Brisbane Lions vs Essendon AFL Round 18 Tips - Lions disposals fest on the cards in another Bomber blowout
- The game will be played at Gabba on Sunday, 12th July, with the bounce at 4:40 PM (AEST)
- Can the Bombers avoid another heavy loss?
- Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet
Brisbane Lions vs Essendon Expert Prediction
- Brisbane Lions vs Essendon Expert Prediction
- Head to Head Stats
- Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
- Essendon Form Analysis
- Brisbane Lions vs Essendon Team List & News
- Brisbane Lions Team News
- Essendon Team News
- Brisbane Lions vs Essendon AFL 2026 Round 18 FAQ’s
Another heavy Essendon defeat looks on the cards when the Bombers head to the Gabba.
The biggest betting question surrounds the line, which has been set at a massive 62.5 points. Brisbane are certainly capable of covering that number, but it will largely come down to their accuracy in front of goal. If the Lions convert their opportunities, they can win by 10 goals or more. If they waste chances, Essendon may sneak inside the handicap despite being comprehensively outplayed.
It's enough of a gamble to lean slightly towards Brisbane covering, but the stronger betting play lies in the player props and disposal markets.
Essendon have consistently allowed opposition sides to control possession, particularly through uncontested ball movement, and Brisbane are one of the competition's best teams at punishing that style of defence. The Bombers have conceded more disposals than any side in the AFL this season and gave up 321 uncontested possessions against North Melbourne two weeks ago — the highest total by any team in a match this year — before St Kilda almost matched that figure with 317 last weekend.
That creates an ideal matchup for Brisbane's midfield to rack up numbers, while the Lions' ball movement should provide their forwards with plenty of opportunities inside 50. Will Ashcroft and Lachie Neale shape as the obvious two that will go 30+ and for value, Levi Ashcroft can register anything upwards of 20. Kai Lohmann is your player for multiple goals, given his five goal outing against the Cats last weekend, as well as his recent record in this matchup.
- Essendon have conceded an average of 285 uncontested disposals in the past five rounds.
- Will Ashcroft has had 30+ disposals in each of his past three matches.
- Lachie Neale has averaged 32 disposals in his past four matches against the Bombers.
- Kai Lohmann comes off five goals and has kicked 10 in his past three against the Bombers.
Head to Head Stats
Brisbane have won the past four between the two sides by an average margin of 33 points. Three of those were at the GABBA.
Standout player performances in the recent head to heads have come from;
- Will Ashcroft (Lions)- 25+ disposals in each of his four matches against the Bombers.
- Lachie Neale (Lions)- averaging 32 disposals in his last four matches against Essendon.
- Kai Lohmann (Lions)- 10 goals in three appearances against the Bombers.
- Peter Wright (Dons)- 12 goals in his past four matches against the Lions.
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
Brisbane come into Round 18 sitting firmly in the top-four race with a 10-6 record and have rediscovered the form that made them premiership favourites earlier in the season. After a brief mid-season slump, the Lions have now won four consecutive matches, including statement victories over fellow finalists Sydney and Geelong.
Their 22-point win over the Cats at GMHBA Stadium showcased Brisbane at its damaging best. An explosive eight-goal opening quarter laid the foundation before the Lions responded every time Geelong threatened, with their efficiency inside 50 and run-and-carry proving decisive. Brisbane's ability to move the ball quickly continues to be one of the competition's biggest weapons, while their confidence has grown significantly over the past month.
Will Ashcroft was outstanding with 32 disposals and has now recorded 30 or more in his past three matches. Lachie Neale finished with 28 disposals despite briefly leaving the field for a head injury assessment, while Darcy Wilmot continued his outstanding season with 25+ disposals for the sixth time in his past seven matches.
The Lions continue to fire in attack. Kai Lohmann booted five goals against Geelong, Logan Morris added three to make it 16 goals across his past four matches, while Zac Bailey also kicked three and has now booted multiple goals in each of his past three outings.
Essendon Form Analysis
Essendon have won just one match this season and remain anchored to the bottom of the ladder. They parted ways with Brad Scott last month and have lost five matches in a row under Dean Solomon, with the most recent of those coming against St Kilda by 67 points.
The Bombers managed just 50 points in that defeat and are averaging only 57 points across their past five matches. Their defensive issues continue to be exposed, with opposition sides repeatedly finding uncontested possession and moving the ball with ease. Essendon have conceded more disposals than any team in the AFL this season and continue to struggle to contain opposition midfields.
Zach Merrett battled hard again with 28 disposals against the Saints and has now collected 25 or more in eight of his past nine matches. Nate Caddy remains one of the few positives, kicking three goals last week and at least two in eight of his past 10 appearances.
Brisbane Lions vs Essendon Team List & News
To be updated after team selection on Thursday.
Brisbane Lions Team News
The Lions are set to regain reinforcements, with Dayne Zorko expected to be available after missing the win over Geelong, while Oscar Allen is targeting a return the following week. Darcy Gardiner is the major injury concern after suffering a suspected hamstring injury against the Cats and is expected to miss. Zac Bailey was taken off late with hamstring tightness as a precaution and is not expected to miss, while Lachie Neale passed his head injury assessment after a heavy knock and returned to finish the match.
Essendon Team News
Essendon came through the loss to St Kilda without any fresh injuries. Selection is expected to focus on tightening the Bombers' defensive structure after another disappointing performance without the ball, while the club will continue to give opportunities to its emerging talent as it builds towards the future. Nate Caddy's strong form should again see him remain a focal point inside 50.
Brisbane Lions vs Essendon AFL 2026 Round 18 FAQ’s
- How to watch Brisbane Lions vs Essendon AFL 2026 Round 18?
You can watch the Brisbane Lions vs Essendon AFL 2026 Round 18 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.
- How to buy tickets to Brisbane Lions vs Essendon AFL 2026 Round 18?
To buy tickets to the Brisbane Lions vs Essendon AFL 2026 Round 18 game check the AFL website or the official Brisbane Lions site
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