ATP Rome Futures Tips - Sinner targets Golden Masters + value outsiders

Sinner has swept the last five Masters 1000 titles dating back to the end of last year and winning an elusive Rome trophy this tournament will see him join Novak Djokovic as the only man to have won all nine Masters events (Djokovic has done this twice). Sinner already became the first man to win five Masters titles in a row when he triumphed last week in Madrid and with Carlos Alcaraz sidelined through injury, he remains an unbackable favourite.

It's a shame that two of the more dangerous players in the field - Arthur Fils and Jakub Mensik - have landed in Sinner's section, with the Italian possibly playing both back-to-back in the third and fourth rounds. The only value backing Sinner is to take a chance on him winning the title without dropping a set - he lost one surprisingly against Benjamin Bonzi in Madrid, but swept the Indian Wells and Miami titles without losing one.

With Sinner the overwhelming favourite and bookmakers yet to release odds at the time of writing, here's a list of players I think offer some value in Rome after the draw was made (qualifiers yet to be placed).

In classic American fashion, Paul hasn't really given much though to the European clay swing so far, with his only match ending in an opening round defeat to Thiago Augustin Tirante in Madrid. However, for whatever reason, Paul absolutely thrives in Rome - he's won eight of his last 10 matches at the tournament, reaching the semi-finals in 2024 and 2025. He's landed in the Alexander Zverev and Alex de Minaur quarter and both look vulnerable at the Foro Italico - a third straight semi-final is admittedly unlikely, but certainly within the realms of possibility. Paul won the Houston title on clay last month for what it's worth too.

Jodar has also landed in the Zverev/De Minaur quarter and the rising superstar has a great chance for another deep run following his Madrid quarter-final showing, where he came closer than anyone to troubling Sinner. The 19-year-old has won 16 of his last 19 matches and is seeded to face de Minaur in the third round after crushing the Aussie in straight sets in Madrid. Alexander Bublik and Learner Tien are the projected seeded players waiting in the R16, with both easily beatable on clay. Another run to a Masters 1000 quarter-final is more than a good chance.

Bit of a left-field option here, but I'm hoping the value is huge. Tabilo has only played Rome once before (2024) and he made a stunning run to the semi-finals, beating Novak Djokovic along the way and coming within a few points of defeating Zverev before going down 1-6 7-6(4) 6-2. Tabilo is coming off a title win at the strong Aix-en-Provence Challenger last week and he's only lost to Jiri Lehecka and Joao Fonseca on European clay so far this season. After facing a qualifier in Round 1, Tabilo would meet Fran Cerundolo in the second round, who he leads the H2H 1-0. Lorenzo Musetti, Lehecka, Casper Ruud and Djokovic are all present in this quarter, but if the odds for a quarter win are north of $50, a tiny stake is worth the punt.

Huge outsider, but hear me out. Arnaldi has been dealing with a chronic foot problem, which has seen him drop down the rankings after peaking at No. 29 last year. It appears as if the Italian has recovered after taking out the strong Cagliari Challenger last week, defeating Hubert Hurkacz in straight sets in the final and earning a wildcard into the Rome main draw. Arnaldi opens against Jaume Munar, who is coming back from his own injury and is rusty before a second round with the vulnerable De Minaur. Arnaldi is more than capable of the upset there in front of a raucous home crowd and then a potential third round with Jodar would be very interesting. Someone to keep an eye on.