Iga Swiatek vs Jessica Pegula Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Resurgent Swiatek to make semi-finals

Andrew Hendrie

Editor

Last updated: Wed 13 May 2026 01:06

Andrew Hendrie 13 May 2026

Share this article

Iga Swiatek vs Jessica Pegula predictions for Wednesday's WTA Rome quarter-final
Swiatek back to her dominant best on clay
Pegula also in top form, but matchup on red clay favours Swiatek
The match is scheduled to start at 9.00pm AEST on Wednesday May 13

Expired

Iga Swiatek (Photo by Getty Images)

Iga Swiatek vs Jessica Pegula Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Iga Swiatek and Jessica Pegula resume their rivalry when the two top five players square off in the Italian Open quarter-finals in Rome on Wednesday.

Iga Swiatek vs Jessica Pegula Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Swiatek vs Pegula Stats & Trends
Swiatek vs Pegula Head To Head
Iga Swiatek Form Analysis
Jessica Pegula Form Analysis
Swiatek vs Pegula Live Stream

Swiatek has been struggling throughout the year, but there's encouraging signs that the four-time French Open champion is rediscovering her dominant best form on the clay of Rome. The Pole dropped just three games in a crushing 6-2 6-1 demolition of Naomi Osaka, which followed up the loss of just a single game against Elisabetta Cocciaretto in the previous round.

Those swashbuckling victories follow a trend for Swiatek in Rome - 20 of her last 21 wins at the tournament have come in straight sets, with 13 of those matches featuring a set win of either a 6-0 or 6-1 score. Clear dominance.

Meanwhile, Pegula has put together an outstanding season and will draw confidence from the fact she's beaten Swiatek in their last two meetings. However, they pair have only played once on clay and that resulted in a one-sided straight sets win for Swiatek.

Despite some titles on Charleston throughout her career, Pegula isn't at her best on European clay and she's struggled when making to this stage of these tournaments. After watching Swiatek's last two matches in Rome, have to back the three-time champion to come through this challenge in straight sets with Under 21.5 total games.

Swiatek vs Pegula Stats & Trends

Swiatek has won 24 of her 27 matches in Rome
20 of Swiatek's last 21 wins in Rome have been in straight sets
19 of Swiatek's last 20 completed matches in Rome have seen Under 21.5 games
Swiatek is 3-1 in Rome quarter-finals, winning the title on three occasions she's prevailed
Pegula has a 1-4 record in European clay court quarter-final matches
Eight of the 11 previous meetings between the pair have finished in straight sets
Swiatek was a 6-3 6-2 winner vs Pegula in their only previous clay meeting

Swiatek vs Pegula Head To Head

Swiatek holds the slight 6-5 advantage, but Pegula has won the last two encounters in straight sets.

Year	Tournament	Surface	Round	Winner	Score
2025	Bad Homburg Open	Grass	Final	Jessica Pegula	6–4, 7–5
2024	US Open	Hard	Quarterfinals	Jessica Pegula	6–2, 6–4
2023	WTA Finals	Hard	Final	Iga Świątek	6–1, 6–0
2023	Canadian Open	Hard	Semifinals	Jessica Pegula	6–2, 6–7(4), 6–4
2023	Qatar Open	Hard	Final	Iga Świątek	6–3, 6–0
2023	United Cup	Hard	Round	Jessica Pegula	6–2, 6–2
2022	San Diego Open	Hard	Semifinals	Iga Świątek	4–6, 6–2, 6–2
2022	US Open	Hard	Quarterfinals	Iga Świątek	6–3, 7–6(4)
2022	French Open	Clay	Quarterfinals	Iga Świątek	6–3, 6–2
2022	Miami Open	Hard	Semifinals	Iga Świątek	6–2, 7–5
2019	Washington Open	Hard	Round of 16	Jessica Pegula	5–7, 6–4, 6–1

Iga Swiatek Form Analysis

2026 Record: 17-8
WTA Rome Record: 24-3
Current Ranking: No. 3
Career-High Ranking: No. 1 (2022)

It's been a challenging season for Swiatek, but she could be in the midst of turning things around in Rome.

Incredibly, Swiatek hasn't advanced to a semi-final since winning the Seoul title in September last year, going 0-4 in quarter-finals throughout 2026.

The Pole had also struggled on clay prior to arriving in Rome, winning just two matches across Stuttgart and Madrid, suffering defeats to Mirra Andreeva and retiring against Ann Li.

However, Swiatek has recaptured her best tennis in Rome. After a three-set dispatch of Caty McNally in her opener, Swiatek has dropped just four games combined in straight set demolitions of Elisabetta Cocciaretto (6-1 6-0) and Naomi Osaka (6-2 6-1).

Swiatek struck 23 winners to 18 unforced errors in the R16 crushing of Osaka, landing 67 per cent of first serves and dictating from start to finish.

Jessica Pegula Form Analysis

2026 Record: 28-5
WTA Rome Record: 8-4
Current Ranking: No. 5
Career-High Ranking: No. 3 (2022)

It's been a magical season for Pegula, who remains entrenched in the top five and a leading contender at every tournament she enters.

In fact, Pegula has only lost against two players throughout 2026 - Elena Rybakina three times at the Australian Open, Indian Wells and Miami, while Marta Kostyuk upstaged her twice in Brisbane and last week on her way to the Madrid title.

With the exception of that Madrid tournament, Pegula has showcased her trademark consistency, reaching at least the quarter-final of every event she's played since the 2025 US Open.

Pegula's captured two WTA titles in Dubai and Charleston in 2026, while she's advanced into her second Rome quarter-final with victories over Zeynep Sonmez, Rebeka Masarova and the in-form Anastasia Potapova.

The American has also been in dominant form, registering three 6-0 bagel sets over the course of her run to the last eight.