthens the prediction.

Given the expected low scoring, when looking for a tryscorer on any top NRL betting site it’s the high probability players that are juiciest which in this case are the wingers. Both teams were bad at conceding the first try at the end of last season but the Roosters are known to push for points early in games.

Summarising, Warriors to cover the +5.5 as the home underdog, the Game Total to go Under and Daniel Tupou for first and anytime try.

  • The Warriors have a 4-4 ATS record against Sydney since 2019 despite winning only 1 of those games. 
  • Round 1 games since 2019 have averaged just 36.6 pts per game.
  • Since 2017, Daniel Tupou has scored in every other game against New Zealand, he did not score against them last game.
  • The Warriors conceded 60% of opposition tries down their right edge last year, opposite Tupou. 

Head to Head Stats


New Zealand won the the only matchup between these teams last season 14-6 but Sydney had won 7 straight prior to that, dating back to the start of 2019.

The ATS record stands at 4-4 with 3 of those Warriors covers being as double digit underdogs. 5 of the last 8 games have gone Under the Game Total with those 5 also staying at 36 points or less.

2025 Stats Comparison


Warriors Atk RankRoosters Def RankStatRoosters Atk Rank
Warriors Def Rank
128Points55
84Run Mts167
152Linebreaks78
111Comp %166

New Zealand Warriors Form Analysis & Team News


The Warriors had an amazing start to 2025 winning 12 of their first 17 games before struggling to overcome injury to star playmaker Luke Metcalf. They lost 5 of their last 7 heading into finals and were beaten soundly by the Panthers in week 1. 

At Go Media Stadium last year, the Warriors won their first 3 games but then went on to take just 2 victories from their final 8 home games, including the losing final. 

Similar to their opponents this week, New Zealand have not had consistency in season openers, with a 3-4 record over the last 7 seasons.

New Zealand Warriors Team News


Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad will start the year at fullback with Taine Tuaupiki the backup back on the 6 man bench. New recruit Alofiana Khan-Pereira has not been able to crack a starting spot with incumbents DWZ and RTS retaining their wing spots.

Ali Leiataua is in the centres with Rocco Berry injured. Tanah Boyd continues at halfback with Luke Metcalf still a few weeks away.

New Zealand Warriors Team List


1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 
3. Ali Leiataua 
4. Adam Pompey
5. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck
6. Chanel Harris-Tavita 
7. Tanah Boyd 
8. James Fisher-Harris (c)
9. Wayde Egan
10. Jackson Ford
11. Kurt Capewell
12. Jacob Laban
13. Erin Clark 

Interchange
14. Sam Healey
15. Demitric Vaimauga
16. Leka Halasima
17. Tanner Stowers-Smith
18. Taine Tuaupiki
19. Morgon Gannon

Sydney Roosters Form Analysis & Team News


The Roosters scraped into the top 8 last season and were bundled out in the first round by the Sharks. Injuries, suspensions and roster changes were common place for the Chooks in 2025 and even though the majority of the top team is available for round 1 there are two notable omissions in Reece Robson (injury) and Victor Radley (suspension).

They have been historically bad in their season openers recently winning just 2 round 1 games over the past seven seasons.

Sydney Roosters Team News


No real surprises for the Roosters with DCE and Sam Walker in the halves and Benaiah Ioelu at hooker for the injured Reece Robson. 

Mark Nawaqanitawase featured in the Top 5 Wingers Power Rankings ahead of the 2026 season and is named to play here.

Blake Steep starts at lock with Victor Radley out suspended to start the year. Cody Ramsay has snagged a spot on the 6 man bench after his swap to the Roosters.

Sydney Roosters Team List


1. James Tedesco (c)
2. Daniel Tupou
3. Billy Smith 
4. Robert Toia
5. Mark Nawaqanitawase
6. Daly Cherry-Evans
7. Sam Walker
8. Naufahu Whyte 
9. Benaiah Ioelu
10. Lindsay Collins
11. Angus Crichton 
12. Nat Butcher
13. Blake Steep

Interchange
14. Connor Watson 
15. Siua Wong
16. Egan Butcher
17. Spencer Leniu
18. Cody Ramsay
19. Fetalaiga Pauga

New Zealand Warriors vs Sydney Roosters NRL 2026 Round 1 FAQ’s

How to livestream New Zealand Warriors vs Sydney Roosters NRL 2026 Round 1?

You can livestream the New Zealand Warriors vs Sydney Roosters NRL 2026 Round 1 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to New Zealand Warriors vs Sydney Roosters NRL 2026 Round 1?

To buy tickets to the New Zealand Warriors vs Sydney Roosters NRL 2026 Round 1 game check the NRL website or the official New Zealand Warriors site.

Verdict

Warriors to cover the +5.5 as the home underdog, the Game Total to go Under 40.5 and Daniel Tupou for first and anytime try.
Best Bet1: Warriors +5.5 Line $1.90 at Betnow - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Under 40.5 Game Total $1.90 at Ladbrokes Australia - 1 Unit
Best Bet3: Daniel Tupou Anytime Tryscorer $2.05 at Neds - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Daniel Tupou First Tryscorer $10.00 at dabble - 1 Unit
Warriors +5.5
Line
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