Manly Sea Eagles vs Canberra Raiders NRL Round 1 Tips & Prediction - Manly to edge out Raiders at 4 Pines

Canberra Raiders were the story of last year's regular season. They came from nowhere to secure the minor premiership, led by one of the competition's best forward packs and some electrifying youngsters in the backline, namely Kaeo Weekes and Ethan Strange.

However, I don't have them making the eight this year. The Raiders rode their luck tremendously in 2025 - they had a ridiculous 8-1 record in games decided by seven points or less. That sort of luck tends to even out over time and with veteran halfback Jamal Fogarty jumping ship to Manly this season, I wonder if their young halves pairing have the ability and composure to ice out games and control territory. Fogarty's kicking game is one of the best in the NRL and he will be determined to get his Manly career off to a winning start against his former club as he replaces club legend Daly Cherry-Evans.

I'm taking Manly at home here. Key forwards Jake Trbojevic, Taniela Paseka and Haumole Olakau'atu are all back from injury, while Tom Trbojevic - by all accounts - is thriving in the captaincy role and coming off a blinder of a preseason. When Turbo is in full flight, confident and playing without injury, Manly are a different beast, especially at 4 Pines. Backing Manly in a close one with Turbo extending his dominant tryscoring record against the Green Machine.

Reuben Garrick absolutely tore up Canberra's suspect right-edge defence in Round 3, scoring four tries - he looks another solid pick for Anytime Tryscorer.

Their forward pack was decimated by injuries throughout the campaign, while superstar fullback Tom Trbojevic continued to be plagued by niggling injuries.

However, there's positive signs at Brookie - Taniela Paseka is back after barely featuring last year and the barnstorming Haumole Olakau'atu has also fully recovered from surgery.

Former Manly playmaker Kieran Foran also says Trbojevic is in the best shape he's seen him coming into 2026 as the club's new captain following the departure of DCE.

Fogarty fills the boots of DCE in the halves alongside Luke Brooks, with Tommy Turbo starting at fullback as the new captain.

Kobe Hetherington makes his Manly debut off the bench after winning a premiership with the Broncos last year.

1. Tom Trbojevic 

2. Jason Saab 

3. Tolutau Koula 

4. Reuben Garrick 

5. Lehi Hopoate 

6. Luke Brooks 

7. Jamal Fogarty 

8. Taniela Paseka 

9. Jake Simpkin 

10. Siosiua Taukeiaho 

11. Haumole Olakau’atu 

12. Ben Trbojevic 

13. Jake Trbojevic

14. Joey Walsh 

15. Kobe Hetherington 

16. Ethan Bullemor 

17. Nathan Brown

18. Clayton Faulalo 

19. Brandon Wakeham 

20. Corey Waddell 

21. Blake Wilson 

22. Paul Bryan

Canberra suffered a shock loss to Cronulla at home before blowing a huge lead as Reece Walsh carved them up and inspired the Broncos to one of the biggest comebacks in finals history.

How the Raiders bounce back from that disappointment remains to be seen. It won't be easy, but Ricky Stuart has seen it all and will have them ready to go.

Canberra's primary strength remains their forward pack, led by Jo Tapine, Josh Papalii and Hudson Young.

Simi Sasagi gets a start at centre in place of Matt Timoko, who is nursing a foot injury. Former Knight Jayden Brailey also makes his club debut off the pine.

1. Kaeo Weekes 

2. Savelio Tamale 

3. Simi Sasagi 

4. Sebastian Kris 

5. Xavier Savage 

6. Ethan Strange 

7. Ethan Sanders 

8. Josh Papali’i 

9. Tom Starling 

10. Joseph Tapine 

11. Hudson Young 

12. Noah Martin 

13. Corey Horsburgh

14. Jayden Brailey 

15. Zac Hosking 

16. Ata Mariota 

17. Morgan Smithies

18. Daine Laurie 

19. Jed Stuart 

20. Matt Nicholson 

21. Matthew Timoko 

22. Owen Pattie