Tomas Machac vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Machac to edge close Rome opener

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu 07 May 2026 01:00

Andrew Hendrie 07 May 2026

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Tomas Machac vs Stefanos Tsitsipas predictions for Thursday's ATP Rome R1 match
Machac frequently involved in long battles - Over 22.5 games backed
Tsitsipas remains below his best, Machac tipped to repeat AO win from earlier this year
The match is scheduled to start around 1.00am AEST on Thursday May 7

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Tomas Machac (Photo by Getty Images)

Tomas Machac vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

One of the most anticipated first round matchups at the Rome Masters pits Tomas Machac up against former finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas on Thursday.

Tomas Machac vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Machac vs Tsitsipas Stats & Trends
Machac vs Tsitsipas Head To Head
Tomas Machac Form Analysis
Stefanos Tsitsipas Form Analysis
Machac vs Tsitsipas Live Stream

It's been an alarming fall from grace for Tsitsipas, with the former World No. 3 languishing outside the top 70 coming into Rome. There were some positive signs for Tsitsipas in Madrid, but the Greek still lost a close contest to Casper Ruud in three tiebreaks, which would have further dented his confidence.

Meanwhile, Machac continues to be plagued by fitness issues - when he's injury-free, the Czech is a top 10 talent, but all too often his body is letting him down.

It makes predicting Machac matches difficult because you just don't know how his fitness levels are going to be on any given day. If were are to assume he's taking the court healthy, then I think he's great value as the underdog - I'm going to need to see more from Tsitsipas before I can declare 'he's back', while Machac won their previous meeting this year at the Australian Open.

Machac also has a tendency to find himself in long, lengthy battles - the overwhelming majority of his recent matches have gone over the total games line, so 23+ games looks like a good play as well.

Machac vs Tsitsipas Stats & Trends

Machac has seen Over 22.5 games in nine of his last 10 matches
Tsitsipas has seen Over 22.5 games in three of his last five matches
The two previous meetings have seen Over 22.5 games
Machac is 3-0 in Masters 1000 opening matches in 2026
Tsitsipas has gone 3-3 in his last six Masters 1000 opening matches
Machac has won five of his seven matches vs players ranked below him in 2026

Machac vs Tsitsipas Head To Head

Currently level at 1-1, with Tsitsipas prevailing in Vienna before Machac won a close four-setter at this year's Australian Open.

Year	Winner	Event	Round	Surface	Score
2026	Tomáš Macháč	Australian Open	Round of 64	Outdoor Hard	6–4, 3–6, 7–6(5), 7–6(5)
2023	Stefanos Tsitsipas	Vienna Open	Round of 16	Indoor Hard	6–3, 4–6, 7–5

Tomas Machac Form Analysis

2026 Record: 12-9
ATP Rome Record: 1-1
Current Ranking: No. 41
Career-High Ranking: No. 20 (2025)

As mentioned countless times, Machac is easily a top 10 talent when fully fit, but he just can't seem to stretch back-to-back tournaments together injury-free.

Machac started the year with a bang, securing his second ATP title in Adelaide with some brilliant tennis before making the third round of the Australian Open, going down to Lorenzo Musetti in five sets.

However, that's when the injuries surfaced again - Machac retired in Montpelllier, went out in the first round of Doha and missed Indian Wells.

Machac reminded everyone what he's capable of as he came closer than anyone to stopping Jannik Sinner's Masters 1000 streak when he took a set off the Italian in Monte Carlo. The Czech went on to make the quarter-finals in Barcelona, but was edged out in a deciding set tiebreak by Cameron Norrie in the Madrid second round.

Stefanos Tsitsipas Form Analysis

2026 Record: 14-10
ATP Rome Record: 17-8
Current Ranking: No. 75
Career-High Ranking: No. 3 (2022)

It's obviously been a challenging last couple of years for Tsitsipas, with the former World No. 3 dropping outside the top 70 and struggling to find a level close to his best tennis.

The clay swing represented a good chance for Tsitsipas to turn things around, but it was a disappointing start as he suffered opening round exits in both Monte Carlo and Munich.

However, Tsitsipas showcased an upturn in form in Madrid, defeating Alexander Bublik on the way to the fourth round, where he was pipped in three tiebreaks by Casper Ruud.

Tsitsipas has a strong 17-8 record in Rome, making at least the quarter-finals four times between 2021 and 2024, highlighted by a runner-up finish to Novak Djokovic in 2022.