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Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers NRL Round 1 Tips - Broncos Tipped To Start Season With Win

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Thu 05 Mar 2026 08:51

Ryan Tucker 05 Mar 2026

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Kick off is on Friday March 6th, at 8:00 PM (AEST) at Suncorp Stadium
Broncos favored to win and cover 2.5-point line at home.
Penrith's defensive edges weakened with key players out.
Game Total predicted to be under 40.5 with a close finish.

Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers

Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers, Round 1 2026 - Expert Prediction

The Broncos are tipped to start their premiership defence in the right way with a slim victory over the Penrith Panthers.

Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers, Round 1 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head Stats
2025 Stats Comparison
Brisbane Broncos Form Analysis & Team News
Brisbane Broncos Team News
Brisbane Broncos Team List
Penrith Panthers Form Analysis & Team News
Penrith Panthers Team News
Penrith Panthers Team List
Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers NRL 2026 Round 1 FAQ’s

The Rugby League Gods have graced us with a top level match up on the first Friday night of the season. These two teams have created a great rivalry over the past few seasons, playing in Grand Finals, Prelims and tight regular season clashes.

Territory and ball security will decide this game. No team will want to give the other more possessions and more opportunities to score points. The Brisbane Broncos have more flair and if it comes down to one or two magical plays, which it is likely to, then they have shown players like Reece Walsh, Kotoni Staggs and Adam Reynolds are key. Walsh the number 1 choice in Top 5 Fullback Power Rankings heading into 2026.

The Penrith Panthers were the benchmark for Run Metres last season and will likely be near the top again in 2026 with a strong forward pack. But with both their starting backrowers out of action this weekend, their defence is weakened on the edges which is crucial against this Broncos attack.

The prediction is that this game is decided late in a close test of patience and stamina. Take the Broncos to win and cover the short line as 2.5 favourites at home, the Game Total to go Under 40.5 and Reece Walsh to cross for a 4 pointer.

Home Favourites covered at almost 54% last season, the Broncos covered 9 of 13 games at Suncorp in 2025 including their Prelim v Penrith.
Game Totals in Round 1 average just 36.6 pts over the last 7 seasons. 8 of the last 10 regular season matchups between these two teams have gone Under.
Penrith allowed 84% of their opposition tries down the edges last season and line up without their two starting backrowers.
Reece Walsh has scored in 3 of 8 career games v Penrith and crossed in 12 of 21 games last season.

Head to Head Stats

Brisbane beat the Panthers in a Prelim thriller last season to get through to the Grand Final but had lost 5 straight against them including the 2023 Grand Final. Since 2019 the Panthers hold an 8-2 regular season record but the Broncos have held their own with a 5-5 ATS record.

8 of the last 10 regular season matchups have gone Under the Game Total.

2025 Stats Comparison

Broncos Atk Rank	Panthers Def Rank	Stat	Panthers Atk Rank	Broncos Def Rank
2	3	Points	7	7
12	9	Run Mts	1	2
1	7	Linebreaks	3	3
14	16	Comp %	4	5

Brisbane Broncos Form Analysis & Team News

The Broncos surprised everyone but themselves last season by winning the Premiership. They battled a lot of off-field noise, suspensions and injuries to key playmakers all through the season but still came up trumps when they needed to.

Brisbane were one of the best scoring teams in the league ranking 1st in Linebreaks and 3rd in Efficiency Inside 20m but at times were caught out defensively by teams that played unpredictable footy.

They are still well inside their premiership window and are the bookmaker favourites to win the comp yet again.

Brisbane Broncos Team News

Brendan Piakura will miss the start of the season with injury which pushes Jack Gosiewski into a starting role. Ben Hunt has been named as the bench utility with Ezra Mam and Adam Reynolds the halves combo and Corey Paix the hooker.

Brisbane Broncos Team List

1. Reece Walsh

2. Josiah Karapani

3. Kotoni Staggs

4. Gehamat Shibasaki

5. Deine Mariner

6. Ezra Mam

7. Adam Reynolds (c)

8. Corey Jensen

9. Cory Paix

10. Payne Haas

11. Jack Gosiewski

12. Jordan Riki

13. Patrick Carrigan

Interchange

14. Ben Hunt

15. Xavier Willison

16. Ben Talty

17. Aublix Tawha

18. Grant Anderson

19. Jesse Arthars

Penrith Panthers Form Analysis & Team News

The Panthers had one of the most exciting journey’s last season defending their 2024 Premiership. Last on the ladder at the completion of Round 8, they went on to win 11 of their next 16 games, drawing 1, to sneak into the finals at 7th spot on the ladder.

They are still an elite team with an elite roster and elite structures. They finished 2025 as the top team for Run Metres, while ranking 3rd in Linebreaks and 3rd in Tackles Inside Opposition 20m.

Penrith have been successful for a long time now and have become reliant on their star players to guide the new ones around the park. When they are out injured or suspended the standard is markedly different.

Penrith Panthers Team News

Relatively settled line up for the Panthers to start 2026, Liam Henry is out injured as is Liam Martin. Luke Garner and Scott Sorensen both start in the back row.

Jack Cogger is the bench utility, returning to the Panthers with Thomas Jenkins named on the extended bench as the cover for the backline.

Penrith Panthers Team List

1. Dylan Edwards

2. Paul Alamoti

3. Izack Tago

4. Casey McLean

5. Brian To'o

6. Blaize Talagi

7. Nathan Cleary

8. Moses Leota

9. Mitch Kenny

10. Lindsay Smith

11. Scott Sorensen

12. Luke Garner

13. Isaah Yeo (c)

Interchange

14. Jack Cogger

15. Luron Patea

16. Isaiah Papali'i

17. Kalani Going

18. Thomas Jenkins

19. Freddy Lussick

Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers NRL 2026 Round 1 FAQ’s

How to livestream Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers NRL 2026 Round 1?

You can livestream the Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers NRL 2026 Round 1 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers NRL 2026 Round 1?

To buy tickets to the Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers NRL 2026 Round 1 game check the NRL website or the official Brisbane Broncos site.

Verdict

Brisbane Broncos v Penrith Panthers

Brisbane -2.5

Line

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Game Total

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