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Newcastle Knights vs North QLD Cowboys NRL Round 1 Tips - Cows cover in NRL opener in Vegas

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Fri 27 Feb 2026 09:17

Jeremy Darke 27 Feb 2026

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Newcastle Knights vs North QLD Cowboys expert predictions for Sunday’s Round 1 NRL game
Kick off is at 1:15 PM (AEDT) at Allegiant Stadium
North QLD strives to recover from a disappointing 2025 season.
Expect a tight game with potential try from Jaxson Purdue.

Newcastle Knights vs North QLD Cowboys NRL Round 1 Tips

Newcastle Knights vs North QLD Cowboys, Round 1 2026 - Expert Prediction

The new era in Newcastle will take some time to gel with the Cowboys covering the line as the 4.5-point favourites in the NRL 2026 season opener in Las Vegas.

Newcastle Knights vs North QLD Cowboys, Round 1 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Newcastle Knights Form Analysis
Newcastle Knights Team News
Newcastle Knights Team List
North QLD Cowboys Form Analysis
North QLD Cowboys Team News
North QLD Cowboys Team List
Newcastle Knights vs North QLD Cowboys NRL 2026 Round 1 FAQ’s

Breaking down this match at first look, I was leaning into Newcastle to cover as the underdog, however the stats and trends triggered in my brain and I just couldn’t do it. I do believe in the Knights improving in 2026 but under a new coach and a new halves pairing in will likely take a few weeks.

North Queensland disappointed everyone in 2025 and they will come into the new season with a bit of a chip on their shoulder after such a poor season. Todd Payton will need to find the defensive structure that took the Cowboys to the Prelim in 2022 and the Semis in 2024, because he may just lose his job if he doesn’t.

I expect both teams to have a strong focus on defence to start the year which is why I am following the under trend on the game total of 42.5 points. With the Cows having a more settled roster I am taking them to cover as the 4.5-point favourites, but I do believe this one will be tight so I will take a side bet with either team winning by a 1-12 margin.

Jaxon Purdue is starting in the centres for the Cowboys and has scored a try in 13 of 16 games when wearing the No. 3 jersey.

The Cowboys have won 5 straight matches against the Knights.
3 of the last 4 North Queensland victories over Newcastle have been by a 1-12 margin.
5 of the last 6 matches between the Knights and Cowboys have gone under the game total.
Jaxon Purdue has scored 14 tries in 16 games when starting in the centres.

Head to Head

North Queensland have won their last 5 matches against Newcastle. To note, all five games were played at QCB Stadium in Townsville.

The Cowboys ran away with a 38-4 victory over Newcastle in Round 24 in their only matchup of the 2025 season.

6 of the last 8 matches between the Knights and Cowboys have hit the under on the game total.

Newcastle Knights Form Analysis

Despite having one of the most electrifying players in the game in Kalyn Ponga, the Knights were the worst attacking team in the NRL in 2025, averaging just 14 points per game and scoring over 20 points just 5 times all season.

It was a shame, because in the first half of the year they had one of the best defences in the competition, averaging just 18.8 points against in their first 15 matches, however it went pear-shaped quickly, losing their last 9 games and conceding an average of 39 points per game.

It is a new era in the Hunter in 2025 with Justin Holbrook taking over from Adam Elliot and in the same swoop the Knights have brought in some more attacking flair in the halves with Dylan Brown coming in as the highest paid player in the game. Newcastle have also added depth in the halves with Sandon Smith coming over from the Roosters.

Newcastle Knights Team News

The biggest surprise from the Knights team list is that Fletcher Sharpe will start in the No. 6 beside new recruit Dylan Brown who will play out of position at halfback after being the five-eighth at Parramatta for so long. Sandon Smith will start off the bench as the utility.

Jermaine McEwen has taken a spot in the starting side on the edge with Thamoas Cant coming off the pine.

Newcastle Knights Team List

1. Kalyn Ponga (c)

2. Dominic Young

3. Dane Gagai

4. Bradman Best

5. Greg Marzhew

6. Fletcher Sharpe

7. Dylan Brown

8. Jacob Saifiti

9. Phoenix Crossland

10. Trey Mooney

11. Dylan Lucas

12. Jermaine McEwen

13. Tyson Frizell

Interchange

14. Sandon Smith

15. Mat Croker

16. Thomas Cant

17. Pasami Saulo

Reserves

18. Fletcher Hunt

19. Francis Manuleleua

20. Tyson Gamble

21. Cody Hopwood

22. Jame Schiller

North QLD Cowboys Form Analysis

The Cowboys were arguably the most disappointing team in the NRL last season, failing to fire and finishing with just 9 wins. The narrative was that they had a side that could beat anyone, especially with the attacking flair of Scott Drinkwater behind the game management of Tom Dearden, however, the Cows would simply switch off 20 minutes and let their opposition take over.

Todd Payton will be in the fire line if the Cowboys do not get off the line early in 2026. There has been very little movement in his squad, besides the exchange of Reece Robson for Reed Mahoney at hooker.

In the successful years of Payton’s tenure the Cowboys were a defensive beast, however, last season they ranked 16th in the league in opposition points (28.5/G) bleeding territory with an average of 32 tackles per game inside their own 20m line on the back of an average of 6.3 opposition linebreaks per game.

North QLD Cowboys Team News

Reed Mahoney comes in from the Bulldogs taking his familiar No. 9 jersey in a point-to-prove season after being discarded by Canterbury. Soni Luke will start off the bench as the utility.

Many assumed Jaxon Purdue would start in the halves, however he takes a place in the centres with Jake Clifford playing alongside Tom Dearden.

North QLD Cowboys Team List

1. Scott Drinkwater

2. Braidon Burns

3. Jaxon Purdue

4. Tom Chester

5. Murray Taulagi

6. Jake Clifford

7. Tom Dearden (c)

8. Coen Hess

9. Reed Mahoney

10. Jason Taumalolo

11. Heilum Luki

12. Sam McIntyre

13. Reuben Cotter (c)

Interchange

14. Soni Luke

15. Thomas Mikaele

16. Harrison Edwards

17. Kai O'Donnell

Reserves

18. Griffin Neame

19. John Bateman

20. Liam Sutton

21. Matthew Lodge

22. Robert Derby

Newcastle Knights vs North QLD Cowboys NRL 2026 Round 1 FAQ’s

How to livestream Newcastle Knights vs North QLD Cowboys NRL 2026 Round 1?

You can livestream the Newcastle Knights vs North QLD Cowboys NRL 2026 Round 1 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Newcastle Knights vs North QLD Cowboys NRL 2026 Round 1?

To buy tickets to the Newcastle Knights vs North QLD Cowboys NRL 2026 Round 1 game check the NRL website or the official Newcastle Knights site.

Verdict

Newcastle Knights v North QLD Cowboys

The Cowboys will cover as the 4.5 point favourite in a match that stays under 42.5 points. Jaxson Purdue will score a try for the Cowboys.

North Queensland -4.5

Handicap/Line

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