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Luciano Darderi vs Rafael Jodar Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Jodar to make first Masters semi-final

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Wed 13 May 2026 02:50

Andrew Hendrie 13 May 2026

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Luciano Darderi vs Rafael Jodar predictions for Wednesday's ATP Rome quarter-final
Jodar's stunning rise includes 15 wins from 17 matches on clay this season
Darderi coming off draining win over Zverev - tough to recover physically & mentally
The match is scheduled to start around 5.00am AEST on Thursday May 14

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Rafael Jodar (Photo by Getty Images)

Luciano Darderi vs Rafael Jodar Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Teenage sensation Rafael Jodar looks to continue his meteoric rise when he faces home favourite Luciano Darderi in the Rome Masters quarter-finals on Wednesday night.

Luciano Darderi vs Rafael Jodar Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Darderi vs Jodar Stats & Trends
Darderi vs Jodar Head To Head
Luciano Darderi Form Analysis
Rafael Jodar Form Analysis
Darderi vs Jodar Live Stream

Jodar has come from nowhere over the last 12 months to become the world's highest-ranked teenager. This is a huge moment for the 19-year-old in more ways than one - most importantly, he's aiming for a first Masters 1000 semi-final, but he can also secure a top 24 seed for Roland Garros with a win here, which would ensure he avoided the top eight seeds until the R16.

The Spaniard has become the youngest Rome quarter-finalist in 21 years by reaching the last eight this tournament, backing up his quarter-final run in his hometown of Madrid earlier this month.

Meanwhile, Darderi is also notching career-firsts in his hometown this tournament, registering a maiden top 10 victory in an extraordinary comeback over Alexander Zverev, recovering from 1-6 3-5 down and saving four match points before dropping a bagel set on the German in the decider.

It's a huge victory, but I don't like Darderi's chances of backing it up 24 hours later without a day's rest. I'm also concerned about the Italian declaring he was struggling at the start of the Zverev match.

"It was a very tough match," Darderi said. "At the start I was not feeling very good physically. At 3-5 in the second set, I was done. I think I had a small chance in the second set when I held for 4-5 and then the tie-break was a lot of pressure for him and me. It is not easy to play here because I am a bit nervous, but it was really nice. It was a good fight mentally from me."

Jodar has been priced at very short odds over the last month or so, but he continues to justify his favouritism - and I like his chances here. Darderi could be struggling from physical fatigue and the mental challenge to back up such a big moment will be tough too. I'm taking Jodar to cover.

Darderi vs Jodar Stats & Trends

Jodar has won 15 of his 17 matches on clay this season
Jodar has covered a -3.5 line in 12 of those 15 wins
Jodar has won nine of his last 12 matches vs higher-ranked players
Jodar is 2-1 in tour-level quarter-finals (one loss vs Sinner)
Darderi is 0-3 in clay quarter-finals vs top 32 players
Darderi has failed to cover a +3.5 line in two of his last three defeats

Darderi vs Jodar Head To Head

This will be the first career meeting between the pair.

Luciano Darderi Form Analysis

2026 Record: 17-10
ATP Rome Record: 6-2
Current Ranking: No. 20
Career-High Ranking: No. 18 (March 2026)

Darderi has carried strong early-season momentum into a career breakthrough, rising into the top 20 for the first time.

The Italian made an immediate impact with a quarter-final run in Auckland before reaching the fourth round of a Grand Slam for the first time at the Australian Open. He then thrived on clay during the Golden Swing, finishing runner-up in Buenos Aires and backing it up with a title in Santiago.

Darderi’s form remained solid with a semi-final appearance in Marrakech, but there were clear struggles at Masters 1000 level leading into this event - opening exits in Indian Wells, Miami and Monte Carlo, along with a second-round loss in Madrid.

That trend has shifted in a seismic way in Rome. Competing at home, Darderi has reached a Masters quarter-final for the first time, registering memorable comeback victories over the likes of Tommy Paul and Alexander Zverev in the process.

Rafael Jodar Form Analysis

2026 Record: 20-8
ATP Rome Record: 3-0
Current Ranking: No. 34
Career-High Ranking: No. 34 (May 2026)

Running out of adjectives to describe Jodar's incredible rise - this time last year he wasn't anywhere near the main draw of a Masters 1000 tournament, now he's advanced into back-to-back quarter-finals.

Jodar has won 15 of his 17 matches on clay, starting with a title in Marrakech before a run to the semi-finals in Barcelona and quarter-finals in Madrid, losing to the in-form Arthur Fils and No. 1 Jannik Sinner.

The 19-year-old has continued his stunning form in Madrid, completing tough wins over Nuno Borges and Matteo Arnaldi before crushing fellow young gun Learner Tien 6-1 6-4, becoming the youngest Rome quarter-finalist since Novak Djokovic 2007.

"I am super happy," Jodar said post-match. "I just try to play the matches and be focused on what I have to do. I am super happy with how I handled the important moments in this match. Learner is a tough opponent."

Darderi vs Jodar Live Stream

Watch and bet on Luciano Darderi vs Rafael Jodar live tennis from Rome.

You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > ATP Rome with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.

Geo-restrictions apply, you'll need a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours to gain access. 18+ terms and conditions apply.

Verdict

Luciano Darderi v Rafael Jodar

Darderi faces a big challenge to back up physically and mentally from his Zverev scalp - Jodar tipped to cover a -3.5 games line & reach a first Masters semi-final.

Jodar -3.5

Games Line

$1.93 - 3 Units

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