ATP Indian Wells Outright Tips & Predictions - Alcaraz set for third BNP Paribas Open title; Fils can surprise in open third quarter

The nights are cold. The day's are hot. The air is heavy. The balls will fluff. The bounce is high and these courts compliment topspin. In short, it's absolutely perfect conditions for Carlitos in his pursuit of a third Indian Wells title.

You can view the full and complete ATP Indian Wells draw below.

Alcaraz on a heater; Korda can surprise

Alcaraz is the undisputed World No. 1 and a perfect 12-0 for the year after making history at the Australian Open and backing it up with the Doha silverware last month. A two-time champion at Coachella Valley, it's tough to see anyone - even Jannik Sinner - troubling Alcaraz in these high-bouncing and slow desert conditions.

The Spaniard has received a relatively kind draw for me - and I don't think his seeded opponent for the quarter-finals - Alex de Minaur - will advance that far, not that it would be any problems whatsoever for Alcaraz if he did. De Minaur is a modest 9-7 lifetime at Indian Wells and simply doesn't like the high bounce and slow courts - the Aussie much prefers a slicker surface, where a low bounce compliments his flat hitting. While we're on the topic, it looks like the perfect opportunity for Sebastian Korda to make a run to the quarter-finals.

Korda bounced back to form by taking out the title in a strong Delray Beach field last month and then wisely pulled out of Acapulco, meaning he's fresh as a daisy for this tournament. I could easily see Korda upsetting de Minaur in the second round and going on a run.

But, back to Alcaraz - he'll open against either Grigor Dimitrov or Terence Atmane and while that's a potentially tricky opening match, he should figure it out. He'll only get stronger as the tournament goes on and I just don't see anyone doing much damage to him if he maintains his 2026 form.

Something isn't quite right in the Jannik Sinner camp. The Italian didn't look at all comfortable throughout the Australian Open, almost capitulating in the heat against Eliot Spizzirri in the third round, while Luciano Darderi was close to extending his compatriot to a fourth set the next round. Sinner was then outplayed by 38-year-old Novak Djokovic in the semi-finals before being upstaged in the Doha quarter-finals by 20-year-old Jakub Mensik.

Sinner has never made the final at Indian Wells and on current form, he looks vulnerable. But even in a vulnerable state, Sinner is still levels above the majority of the tour. He's in the same quarter as Ben Shelton for what seems like the umpteenth time and Sinner won't be complaining about that - he's won the last 23 sets between the pair. Shelton himself certainly isn't ensured of making the last eight - he could face countryman Learner Tien in the third round.

Tien is coming off his maiden Grand Slam quarter-final at the Australian Open and is someone who should love these conditions with his topspin lefty game. Tien beat Shelton in their only previous encounter last year and it wouldn't be surprising in the slightest if he did so again and made the last eight of another big tournament.

My value pick for the tournament is Arthur Fils to make a run to the semi-finals.

Fils was well on his way to the top 10 midway through last year before being struck down by a back injury that ultimately caused him to miss the better part of eight months. The Frenchman took his time with returning to the tour and he looks in great shape, making the Doha final last month.

The 21-year-old made the quarter-finals at Indian Wells last year and crucially, he beat Lorenzo Musetti along the way. The pair are scheduled to meet in the third round and Musetti is coming off his own injury problems that forced him to retire at the Australian Open. He hasn't played since. I'm not convinced Felix Auger-Aliassime can back up his fantastic 2025 campaign and Alexander Zverev - who was last seen losing to Miomir Kecmanovic in the second round of Acapulco - has never been beyond the quarter-finals at Indian Wells. The chance is there for Fils.

Novak Djokovic also appears to have a manageable draw to do deep.

The five-time Indian Wells champion is in action for the first time since making the Australian Open final, landing in the same section has defending IW champ Jack Draper, who is still a walking question mark after his long-term arm injury. Taylor Fritz is dealing with various injury issues, most notably his knee tendonitis and has struggled in the lead-in tournaments, failing to land a title in Dallas or Delray.

The other big name in this quarter - Daniil Medvedev - is currently stranded in Dubai at the time of writing and might not even make the tournament. If he does, it will be with limited preparation. The Djoker should like what he sees here.