Alex de Minaur vs Novak Djokovic ATP Beijing Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Djokovic to win seventh China Open title
Novak Djokovic heads into the ATP Beijing final as the clear favorite against Alex de Minaur. Despite early fitness concerns, Djokovic dominated top players like Zverev and Medvedev, extending his unbeaten Beijing record to 33-0. De Minaur has battled hard to reach the final but hasn't been at his best this season, especially against top 10 opponents. Head-to-head, Djokovic leads 3-1. If Djokovic maintains his current form, he's tipped to win in straight sets and clinch his 102nd tour title and seventh China Open crown.
- Alex de Minaur vs Novak Djokovic predictions for Tuesday's ATP Beijing final
- Djokovic undefeated in Beijing (33-0) & leads H2H with Demon 3-1
- De Minaur with a poor 4-24 record vs top 10 outside of Laver Cup since Feb 2024
- The match is scheduled to start at 10.00pm AEST on Tuesday October 6
Alex de Minaur v Novak Djokovic Live StreamWatch live online at bet365 > Tennis > ATP Beijing. T&Cs apply.
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Alex de Minaur vs Novak Djokovic ATP Beijing Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
A resurgent Novak Djokovic is tipped to win his 102nd tour-level title and seventh piece of China Open silvereware when he comes up against Alex de Minaur in the final in Beijing on Tuesday night.
What a tournament this is turning into for Djokovic.
The 39 year-old arrived in Beijing with lots of question marks surrounding his physical stage after crashing out of Cincinnati and the US Open at the first hurdle. Djokovic also required medical timeouts in his opening two matches in Beijing against Nuno Borges and Bu Yunchaokete.
But Djokovic has recaptured his best tennis and seemingly shrugged off his fitness problems, registering incredible back-to-back victories over World No. 1 Alexander Zverev and an in-form Daniil Medvedev, improving his flawless China Open record to 33-0 and giving himself the opportunity to win a seventh title in the Chinese capital.
And if he maintains this current level, I don't think De Minaur has much of a chance.
The Aussie hasn't been great this season and while there's been minor improvement in Beijing, I think he's still operating well below his best level - he's just used his trademark grit and determination to battle his way into the final.
Djokovic's level was ridiculously high against Zverev and Medvedev. Demon might have the edge physically if he can drag this into a deciding set, but Djokovic probably doesn't let it get to that point.
De Minaur vs Djokovic Stats & Trends
- Djokovic has won all 33 of his matches in Beijing, with 28 coming in straight sets
- Djokovic has a 10-5 record in his last 15 finals, with all five defeats coming vs Sinner or Alcaraz
- Djokovic has won 12 of his last 13 matches vs top 10 players outside of Sinner & Alcaraz
- De Minaur has lost 24 of his last 28 matches vs top 10 players outside of Laver Cup, with 17 coming in straight sets
- Nine of De Minaur's 11 wins in finals have come vs players outside the top 20
De Minaur vs Djokovic Head To Head
Djokovic leads 3-1, with de Minaur's only win coming in the United Cup.
| Year | Winner | Event | Round | Surface | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Novak Djokovic | Wimbledon | Round of 16 | Outdoor Grass | 1-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 |
| 2024 | Novak Djokovic | Wimbledon | Quarterfinal | Outdoor Grass | W/O |
| 2024 | Novak Djokovic | ATP Masters 1000 Monte-Carlo | Quarterfinal | Outdoor Clay | 7-5, 6-4 |
| 2024 | Alex de Minaur | United Cup | Quarterfinal | Outdoor Hard | 6-4, 6-4 |
| 2023 | Novak Djokovic | Australian Open | Round of 16 | Outdoor Hard | 6-2, 6-1, 6-2 |
Alex de Minaur Form Analysis
- 2026 ATP Record: 43-18
- ATP Beijing Record: 8-2
- Current Ranking: No. 9
- Career-High Ranking: No. 5 (July 2026)
It was a good start to the season for De Minaur as he won 11 of 12 matches to make the Australian Open quarter-finals and take out the title in Rotterdam.
However, De Minaur has been relatively poor ever since - he's failed to go behind the R16 in six of seven Masters 1000 events, along with Roland Garros, Wimbledon and the US Open.
Despite those lacklustre performances in the big tournaments, De Minaur has maintained his spot inside the top 10 and this run to the China Open final will see him rise one spot to No. 8.
De Minaur hasn't been entirely convincing in Beijing - he moved past Mariano Navone 7-6(4) 6-2 before pulling off a big escape against Quentin Halys in the second round (3-6 7-6(5) 7-5).
The Aussie then came back from a set down to beat Andrey Rublev 1-6 6-2 6-3 before benefitting from a Hubert Hurkacz retirement in the semi-finals.
Novak Djokovic Form Analysis
- 2026 ATP Record: 21-7
- ATP Beijing Record: 33-0
- Current Ranking: No. 11
- Career-High Ranking: No. 1 (2011)
Djokovic has proven he still has what it takes to beat the best players in the world when healthy this season, beating Sinner on his way to the Australian Open final, reaching the semi-finals at Wimbledon and now beating Zverev and Medvedev back-to-back to reach his seventh China Open final.
After battling physical problems in defeats to Argentines Thiago Agustin Tirante and Navone at Cincinnati and the US Open, Djokovic arrived in Beijing with question marks lingering over his fitness.
More questions were asked as he took medical timeouts across his opening two wins over Borges (6-3 7-6(2)) and Bu (4-6 7-6(2) 6-2).
But the 39-year-old has answered emphatically, producing some throwback performances to conquer Zverev (4-6 6-4 6-4) and Medvedev (7-5 5-3 Def.) to make it 33 straight wins in the Chinese capital.
Djokovic saved 16 of 18 break points in a titanic tussle with Medvedev from the back of the court, with some vintage exchanges and glorious backhands from both sides of the court. Unfortunately, the match ended abruptly after Medvedev was defaulted for accidentally hitting a spectator with a loose ball as Djokovic served for the match.
De Minaur vs Djokovic Live Stream
Watch and bet on Alex de Minaur vs Novak Djokovic live tennis from Beijing.
You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > ATP Beijing with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.
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Verdict
There won't be much de Minaur can do if Djokovic maintains his level from the Zverev & Medvedev wins - backing the GOAT in straights.
Djokovic Win
H2H
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Djokovic 2-0
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